Surprise 85388

Maricopa County, AZ · 14,052 properties · updated 7/5/2026

Should you buy here?buyer-timing lens

58affordability /100

Buyer leverage is seller slight; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.

Payment burden
25.3%
affordable
Days on market
55
daily
Price cuts
33.1%
of active
Valuation
-11.9%
vs assessor
Look up an address
62
/100
Stable
stable · seller slight · prices easing year-over-year.
Price trend
35
Affordability
85
Valuation
70
Economic health
58

Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.

Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens

30/ 100SellerBalancedBuyer
Seller's Market
DOM: 73d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)25
Valuation Gap (25%)25
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)50
Cancellation Rate (10%)25
Days on Market (5%)75

Seller-favored market in 85388. Expect to pay at or near list price. Payment burden: 25.3% of median income. Median days on market: 73. Renting is approximately 38% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 16.5).

Buyer Caution

Seller's market. Be prepared to pay near list price.

Competitive market similar to 2021-2022 — limited inventory driving prices above fundamentals.
STABLESELLER SLIGHT

Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Sellers hold a slight edge. Prices down 1.5% YoY.

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Market snapshoteach number, once

Median price
$447,527
▾ 1.5% YoY
Days on market
55
daily · zip_data
Median rent
$2,266
ZORI
Investor score
59/100
cash-flow lens
Active listings
249
90-day

Valuation3 lenses, different anchors

vs assessor
-11.9%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$394,150
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+71.3%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Maricopa+71.3%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Pricing detail
Price / sqft$415
Price-to-income4.2×

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How 85388 ranks in AZ
percentile vs all Arizona ZIPs · n=398
Market velocity64%
Supply tightness76%
Affordability82%
Investment yield81%
Appreciation30%

Affordability, supply & momentum

54SUPPLY
Tight MarketSupply Tightness

Supply is below normal — sellers are favored but buyers still have options.

Months of Supply2.6 mo
Days on Market55d
Inv vs History+16.4%
Listing Density24.7/1k
Affordability — payment burden
Monthly payment (P&I)$2,261
Payment burden25.3%
Median income · ZIP$107,131
Mortgage rate6.49% · 30yr
Total monthly own$2,708
Monthly rent$2,266
Market dynamics
Price cut %33.1%
Momentumstable
LeverageSELLER SLIGHT
Months of supply2.6
Sales (90d)0
Investment analysis
Median rent$2,266
Price-to-rent16.5
Est. cap rate3.9%
Buy vs rentneutral

Livability

Walk score1
Transit score—
Bike score—
Places & amenities in ZIP 85388 · 51 mapped
Leaflet © OpenStreetMap contributors © CARTO
Parks & open space11
Surprise Farms Skate ParkSierra Montana ParkSurprise Farms Community ParkSouth mountainside parkNorth Mountainside ParkSurprise Farms I Park+5 more
Trails1
Canal Trail
Recreation & aquatics6
F45 TrainingClub PilatesEstia Surprise FarmsOasis Swim CenterEos FitnessSterling Grove Golf Course
Venues & culture2
Fat CatsWaddell
Dining & cafés26
Dutch Bros. CoffeeStarbucksStarbucksStarbucksCooper's HawkBuffalo Wild Wings+20 more
Land & water3
Trilby Wash BasinRemote Control Boat PondCanal Crossing
Getting around1
Village at Prasada (West)
Weekend range9
Gila River Waterfowl Management Area · national conservation area22 mi
Hells Canyon Wilderness Area · wilderness area24 mi
Sierra Estrella Wilderness Area · wilderness area30 mi
North Maricopa Mountains Wilderness Area · wilderness area35 mi
Hassayampa River Canyon Wilderness Area · wilderness area37 mi
Hummingbird Springs Wilderness Area · wilderness area37 mi
Castle Creek Wilderness · wilderness area42 mi
Signal Mountain Wilderness Area · wilderness area42 mi
Woolsey Peak Wilderness Area · wilderness area43 mi

Straight-line distance from the ZIP centroid (USGS PAD-US).

1,249 ft above sea level elevation · USGS 3DEPSurprise: incorporated/founded 1937 · Wikidata

Place data: USGS 3D Elevation Program · USGS Protected Areas Database (PAD-US) · Wikidata · © OpenStreetMap contributors — licensed ODbL (OpenStreetMap), CC0 (Wikidata) and US public domain (USGS, NPS, Census). Every place shown comes from the named sources; nothing is editorialized.

Historical trends

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Maricopa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration

ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.

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