Surprise 85378

Maricopa County, AZ · 3,410 properties · updated 7/5/2026

Should you buy here?buyer-timing lens

47affordability /100

Buyer leverage is balanced; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.

Payment burden

32.2%

stretched

Days on market

daily

Price cuts

28.7%

of active

Look up an address

/100

Mixed

stable · balanced · prices easing year-over-year.

Price trend

Affordability

Economic health

Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.

Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens

Seller's Market

Needs 6.8% correction for affordability

DOM: 57d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly

Score Components

Payment Burden (25%)50

Valuation Gap (25%)10

Supply & Demand (20%)20

Buy vs Rent (15%)50

Cancellation Rate (10%)50

Days on Market (5%)60

Seller-favored market in 85378. Expect to pay at or near list price. Payment burden: 32.3% of median income. Median days on market: 57. Renting is approximately 38% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 16.5).

Buyer Caution

Seller's market. Be prepared to pay near list price.

Competitive market similar to 2021-2022 — limited inventory driving prices above fundamentals.

STABLEBALANCED

Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers.

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Market snapshoteach number, once

Median price

$334,382

▾ 0.9% YoY

Days on market

daily · zip_data

Median rent

$1,689

ZORI

Investor score

60/100

cash-flow lens

Active listings

90-day

Valuation3 lenses, different anchors

vs assessor

—

Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.

Avg assessor$0

county CAMA · properties_v

vs income

—

Fair-value model not available for this market.

fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage

vs county comps

+71.3%

County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.

Maricopa+71.3%

Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap

Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.

Pricing detail

Price / sqft$236

Price-to-income5.3×

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How 85378 ranks in AZ

percentile vs all Arizona ZIPs · n=398

Market velocity84%

Supply tightness91%

Affordability48%

Investment yield81%

Appreciation42%

Affordability, supply & momentum

73SUPPLY

Tight MarketSupply Tightness

Supply is below normal — sellers are favored but buyers still have options.

Months of Supply2.6 mo

Days on Market43d

Inv vs History-3.3%

Listing Density9.1/1k

Affordability — payment burden

Monthly payment (P&I)$1,689

Payment burden32.2%

Median income · ZIP$62,881

Mortgage rate6.49% · 30yr

Total monthly own$2,023

Monthly rent$1,689

Market dynamics

Price cut %28.7%

Momentumstable

LeverageBALANCED

Months of supply2.6

Sales (90d)0

Investment analysis

Median rent$1,689

Price-to-rent16.5

Est. cap rate3.9%

Buy vs rentneutral

Livability

Walk score8

Transit score—

Bike score—

Places & amenities in ZIP 85378 · 16 mapped

Leaflet © OpenStreetMap contributors © CARTO

Parks & open space4

Floyd Gaines Park Softball FieldCentennial Friendship ParkGaines Park Multipurpose FieldJohnson Townhomes Park

Recreation & aquatics4

Villanueva Community CenterSurprise Senior CenterHollyhock Community PoolCoyote Lakes Golf Club

Venues & culture2

Hollyhock LibraryWHAM Art Center

Dining & cafés3

Scooter's CoffeePeter Piper PizzaTivoli Gardens

Getting around2

Surprise Park and RideCrossroads Towne Center

Weekend range10

Hells Canyon Wilderness Area · wilderness area21 mi

Gila River Waterfowl Management Area · national conservation area28 mi

Sierra Estrella Wilderness Area · wilderness area30 mi

Hassayampa River Canyon Wilderness Area · wilderness area36 mi

Castle Creek Wilderness · wilderness area39 mi

North Maricopa Mountains Wilderness Area · wilderness area39 mi

Mazatzal Wilderness · wilderness area48 mi

Woolsey Peak Wilderness Area · wilderness area48 mi

Signal Mountain Wilderness Area · wilderness area49 mi

Pine Mountain Wilderness · wilderness area53 mi

Straight-line distance from the ZIP centroid (USGS PAD-US).

1,156 ft above sea level elevation · USGS 3DEP2 protected / open-space parcels · USGS PAD-USSurprise: incorporated/founded 1937 · Wikidata

Place data: USGS 3D Elevation Program · USGS Protected Areas Database (PAD-US) · Wikidata · © OpenStreetMap contributors — licensed ODbL (OpenStreetMap), CC0 (Wikidata) and US public domain (USGS, NPS, Census). Every place shown comes from the named sources; nothing is editorialized.

Historical trends

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Maricopa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration

ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.

ZIP 85378→Maricopa County, AZ

12-Month Direction

-5Stable

Confidence

100%

DeterioratingStableImproving

BuildersLens Market Intelligence

Market Score

41· Weak

Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.

Payment Burden44

33.4%

stretched

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Buy vs Rent6

1.914x

rent advantage

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Valuation10

+71.3%

overvalued

Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15