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Surprise 85378 is in Maricopa County, AZ, part of the Phoenix Metro. The typical home value in Surprise 85378 is $329,961 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 1.1% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 57 days, and 31% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 3.7 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 85378 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Maricopa County's 128 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $447,215, so 85378 sits 26% below the county middle. Typical rent is $1,892 a month (Zillow Observed Rent Index, September 2026). Lotvox holds county assessor records for 3,410 properties in 85378.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 85378 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 85378 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 57 days with 3.7 months of supply.
What do homes in 85378 sell for?
The typical home value in 85378 is $329,961 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 1.1% in a year. County records put the median at about $236 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 85378?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 85378 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 85378 compare to Maricopa County?
85378's typical value of $329,961 compares with a middle value of $447,215 across Maricopa County's 128 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 85378 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Ownership cost: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), 20% down, 30-year loan at the current mortgage rate, plus 1.2% of the price a year.
Rent to price — the investor's question first
14.5×
price to annual rent
Lower is friendlier to a buy-to-let case. This is a ratio of published medians, not a yield on any particular property.
Price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Annual rent: 12 months of Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI).
41
/100
Mixed
stable · balanced · prices easing year-over-year.
Price trend
35
Affordability
45
Economic health
47
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Seller's Market
Needs 13.3% correction for affordability
DOM: 57d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)50
Cancellation Rate (10%)50
Days on Market (5%)60
Seller-favored market in 85378. Expect to pay at or near list price. Payment burden: 32.0% of median income. Median days on market: 57. Renting is approximately 38% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 16.5).
Buyer Caution
Seller's market. Be prepared to pay near list price.
Competitive market similar to 2021-2022 — limited inventory driving prices above fundamentals.
STABLEBALANCED
Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers. Prices down 1.1% YoY.
Turnover Index · Coming soonLotvox Turnover Index needs 30 recorded sales before a grade is published.
Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
—
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$0
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+70.4%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Maricopa+70.4%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Housing pulse — Housing pulse could not be loaded (429).
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Maricopa.
Aggregate median +2.0% YoY in Maricopa, AZ (county), but the under-$500k tier is +0.0% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 55.5% to 53.5% (-1.9pp) and the $1M+ share from 9.6% to 10.6% (+1.0pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
5 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$137k
$217
13
13.4%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$365k
$239
79
81.4%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$585k
$272
15,405
—
COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$750k–$1M
$835k
$319
4,948
—
COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$1M–$1.5M
$1.19M
$397
2,883
—
COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$1.5M–$2M
$1.69M
$500
1,202
—
COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$2M+
$3.10M
$686
1,907
—
COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
All sales (the headline median)
$365k
$238
97
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Maricopa, AZ), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 85378.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 85378→Maricopa County, AZ
12-Month Direction
-7Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
41· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
34.6%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Price-to-rent
14.5x
favors buying
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation11
+70.4%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
3.7 mo
balanced
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
32/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.8%
AZ 4.5%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0855d ago
Poverty Rate
11.1%
AZ 12.7%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$85,518
AZ $77,970US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
99.3
AZ 99.3US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$462,851
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
