Surprise 85387

Maricopa County, AZ · 23,298 properties · updated 7/5/2026

Should you buy here?buyer-timing lens

52affordability /100

Buyer leverage is seller slight; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.

Payment burden

28.9%

stretched

Days on market

105

daily

Price cuts

36.3%

of active

Valuation

-66.3%

vs assessor

Look up an address

/100

Mixed

stable · seller slight · prices easing year-over-year.

Price trend

Affordability

Valuation

Economic health

Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.

Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens

Balanced Market

DOM: 90d (rising) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly

Score Components

Payment Burden (25%)25

Valuation Gap (25%)80

Supply & Demand (20%)20

Buy vs Rent (15%)50

Cancellation Rate (10%)100

Days on Market (5%)75

Balanced market in 85387. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 28.9% of median income. Median days on market: 90. Renting is approximately 47% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 17.7). Market appears 24% overpriced vs. assessed values.

Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.

STABLESELLER SLIGHT

Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Sellers hold a slight edge. Prices down 1.4% YoY.

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Market snapshoteach number, once

Median price

$454,958

▾ 1.4% YoY

Days on market

105

daily · zip_data

Median rent

$2,146

ZORI

Investor score

57/100

cash-flow lens

Active listings

574

90-day

Valuation3 lenses, different anchors

vs assessor

-66.3%

Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.

Avg assessor$153,300

county CAMA · properties_v

vs income

—

Fair-value model not available for this market.

fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage

vs county comps

+71.3%

County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.

Maricopa+71.3%

Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap

Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.

Pricing detail

Price / sqft$255

Price-to-income4.8×

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How 85387 ranks in AZ

percentile vs all Arizona ZIPs · n=398

Market velocity19%

Supply tightness64%

Affordability61%

Investment yield76%

Appreciation32%

Affordability, supply & momentum

51SUPPLY

Tight MarketSupply Tightness

Supply is below normal — sellers are favored but buyers still have options.

Months of Supply2.6 mo

Days on Market105d

Inv vs History-16.8%

Listing Density83.6/1k

Affordability — payment burden

Monthly payment (P&I)$2,298

Payment burden28.9%

Median income · ZIP$95,472

Mortgage rate6.49% · 30yr

Total monthly own$2,753

Monthly rent$2,146

Market dynamics

Price cut %36.3%

Momentumstable

LeverageSELLER SLIGHT

Months of supply2.6

Sales (90d)0

Investment analysis

Median rent$2,146

Price-to-rent17.7

Est. cap rate3.7%

Buy vs rentneutral

Livability

Walk score—

Transit score2

Bike score—

Places & amenities in ZIP 85387 · 36 mapped

Leaflet © OpenStreetMap contributors © CARTO

Parks & open space10

Desert Oasis of Surprise ParkSurprise Section 10 Pocket ParkAsante Community ParkSunset ParkAsante ParkEscalante Community Park+4 more

Trails1

Maricopa Trail

Recreation & aquatics6

Mary Lou Fulton Aquatic CenterCimarron CenterAsante Development Area 3 Community CenterVisara Community CenterPaloma Creek Amenity CenterCimarron Golf Club

Venues & culture2

Asante LibraryHome Mission Cemetery

Dining & cafés5

Black Rock CoffeeFirst WatchStarbucksBarro's PizzaThai Chili 2go

Land & water9

Bunker TankLake BonitaPicacho WashAsante Heritage LakeBeardsley CanalPadelford Wash+3 more

Getting around2

Luke AAF Auxiliary #1 (historical)Asante Trails Commercial

Weekend range10

Hells Canyon Wilderness Area · wilderness area17 mi

Gila River Waterfowl Management Area · national conservation area29 mi

Hassayampa River Canyon Wilderness Area · wilderness area29 mi

Castle Creek Wilderness · wilderness area35 mi

Hummingbird Springs Wilderness Area · wilderness area37 mi

Sierra Estrella Wilderness Area · wilderness area37 mi

North Maricopa Mountains Wilderness Area · wilderness area42 mi

Signal Mountain Wilderness Area · wilderness area47 mi

Woolsey Peak Wilderness Area · wilderness area48 mi

Pine Mountain Wilderness · wilderness area54 mi

Straight-line distance from the ZIP centroid (USGS PAD-US).

1,422 ft above sea level elevation · USGS 3DEP1 protected / open-space parcels · USGS PAD-USSurprise: incorporated/founded 1937 · Wikidata

Place data: USGS 3D Elevation Program · USGS Protected Areas Database (PAD-US) · Wikidata · © OpenStreetMap contributors — licensed ODbL (OpenStreetMap), CC0 (Wikidata) and US public domain (USGS, NPS, Census). Every place shown comes from the named sources; nothing is editorialized.

Historical trends

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Maricopa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration

ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.

ZIP 85387→Maricopa County, AZ

12-Month Direction

-5Stable

Confidence

100%

DeterioratingStableImproving

BuildersLens Market Intelligence

Market Score

41· Weak

Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.

Payment Burden44

33.4%

stretched

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Buy vs Rent6

1.914x

rent advantage

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Valuation10

+71.3%

overvalued

Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15