Mesa 85215

Maricopa County, AZ · 9,859 properties · updated 7/5/2026

Should you buy here?buyer-timing lens

44affordability /100

Buyer leverage is seller slight; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.

Payment burden
34.1%
stretched
Days on market
61
daily
Price cuts
34.0%
of active
Valuation
-50.6%
vs assessor
Look up an address
37
/100
Weak
stable · seller slight · prices easing year-over-year.
Price trend
35
Affordability
45
Valuation
20
Economic health
44

Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.

Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens

35/ 100SellerBalancedBuyer
Seller's Market
Needs 12% correction for affordability
DOM: 73d (rising) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)50
Cancellation Rate (10%)50
Days on Market (5%)75

Seller-favored market in 85215. Expect to pay at or near list price. Payment burden: 34.1% of median income. Median days on market: 73. Renting is approximately 66% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 19.9).

Buyer Caution

Seller's market. Be prepared to pay near list price.

Competitive market similar to 2021-2022 — limited inventory driving prices above fundamentals.
STABLESELLER SLIGHT

Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Sellers hold a slight edge. Prices down 1.1% YoY.

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Market snapshoteach number, once

Median price
$507,836
▾ 1.1% YoY
Days on market
61
daily · zip_data
Median rent
$2,125
ZORI
Investor score
48/100
cash-flow lens
Active listings
119
90-day

Valuation3 lenses, different anchors

vs assessor
-50.6%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$250,800
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+71.3%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Maricopa+71.3%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Pricing detail
Price / sqft$321
Price-to-income5.6×

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How 85215 ranks in AZ
percentile vs all Arizona ZIPs · n=398
Market velocity53%
Supply tightness76%
Affordability40%
Investment yield65%
Appreciation38%

Affordability, supply & momentum

59SUPPLY
Tight MarketSupply Tightness

Supply is below normal — sellers are favored but buyers still have options.

Months of Supply2.6 mo
Days on Market61d
Inv vs History+8.0%
Listing Density15.8/1k
Affordability — payment burden
Monthly payment (P&I)$2,565
Payment burden34.1%
Median income · ZIP$90,310
Mortgage rate6.49% · 30yr
Total monthly own$3,073
Monthly rent$2,125
Market dynamics
Price cut %34.0%
Momentumstable
LeverageSELLER SLIGHT
Months of supply2.6
Sales (90d)0
Investment analysis
Median rent$2,125
Price-to-rent19.9
Est. cap rate3.3%
Buy vs rentneutral

Livability

Walk score9
Transit score1
Bike score—
Places & amenities in ZIP 85215 · 149 mapped
Leaflet © OpenStreetMap contributors © CARTO
Parks & open space7
Desert Trails ParkSummit ParkQuail Run ParkFalcon Field ParkRed Rock ParkSunset Park+1 more
Trails54
Granite Reef Dam Road (Closed)Maricopa TrailJumping Jack's CutWild Horse TrailLance's TrailLower Salt River Interpretive Trail+48 more
Recreation & aquatics16
Orangetheory FitnessF45 TrainingF45 TrainingClub PilatesLA FitnessExhale Yoga AZ+10 more
Venues & culture5
Arizona Commemorative Air Force MuseumFat Cat's - MesaSaguaro LakeVerde RiverChamplin Fighter Museum
Dining & cafés35
Board & BattenStarbucksStarbucksStarbucksHava JavaRed White and Brew+29 more
Land & water28
Saguaro LakeRoosevelt CanalWillow Springs Basin TankBagley TankSalt RiverSchlechts Butte+22 more
Getting around3
Falcon FieldValley Metro Mesa Bus FacilityPower Road Park and Ride
Weekend range9
Usdi Bureau Of Reclamation, Central Arizona Project, Orme Dam Water Reserve Withdrawal · national conservation area6 mi
Superstition Wilderness Water Sources, Plo 5368 Watershed Withdrawal · national conservation area13 mi
Four Peaks Wilderness · wilderness area17 mi
Three-Bar Watersheds Research Area, Plo 3263 Watershed Withdrawal · national conservation area22 mi
McFarland State Historic Park · state park35 mi
White Canyon Wilderness Area · wilderness area36 mi
Salome Wilderness · wilderness area38 mi
Mazatzal Wilderness · wilderness area40 mi
Hellsgate Wilderness · wilderness area53 mi

Straight-line distance from the ZIP centroid (USGS PAD-US).

1,853 ft above sea level elevation · USGS 3DEP15 protected / open-space parcels · USGS PAD-USMesa: incorporated/founded 1878 · Wikidata

Place data: NPS National Register of Historic Places · USGS 3D Elevation Program · USGS Protected Areas Database (PAD-US) · Wikidata · © OpenStreetMap contributors — licensed ODbL (OpenStreetMap), CC0 (Wikidata) and US public domain (USGS, NPS, Census). Every place shown comes from the named sources; nothing is editorialized.

Historical trends

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Maricopa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration

ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.

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Phoenix Metro·Overpriced ZIPs·Investor ZIPs·View on Map·Maricopa County