Mesa 85209

Maricopa County, AZ · 19,606 properties · updated 7/26/2026

Should you buy here?buyer-timing lens

45affordability /100

Buyer leverage is seller slight; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.

Payment burden

34.2%

stretched

Days on market

daily

Price cuts

28.0%

of active

Valuation

+44.4%

vs assessor

Look up an address

/100

Mixed

stable · seller slight · prices easing year-over-year.

Price trend

Affordability

Valuation

Economic health

Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.

Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens

Balanced Market

Needs 12.3% correction for affordability

DOM: 69d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly

Score Components

Payment Burden (25%)50

Valuation Gap (25%)40

Supply & Demand (20%)20

Buy vs Rent (15%)75

Cancellation Rate (10%)25

Days on Market (5%)75

Balanced market in 85209. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 33.5% of median income. Median days on market: 69. Renting is approximately 68% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 20.2).

Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.

STABLESELLER SLIGHT

Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Sellers hold a slight edge.

Turnover Index · Live in this ZIPBacktest: 21.9% of later sellers were already in the top 20% (random = 20%, 32 held-out sales) · 12,017 parcels scored nightly

How the score works Accuracy by ZIP Farm territory available · Tier A $299/mo

Address lookup$99 report path

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<iframe src="https://lotvox.com/embed/zip/85209" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden;max-width:640px" loading="lazy" title="Mesa 85209 — Lotvox market card"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui;margin:4px 0 0"><a href="https://lotvox.com/phoenix/zip/85209?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=backlink">Mesa 85209 housing market data</a> by <a href="https://lotvox.com/">Lotvox</a></p>

Market snapshoteach number, once

Median price

$443,730

▾ 0.6% YoY

Days on market

daily · zip_data

Median rent

$1,840

ZORI

Investor score

49/100

cash-flow lens

Active listings

159

90-day

Valuation3 lenses, different anchors

vs assessor

+44.4%

Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.

Avg assessor$640,950

county CAMA · properties_v

vs income

—

Fair-value model not available for this market.

fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage

vs county comps

+70.4%

County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.

Maricopa+70.4%

Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap

Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.

Pricing detail

Price / sqft$443

Price-to-income5.5×

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How 85209 ranks in AZ

percentile vs all Arizona ZIPs · n=398

Market velocity60%

Supply tightness79%

Affordability43%

Investment yield60%

Appreciation44%

Affordability, supply & momentum

69SUPPLY

Tight MarketSupply Tightness

Supply is below normal — sellers are favored but buyers still have options.

Months of Supply2.6 mo

Days on Market57d

Inv vs History-13.2%

Listing Density9.1/1k

Affordability — payment burden

Monthly payment (P&I)$2,293

Payment burden34.2%

Median income · ZIP$80,498

Mortgage rate6.71% · 30yr

Total monthly own$2,737

Monthly rent$1,840

Market dynamics

Price cut %28.0%

Momentumstable

LeverageSELLER SLIGHT

Months of supply2.6

Sales (90d)0

Investment analysis

Median rent$1,840

Price-to-rent20.2

Est. cap rate3.2%

Buy vs rentfavors renting

Livability

Walk score6

Transit score2

Bike score—

Historical trends

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Price bandsmix-shift

Price Bands — the median behind the median

A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Maricopa.

Aggregate median +2.0% YoY in Maricopa, AZ (county), but the under-$500k tier is +0.0% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 55.5% to 53.5% (-1.9pp) and the $1M+ share from 9.6% to 10.6% (+1.0pp).

Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier

3 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.

Tier	Median	$/sqft	Sales	Share	Source
Under $250k	$188k	$193	23	4.5%	ZIP
$250k–$500k	$391k	$259	336	65.4%	ZIP
$500k–$750k	$560k	$264	135	26.3%	ZIP
$750k–$1M	$789k	$240	15	2.9%	ZIP
$1M–$1.5M	$1.19M	$397	2,883	—	COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$1.5M–$2M	$1.69M	$500	1,202	—	COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$2M+	$3.10M	$686	1,907	—	COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
All sales (the headline median)	$429k	$259	514	100%	ZIP

ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Maricopa, AZ), by quarter.

Share of sales by tier (quarterly)

If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.

Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+

Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)

The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.

Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)

National context — not local

NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 85209.

United States
West

Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.

Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.

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Maricopa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration

ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.

ZIP 85209→Maricopa County, AZ

12-Month Direction

-7Stable

Confidence

100%

DeterioratingStableImproving

BuildersLens Market Intelligence

Market Score

41· Weak

Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.

Payment Burden45

33.2%

stretched

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Buy vs Rent6

1.915x

rent advantage

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Valuation11

+70.4%

overvalued

Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15