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Mesa 85203 is in Maricopa County, AZ, part of the Phoenix Metro. The typical home value in Mesa 85203 is $443,809 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), up 0.0% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 55 days, and 36% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 2.6 months of supply, sellers hold a slight edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 85203 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Maricopa County's 128 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $447,215, so 85203 sits right at the county middle. Typical rent is $1,291 a month (Zillow Observed Rent Index, September 2026). Lotvox holds county assessor records for 10,341 properties in 85203.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 85203 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 85203 is a seller's market, narrowly. Homes went under contract in a median 55 days with 2.6 months of supply.
What do homes in 85203 sell for?
The typical home value in 85203 is $443,809 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), up 0.0% in a year. County records put the median at about $381 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 85203?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 85203 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 85203 compare to Maricopa County?
85203's typical value of $443,809 compares with a middle value of $447,215 across Maricopa County's 128 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 85203 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Cite as: Lotvox ZIP market record, 85203 Mesa, AZ, data through September 2026, https://lotvox.com/phoenix/zip/85203
Listings Flow Ladder — 85203
Faucet, basin and drain — new listings in, active inventory, closed sales out.as of Sep 30, 2026
the basin is drainingnet -3 listings/mo
Faucet — new listings
28/mo
63% of normal (45) · trickle
Basin — active listings
82
100% of normal (82) · low· baseline thin
Months of supply
2.6 mo
derived — not published at this grain
Drain — closed sales
32/mo
82% of normal (39)
Net — faucet minus drain
-3/mo
draining
Reading
current
as of 2026-09-30
Compare against:2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 · 5 same-month points
How plugged is the drain? Two definitions, both ours, deliberately not reconciled.
21%Absorption vs its own normal— 1 - (closed sales / active listings) / same-month median of that ratio
18%Closed sales vs its own normal— 1 - closed sales per month / same-month median closed sales per month
Closed sales over 24 months — two different numbers, deliberately not merged.
2/mofall in the monthly rate (6%)— peak 34/mo (2026-07-31) to 32/mo now
304transactions that did not happen— summed monthly shortfall vs the same-month normal, over 24 months below it (vs 2015-19 (COVID excluded))
rate_drop_from_peak is a change in the monthly rate; cumulative_shortfall_vs_normal counts transactions not transacted. They are different quantities and are not interchangeable.
2026-09-30
Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox. As of 2026-09-30. Normal = same-month median of monthly rates, minimum 3 same-month points. Source window 3 months (flows shown per month). months_of_supply is not published at this grain (0 non-null rows measured); derived here as active listings / closed sales per month. A fresher supply-only read (26 new, 58 active, 2026-09-01, Realtor.com inventory (county + ZIP), via Lotvox) is available but is NOT used in the net — that source publishes no closed sales, so subtracting across it would mix two vintages.
Should you buy here?
buyer-timing lens
38affordability /100
Buyer leverage is seller slight; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.
Payment burden
40.2%
severe
Days on market
55
daily
Price cuts
35.7%
of active
Valuation
-55.5%
vs assessor
Days on market and price cuts: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Ownership cost: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), 20% down, 30-year loan at the current mortgage rate, plus 1.2% of the price a year.
Rent to price — the investor's question first
28.6×
price to annual rent
Lower is friendlier to a buy-to-let case. This is a ratio of published medians, not a yield on any particular property.
Price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Annual rent: 12 months of Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI).
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 25.4% correction for affordability
DOM: 42d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)75
Valuation Gap (25%)25
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)100
Cancellation Rate (10%)0
Days on Market (5%)40
Balanced market in 85203. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 37.6% of median income. A 7% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 42. Renting is approximately 128% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 27.4).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
STABLESELLER SLIGHT
Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Sellers hold a slight edge.
Turnover Index · Coming soonLotvox Turnover Index needs 30 recorded sales before a grade is published.
Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
-55.5%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$197,400
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+70.4%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Maricopa+70.4%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
estimated monthly P&I at the CURRENT rate (7.32% as of 2026-10-22), held constant — 20% down, 30yr fixed
as of 2026-09-30 · Zillow ZHVI + FRED MORTGAGE30US (fred, as of 2026-10-22) + Census median household income
Real Home Values
$443,809in 2026-09 dollars (nominal $443,809)
real (2026-09 = 100 deflator)nominal
price basis: Zillow ZHVI
as of 2026-09-30 · Zillow ZHVI + CPI (national deflator)
Listings Flow Ladder
New listings
28.333
Active listings
82
Closed sales
31.667
Net flow
-3.333 · draining
months of supply 2.6 (balanced band 4–6)
new listingsclosed sales
as of 2026-09-30 · Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox
Migration vs Inventory
county migration (parent)
-94net migration (2022-2023), losing — households
in 25,749 · out 25,843 · Maricopa County, AZ (parent county of this ZIP)
active inventory
as of 2026-07-01 · IRS SOI county-to-county migration flows 2022-2023 + Redfin inventory history
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Maricopa.
Aggregate median +2.0% YoY in Maricopa, AZ (county), but the under-$500k tier is +0.0% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 55.5% to 53.5% (-1.9pp) and the $1M+ share from 9.6% to 10.6% (+1.0pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
2 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$195k
$222
13
4.5%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$406k
$261
142
48.6%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$580k
$255
91
31.2%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$800k
$284
21
7.2%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.20M
$329
17
5.8%
ZIP
$1.5M–$2M
$1.69M
$500
1,202
—
COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$2M+
$3.10M
$686
1,907
—
COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
All sales (the headline median)
$485k
$264
292
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Maricopa, AZ), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 85203.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 85203→Maricopa County, AZ
12-Month Direction
-7Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
41· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
40.2%
severe
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Price-to-rent
28.6x
favors renting
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation11
+70.4%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
2.6 mo
seller's market
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
32/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.8%
AZ 4.5%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0855d ago
Poverty Rate
11.1%
AZ 12.7%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$85,518
AZ $77,970US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
99.3
AZ 99.3US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$462,851
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
Typical home value: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI); change is the 12-month change.
Owner stock, age of householder
Tenure by age of householder (ACS B25007) is not published below county. Any ZIP figure here is DERIVED from the county's age-specific owner rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure — never read directly.
Derived — this ZIP
9.0% in 2023
of owner-occupied homes have a householder 75 or older
