Mesa 85203

Maricopa County, AZ · 10,341 properties · updated 7/26/2026

Should you buy here?buyer-timing lens

38affordability /100

Buyer leverage is seller slight; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.

Payment burden

38.4%

severe

Days on market

daily

Price cuts

35.7%

of active

Valuation

-56.2%

vs assessor

Look up an address

/100

Weak

stable · seller slight · prices easing year-over-year.

Price trend

Affordability

Valuation

Economic health

Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.

Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens

Balanced Market

Needs 21.9% correction for affordability

DOM: 42d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly

Score Components

Payment Burden (25%)75

Valuation Gap (25%)25

Supply & Demand (20%)20

Buy vs Rent (15%)100

Cancellation Rate (10%)0

Days on Market (5%)40

Balanced market in 85203. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 37.6% of median income. A 7% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 42. Renting is approximately 128% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 27.4).

Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.

STABLESELLER SLIGHT

Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Sellers hold a slight edge.

Turnover Index · Coming soonLotvox Turnover Index needs 30 recorded sales before a grade is published.

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Address lookup$99 report path

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<iframe src="https://lotvox.com/embed/zip/85203" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden;max-width:640px" loading="lazy" title="Mesa 85203 — Lotvox market card"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui;margin:4px 0 0"><a href="https://lotvox.com/phoenix/zip/85203?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=backlink">Mesa 85203 housing market data</a> by <a href="https://lotvox.com/">Lotvox</a></p>

Market snapshoteach number, once

Median price

$450,858

▾ 0.2% YoY

Days on market

daily · zip_data

Median rent

$1,367

ZORI

Investor score

32/100

cash-flow lens

Active listings

90-day

Valuation3 lenses, different anchors

vs assessor

-56.2%

Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.

Avg assessor$197,400

county CAMA · properties_v

vs income

—

Fair-value model not available for this market.

fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage

vs county comps

+70.4%

County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.

Maricopa+70.4%

Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap

Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.

Pricing detail

Price / sqft$381

Price-to-income6.2×

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How 85203 ranks in AZ

percentile vs all Arizona ZIPs · n=398

Market velocity76%

Supply tightness99%

Affordability28%

Investment yield20%

Appreciation52%

Affordability, supply & momentum

70SUPPLY

Tight MarketSupply Tightness

Supply is below normal — sellers are favored but buyers still have options.

Months of Supply2.6 mo

Days on Market48d

Inv vs History+8.8%

Listing Density6.6/1k

Affordability — payment burden

Monthly payment (P&I)$2,330

Payment burden38.4%

Median income · ZIP$72,851

Mortgage rate6.71% · 30yr

Total monthly own$2,781

Monthly rent$1,367

Market dynamics

Price cut %35.7%

Momentumstable

LeverageSELLER SLIGHT

Months of supply2.6

Sales (90d)0

Investment analysis

Median rent$1,367

Price-to-rent27.4

Est. cap rate2.4%

Buy vs rentfavors renting

Livability

Walk score4

Transit score4

Bike score—

Historical trends

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Price bandsmix-shift

Price Bands — the median behind the median

A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Maricopa.

Aggregate median +2.0% YoY in Maricopa, AZ (county), but the under-$500k tier is +0.0% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 55.5% to 53.5% (-1.9pp) and the $1M+ share from 9.6% to 10.6% (+1.0pp).

Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier

2 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.

Tier	Median	$/sqft	Sales	Share	Source
Under $250k	$195k	$222	13	4.5%	ZIP
$250k–$500k	$406k	$261	142	48.6%	ZIP
$500k–$750k	$580k	$255	91	31.2%	ZIP
$750k–$1M	$800k	$284	21	7.2%	ZIP
$1M–$1.5M	$1.20M	$329	17	5.8%	ZIP
$1.5M–$2M	$1.69M	$500	1,202	—	COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$2M+	$3.10M	$686	1,907	—	COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
All sales (the headline median)	$485k	$264	292	100%	ZIP

ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Maricopa, AZ), by quarter.

Share of sales by tier (quarterly)

If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.

Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+

Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)

The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.

Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)

National context — not local

NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 85203.

United States
West

Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.

Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.

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Maricopa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration

ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.

ZIP 85203→Maricopa County, AZ

12-Month Direction

-7Stable

Confidence

100%

DeterioratingStableImproving

BuildersLens Market Intelligence

Market Score

41· Weak

Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.

Payment Burden45

33.2%

stretched

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Buy vs Rent6

1.915x

rent advantage

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Valuation11

+70.4%

overvalued

Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15