North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL · Manatee County, FL · 15,442 properties with county records
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Lakewood Ranch 34202 is in Manatee County, FL, part of the North Port–Sarasota Metro. The typical home value in Lakewood Ranch 34202 is $661,416 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 2.3% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 84 days, and 32% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 4 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 34202 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Manatee County's 19 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $414,556, so 34202 sits 60% above the county middle. Typical rent is $2,329 a month (Zillow Observed Rent Index, September 2026). Lotvox holds county assessor records for 15,442 properties in 34202.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 34202 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 34202 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 84 days with 4 months of supply.
What do homes in 34202 sell for?
The typical home value in 34202 is $661,416 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 2.3% in a year. County records put the median at about $302 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 34202?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 34202 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 34202 compare to Manatee County?
34202's typical value of $661,416 compares with a middle value of $414,556 across Manatee County's 19 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 34202 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 15.3% correction for affordability
DOM: 64d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)100
Buy vs Rent (15%)75
Cancellation Rate (10%)25
Days on Market (5%)75
Balanced market in 34202. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 32.5% of median income. Median days on market: 64. Renting is approximately 97% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 23.6).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
COOLINGBALANCED
Market is cooling with expanding inventory. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers. Prices down 2.3% YoY.
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Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
-29.4%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$466,800
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+56.8%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Manatee+56.8%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Housing pulse — Housing pulse could not be loaded (429).
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Manatee.
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$220k
$200
20
2.8%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$418k
$241
124
17.6%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$625k
$288
164
23.3%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$860k
$340
122
17.3%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.23M
$389
124
17.6%
ZIP
$1.5M–$2M
$1.74M
$510
50
7.1%
ZIP
$2M+
$2.72M
$729
100
14.2%
ZIP
All sales (the headline median)
$815k
$333
704
100%
ZIP
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 34202.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 34202→Manatee County, FL
12-Month Direction
-22Moderate Deterioration
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
38· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
35.4%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Price-to-rent
23.7x
favors renting
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation13
+56.8%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
4 mo
balanced
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
49/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.9%
FL 4.5%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0857d ago
Poverty Rate
10.4%
FL 12.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$75,792
FL $72,373US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
101.2
FL 101.2US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$409,046
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
