Carefree 85377

Maricopa County, AZ · 2,728 properties · updated 7/5/2026

Should you buy here?buyer-timing lens

14affordability /100

Buyer leverage is buyer advantage; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.

Payment burden
52.1%
severe
Days on market
139
daily
Price cuts
30.7%
of active
Valuation
-76%
vs assessor
Look up an address
34
/100
Weak
warming · buyer advantage · prices rising year-over-year.
Price trend
75
Affordability
10
Valuation
20
Economic health
14

Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.

Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens

74/ 100SellerBalancedBuyer
Negotiate Hard
Needs 42.4% correction for affordability
DOM: 54d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)100
Valuation Gap (25%)80
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)100
Cancellation Rate (10%)75
Days on Market (5%)60

Moderate buyer leverage in 85377. Room to negotiate 5-10% below list. Payment burden: 52.2% of median income. A 33% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 54. Renting is approximately 483% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 70.0). Market appears 21% overpriced vs. assessed values.

What to Offer

Offer 5-10% below list. You have room to negotiate.

Conditions resemble 2019 pre-pandemic levels — moderate overvaluation with slowing demand. Negotiation room exists.
WARMINGBUYER ADVANTAGE

Market is warming with rising prices. Buyers have strong negotiating leverage.

Address lookup$99 report path

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Market snapshoteach number, once

Median price
$1,232,056
▴ 2.2% YoY
Days on market
139
daily · zip_data
Median rent
$1,467
ZORI
Investor score
26/100
cash-flow lens
Active listings
24
90-day

Valuation3 lenses, different anchors

vs assessor
-76.0%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$295,834
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+71.3%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Maricopa+71.3%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap

Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Pricing detail
Price / sqft$421
Price-to-income8.6×

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How 85377 ranks in AZ
percentile vs all Arizona ZIPs · n=398
Market velocity12%
Supply tightness92%
Affordability8%
Investment yield1%
Appreciation84%

Affordability, supply & momentum

61SUPPLY
Tight MarketSupply Tightness

Supply is below normal — sellers are favored but buyers still have options.

Months of Supply2.6 mo
Days on Market139d
Inv vs History-22.8%
Listing Density12.9/1k
Affordability — payment burden
Monthly payment (P&I)$6,223
Payment burden52.1%
Median income · ZIP$143,315
Mortgage rate6.49% · 30yr
Total monthly own$7,456
Monthly rent$1,467
Market dynamics
Price cut %30.7%
Momentumwarming
LeverageBUYER ADVANTAGE
Months of supply2.6
Sales (90d)0
Investment analysis
Median rent$1,467
Price-to-rent70.0
Est. cap rate0.9%
Buy vs rentfavors renting

Livability

Walk score2
Transit score
Bike score
Places & amenities in ZIP 85377 · 35 mapped
Leaflet © OpenStreetMap contributors © CARTO
Parks & open space4
Black Mountain Summit ParkBlack Mountain Summit PreserveCarefree Galloway Wash PreserveCarefree Desert Gardens
Trails1
Desert Gardens Trail
Recreation & aquatics1
Desert Forest Golf Club
Venues & culture11
Gallery Big Red RobotM&E Stoyanov Fine Art GalleryAmano Folk ArtWild Holly GalleryAdelanteGrace Renee Gallery+5 more
Dining & cafés14
StarbucksCarefree Coffee RoasteryBlack Mountain Coffee Shop & CafeCorrado's Cucina ItalianaGiordano Trattoria RomanaPizzafarro's+8 more
Land & water2
Galloway WashBlack Mountain
Getting around1
Sky Ranch at Carefree
Weekend range12
Mazatzal Wilderness · wilderness area23 mi
Usdi Bureau Of Reclamation, Central Arizona Project, Orme Dam Water Reserve Withdrawal · national conservation area23 mi
Hells Canyon Wilderness Area · wilderness area28 mi
Pine Mountain Wilderness · wilderness area32 mi
Castle Creek Wilderness · wilderness area32 mi
Four Peaks Wilderness · wilderness area35 mi
Three-Bar Watersheds Research Area, Plo 3263 Watershed Withdrawal · national conservation area36 mi
Superstition Wilderness Water Sources, Plo 5368 Watershed Withdrawal · national conservation area40 mi
Cedar Bench Wilderness · wilderness area40 mi
Sierra Estrella Wilderness Area · wilderness area46 mi

Straight-line distance from the ZIP centroid (USGS PAD-US).

2,410 ft above sea level elevation · USGS 3DEPCarefree: incorporated/founded 1958 · Wikidata

Place data: USGS 3D Elevation Program · USGS Protected Areas Database (PAD-US) · Wikidata · © OpenStreetMap contributors — licensed ODbL (OpenStreetMap), CC0 (Wikidata) and US public domain (USGS, NPS, Census). Every place shown comes from the named sources; nothing is editorialized.

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Maricopa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration

ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.

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