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Carefree 85377 is in Maricopa County, AZ, part of the Phoenix Metro. The typical home value in Carefree 85377 is $1,208,294 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), up 2.4% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 113 days, and 21% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 5.5 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 85377 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Maricopa County's 128 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $447,215, so 85377 sits 170% above the county middle. Lotvox holds county assessor records for 2,728 properties in 85377.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 85377 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 85377 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 113 days with 5.5 months of supply.
What do homes in 85377 sell for?
The typical home value in 85377 is $1,208,294 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), up 2.4% in a year. County records put the median at about $421 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 85377?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 85377 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 85377 compare to Maricopa County?
85377's typical value of $1,208,294 compares with a middle value of $447,215 across Maricopa County's 128 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 85377 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Cite as: Lotvox ZIP market record, 85377 Carefree, AZ, data through September 2026, https://lotvox.com/phoenix/zip/85377
Listings Flow Ladder — 85377
Faucet, basin and drain — new listings in, active inventory, closed sales out.as of Sep 30, 2026
Thin market — under 25 active listings; ratios withheld
the basin is fillingnet 1 listings/mo
Faucet — new listings
5/mo
127% of normal (4) · gushing· baseline thin
Basin — active listings
22
92% of normal (24) · balanced· baseline thin
Months of supply
5.5 mo
derived — not published at this grain
Drain — closed sales
4/mo
120% of normal (3)· baseline thin
Net — faucet minus drain
+1/mo
filling
Reading
current
as of 2026-09-30
Compare against:2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 · 5 same-month points
How plugged is the drain? Two definitions, both ours, deliberately not reconciled.
—Absorption vs its own normal— 1 - (closed sales / active listings) / same-month median of that ratio
—Closed sales vs its own normal— 1 - closed sales per month / same-month median closed sales per month
Closed sales over 24 months — two different numbers, deliberately not merged.
2/mofall in the monthly rate (29%)— peak 6/mo (2026-06-30) to 4/mo now
9transactions that did not happen— summed monthly shortfall vs the same-month normal, over 10 months below it (vs 2015-19 (COVID excluded))
rate_drop_from_peak is a change in the monthly rate; cumulative_shortfall_vs_normal counts transactions not transacted. They are different quantities and are not interchangeable.
2026-09-30
Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox. As of 2026-09-30. Normal = same-month median of monthly rates, minimum 3 same-month points. Source window 3 months (flows shown per month). months_of_supply is not published at this grain (0 non-null rows measured); derived here as active listings / closed sales per month. A fresher supply-only read (22 new, 50 active, 2026-09-01, Realtor.com inventory (county + ZIP), via Lotvox) is available but is NOT used in the net — that source publishes no closed sales, so subtracting across it would mix two vintages.
Should you buy here?
buyer-timing lens
14affordability /100
Buyer leverage is balanced; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.
Payment burden
55.6%
severe
Days on market
113
daily
Price cuts
21.0%
of active
Valuation
-75.5%
vs assessor
Days on market and price cuts: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Ownership cost: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), 20% down, 30-year loan at the current mortgage rate, plus 1.2% of the price a year.
Rent to price
Not available for this ZIP — no price-to-rent ratio published here.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Negotiate Hard
Needs 46% correction for affordability
DOM: 54d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)100
Valuation Gap (25%)80
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Cancellation Rate (10%)75
Days on Market (5%)60
Moderate buyer leverage in 85377. Room to negotiate 5-10% below list. Payment burden: 52.1% of median income. A 33% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 54. Renting is approximately 483% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 70.0). Market appears 21% overpriced vs. assessed values.
What to Offer
Offer 5-10% below list. You have room to negotiate.
Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
-75.5%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$295,834
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+70.4%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Maricopa+70.4%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
estimated monthly P&I at the CURRENT rate (7.32% as of 2026-10-22), held constant — 20% down, 30yr fixed
as of 2026-09-30 · Zillow ZHVI + FRED MORTGAGE30US (fred, as of 2026-10-22) + Census median household income
Real Home Values
$1,208,294in 2026-09 dollars (nominal $1,208,294)
real (2026-09 = 100 deflator)nominal
price basis: Zillow ZHVI
as of 2026-09-30 · Zillow ZHVI + CPI (national deflator)
Listings Flow Ladder
New listings
4.667
Active listings
22
Closed sales
4
Net flow
+0.667 · filling
months of supply 5.5 (balanced band 4–6) · THIN market
new listingsclosed sales
as of 2026-09-30 · Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox
Migration vs Inventory
county migration (parent)
-94net migration (2022-2023), losing — households
in 25,749 · out 25,843 · Maricopa County, AZ (parent county of this ZIP)
active inventory
as of 2026-07-01 · IRS SOI county-to-county migration flows 2022-2023 + Redfin inventory history
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Maricopa.
Aggregate median +2.0% YoY in Maricopa, AZ (county), but the under-$500k tier is +0.0% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 55.5% to 53.5% (-1.9pp) and the $1M+ share from 9.6% to 10.6% (+1.0pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
1 tier had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$200k
$204
2,869
—
COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$250k–$500k
$388k
$338
21
19.8%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$603k
$321
14
13.2%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$875k
$383
18
17.0%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.30M
$462
22
20.8%
ZIP
$1.5M–$2M
$1.70M
$506
17
16.0%
ZIP
$2M+
$2.58M
$619
12
11.3%
ZIP
All sales (the headline median)
$975k
$417
106
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Maricopa, AZ), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 85377.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 85377→Maricopa County, AZ
12-Month Direction
-7Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
41· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
55.6%
severe
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Valuation11
+70.4%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
5.5 mo
balanced
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
32/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.8%
AZ 4.5%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0855d ago
Poverty Rate
11.1%
AZ 12.7%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$85,518
AZ $77,970US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
99.3
AZ 99.3US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$462,851
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
Typical home value: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI); change is the 12-month change.
Owner stock, age of householder
Tenure by age of householder (ACS B25007) is not published below county. Any ZIP figure here is DERIVED from the county's age-specific owner rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure — never read directly.
Derived — this ZIP
32.9% in 2023
of owner-occupied homes have a householder 75 or older
