Rio Verde 85263

Maricopa County, AZ · 3,831 properties · updated 7/26/2026

Should you buy here?buyer-timing lens

39affordability /100

Buyer leverage is balanced; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.

Payment burden

37.5%

severe

Days on market

113

daily

Price cuts

22.9%

of active

Valuation

-14.1%

vs assessor

Look up an address

/100

Mixed

warming · balanced · prices rising year-over-year.

Price trend

Affordability

Valuation

Economic health

Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.

Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens

Negotiate Hard

Needs 20% correction for affordability

DOM: 99d (rising) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly

Score Components

Payment Burden (25%)75

Valuation Gap (25%)80

Supply & Demand (20%)20

Cancellation Rate (10%)75

Days on Market (5%)100

Moderate buyer leverage in 85263. Room to negotiate 5-10% below list. Payment burden: 36.7% of median income. Median days on market: 99. Market appears 17% overpriced vs. assessed values.

What to Offer

Offer 5-10% below list. You have room to negotiate.

Conditions resemble 2019 pre-pandemic levels — moderate overvaluation with slowing demand. Negotiation room exists.

WARMINGBALANCED

Market is warming with rising prices. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers.

Turnover Index · Coming soonLotvox Turnover Index needs 30 recorded sales before a grade is published.

How the score works Accuracy by ZIP Farm territory available · Tier B $199/mo

Address lookup$99 report path

Look Up an Address in 85263

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<iframe src="https://lotvox.com/embed/zip/85263" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden;max-width:640px" loading="lazy" title="Rio Verde 85263 — Lotvox market card"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px system-ui;margin:4px 0 0"><a href="https://lotvox.com/phoenix/zip/85263?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=backlink">Rio Verde 85263 housing market data</a> by <a href="https://lotvox.com/">Lotvox</a></p>

Market snapshoteach number, once

Median price

$830,067

▴ 1.5% YoY

Days on market

113

daily · zip_data

Median rent

$1,708

county avg

Investor score

34/100

cash-flow lens

Active listings

109

90-day

Valuation3 lenses, different anchors

vs assessor

-14.1%

Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.

Avg assessor$712,900

county CAMA · properties_v

vs income

—

Fair-value model not available for this market.

fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage

vs county comps

+70.4%

County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.

Maricopa+70.4%

Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap

Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.

Pricing detail

Price / sqft$397

Price-to-income6.1×

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How 85263 ranks in AZ

percentile vs all Arizona ZIPs · n=398

Market velocity17%

Supply tightness64%

Affordability29%

Investment yield—

Appreciation79%

Affordability, supply & momentum

51SUPPLY

Tight MarketSupply Tightness

Supply is below normal — sellers are favored but buyers still have options.

Months of Supply2.6 mo

Days on Market113d

Inv vs History-19.7%

Listing Density63.3/1k

Affordability — payment burden

Monthly payment (P&I)$4,289

Payment burden37.5%

Median income · ZIP$137,200

Mortgage rate6.71% · 30yr

Total monthly own$5,119

Monthly rent$1,708

Market dynamics

Price cut %22.9%

Momentumwarming

LeverageBALANCED

Months of supply2.6

Sales (90d)0

Investment analysis

Median rent$1,708

Price-to-rent40.5

Est. cap rate1.5%

Buy vs rentfavors renting

Livability

Walk score—

Transit score—

Bike score—

Historical trends

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Price bandsmix-shift

Price Bands — the median behind the median

A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Maricopa.

Aggregate median -7.2% YoY in this ZIP, but the under-$500k tier is -5.9% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 7.4% to 12.7% (+5.3pp) and the $1M+ share from 39.7% to 32.7% (-7.0pp).

Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier

2 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.

Tier	Median	$/sqft	Sales	Share	Source
Under $250k	$200k	$204	2,869	—	COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
$250k–$500k	$455k	$269	22	10.0%	ZIP
$500k–$750k	$631k	$342	64	29.1%	ZIP
$750k–$1M	$849k	$403	56	25.5%	ZIP
$1M–$1.5M	$1.19M	$433	49	22.3%	ZIP
$1.5M–$2M	$1.67M	$613	14	6.4%	ZIP
$2M+	$3.10M	$686	1,907	—	COUNTY · Maricopa, AZ
All sales (the headline median)	$812k	$399	220	100%	ZIP

Share of sales by tier (quarterly)

If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.

Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+

Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)

The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.

$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
All sales (headline)

National context — not local

NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 85263.

United States
West

Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.

Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.

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Maricopa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration

ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.

ZIP 85263→Maricopa County, AZ

12-Month Direction

-7Stable

Confidence

100%

DeterioratingStableImproving

BuildersLens Market Intelligence

Market Score

41· Weak

Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.

Payment Burden45

33.2%

stretched

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Buy vs Rent6

1.915x

rent advantage

Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15

Valuation11

+70.4%

overvalued

Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15