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Aurora 80016 is in Arapahoe County, CO, part of the Denver Metro. The typical home value in Aurora 80016 is $730,188 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 0.2% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 56 days, and 38% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 3.6 months of supply, sellers hold a slight edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 80016 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Arapahoe County's 20 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $533,952, so 80016 sits 37% above the county middle. Typical rent is $2,002 a month (Zillow Observed Rent Index, September 2026). Lotvox holds county assessor records for 22,473 properties in 80016.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 80016 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 80016 is a seller's market, narrowly. Homes went under contract in a median 56 days with 3.6 months of supply.
What do homes in 80016 sell for?
The typical home value in 80016 is $730,188 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 0.2% in a year. County records put the median at about $280 per square foot (computed Jul 26, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 80016?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 80016 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 80016 compare to Arapahoe County?
80016's typical value of $730,188 compares with a middle value of $533,952 across Arapahoe County's 20 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 80016 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Ownership cost: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), 20% down, 30-year loan at the current mortgage rate, plus 1.2% of the price a year.
Rent to price — the investor's question first
30.4×
price to annual rent
Lower is friendlier to a buy-to-let case. This is a ratio of published medians, not a yield on any particular property.
Price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Annual rent: 12 months of Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI).
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Seller's Market
Needs 7.4% correction for affordability
DOM: 62d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)100
Cancellation Rate (10%)0
Days on Market (5%)75
Seller-favored market in 80016. Expect to pay at or near list price. Payment burden: 30.5% of median income. Median days on market: 62. Renting is approximately 157% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 30.9).
Buyer Caution
Seller's market. Be prepared to pay near list price.
Competitive market similar to 2021-2022 — limited inventory driving prices above fundamentals.
STABLESELLER SLIGHT
Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Sellers hold a slight edge.
Turnover Index · Coming soonLotvox Turnover Index county records here lack a leakage-free sale history.
Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
+5.2%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$768,243
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+62.4%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Arapahoe+62.4%
Douglas+62.3%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
17 Mile House Farm ParkAnchor Point ParkAppaloosa ParkArapahoe County Fairgrounds and Regional ParkBeacon Point Pocket ParkBear's Lair Neighborhood Activity Center+37 more
Trails40
Aurora Pkwy East TrailAurora Reservoir 5K TrailAurora Reservoir Perimeter TrailAurora Reservoir TrailBeacon Point PathCherry Creek Trail+34 more
Recreation & aquatics36
24 Hour Fitness Super SportActivate AuroraAnytime FitnessArapahoe ParkAurora Family YMCA at WheatlandsClub Pilates+30 more
Housing pulse — Housing pulse could not be loaded (429).
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Arapahoe.
Aggregate median -1.3% YoY in this ZIP, but the under-$500k tier is -7.0% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 11.6% to 12.6% (+1.0pp) and the $1M+ share from 14.2% to 13.9% (-0.3pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
2 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$200k
$165
462
—
COUNTY · Arapahoe, CO
$250k–$500k
$404k
$281
92
12.1%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$633k
—
276
36.2%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$842k
—
285
37.4%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.15M
—
85
11.1%
ZIP
$1.5M–$2M
$1.75M
—
15
2.0%
ZIP
$2M+
$2.64M
$730
31
—
COUNTY · Denver, CO
All sales (the headline median)
$750k
$281
763
100%
ZIP
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 80016.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
This ZIP code crosses county lines. Property data shows Arapahoe (91.4%) and Douglas (8.6%). County metrics below are shown separately for each county.
Arapahoe (91.4%)
Douglas (8.6%)
ZIP 80016→2 counties
12-Month Direction
-8Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
41· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
32.4%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Price-to-rent
30.4x
favors renting
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation20
+62.4%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
3.6 mo
balanced
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
32/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.6%
CO 3.8%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0855d ago
Poverty Rate
10.1%
CO 9.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$97,215
CO $94,510US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
112.5
CO 111.8US 100.3
Higher than many comparable counties
Home Value (ZHVI)$516,589
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA · Coverage derived from property records · Counties with <2% coverage excluded as likely data errors
