Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
DOM: 68d (rising) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)40
Supply & Demand (20%)0
Buy vs Rent (15%)100
Cancellation Rate (10%)0
Days on Market (5%)75
Balanced market in 80138. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 30.9% of median income. Median days on market: 68. Renting is approximately 138% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 28.6).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
COOLINGSELLER SLIGHT
Market is cooling with expanding inventory. Sellers hold a slight edge. Prices down 2.1% YoY.
Turnover Index · Live in this ZIPBacktest: 26.8% of later sellers were already in the top 20% (random = 20%, 257 held-out sales) · 9,384 parcels scored nightly
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Douglas.
Aggregate median +1.8% YoY in Denver, CO (metro), but the under-$500k tier is -0.4% — the rise is mix shift, not appreciation. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 38.9% to 37.2% (-1.7pp) and the $1M+ share from 10.3% to 11.3% (+1.0pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
5 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$114k
$234
97
—
COUNTY · Denver, CO
$250k–$500k
$373k
$603
32
—
COUNTY · Douglas, CO
$500k–$750k
$636k
$393
11
—
COUNTY · Douglas, CO
$750k–$1M
$873k
$484
22
41.5%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.23M
—
12
22.6%
ZIP
$1.5M–$2M
$1.65M
$531
44
—
COUNTY · Denver, CO
$2M+
$2.64M
$730
31
—
COUNTY · Denver, CO
All sales (the headline median)
$911k
$393
53
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at metro level (Denver, CO), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 80138.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
Douglas County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
This ZIP code crosses county lines. Property data shows Douglas (82.6%) and Elbert (17.4%). County metrics below are shown separately for each county.
Douglas (82.6%)
Elbert (17.4%)
ZIP 80138→2 counties
12-Month Direction
-9Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
42· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden50
30.1%
stretched
Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15
Buy vs Rent0
2.216x
rent advantage
Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15
Valuation22
+62.3%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand7
2.9 mo
balanced
Source: Lotvox MLS · Updated 2026-05-15
Insurance Risk
30/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.0%
CO 3.8%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0667d ago
Poverty Rate
3.7%
CO 9.4%US 12.6%
Lower than most U.S. counties
Median Household Income
$145,737
CO $94,510US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
112.5
CO 111.8US 100.3
Higher than many comparable counties
Home Value (ZHVI)$715,704
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA · Coverage derived from property records · Counties with <2% coverage excluded as likely data errors
