Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL · Polk County, FL · 3,122 properties with county records
This page: 2 views, fetched by 3 AI engines, citations not yet checked, 0 address lookups, since 2026-10-01 (server log began then).
Dundee 33838 is in Polk County, FL, part of the Lakeland Metro. The typical home value in Dundee 33838 is $263,897 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 4.1% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 135 days, and 18% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 4.5 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 33838 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Polk County's 35 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $284,623, so 33838 sits 7% below the county middle. Typical rent is $1,964 a month (Zillow Observed Rent Index, June 2026). Lotvox holds county assessor records for 3,122 properties in 33838.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 33838 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 33838 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 135 days with 4.5 months of supply.
What do homes in 33838 sell for?
The typical home value in 33838 is $263,897 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 4.1% in a year. County records put the median at about $144 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 33838?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 33838 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 33838 compare to Polk County?
33838's typical value of $263,897 compares with a middle value of $284,623 across Polk County's 35 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 33838 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Cite as: Lotvox ZIP market record, 33838 Dundee, FL, data through September 2026, https://lotvox.com/lakeland/zip/33838
Listings Flow Ladder — 33838
Faucet, basin and drain — new listings in, active inventory, closed sales out.as of Sep 30, 2026
the basin is fillingnet 5 listings/mo
Faucet — new listings
19/mo
181% of normal (11) · gushing· baseline thin
Basin — active listings
66
189% of normal (35) · balanced· baseline thin
Months of supply
4.5 mo
derived — not published at this grain
Drain — closed sales
15/mo
176% of normal (8)· baseline thin
Net — faucet minus drain
+5/mo
filling
Reading
current
as of 2026-09-30
Compare against:2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 · 5 same-month points
How plugged is the drain? Two definitions, both ours, deliberately not reconciled.
13%Absorption vs its own normal— 1 - (closed sales / active listings) / same-month median of that ratio
0%Closed sales vs its own normal— 1 - closed sales per month / same-month median closed sales per month
Closed sales over 24 months — two different numbers, deliberately not merged.
4/mofall in the monthly rate (23%)— peak 19/mo (2025-12-31) to 15/mo now
27transactions that did not happen— summed monthly shortfall vs the same-month normal, over 9 months below it (vs 2015-19 (COVID excluded))
rate_drop_from_peak is a change in the monthly rate; cumulative_shortfall_vs_normal counts transactions not transacted. They are different quantities and are not interchangeable.
2026-09-30
Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox. As of 2026-09-30. Normal = same-month median of monthly rates, minimum 3 same-month points. Source window 3 months (flows shown per month). months_of_supply is not published at this grain (0 non-null rows measured); derived here as active listings / closed sales per month. A fresher supply-only read (18 new, 49 active, 2026-09-01, Realtor.com inventory (county + ZIP), via Lotvox) is available but is NOT used in the net — that source publishes no closed sales, so subtracting across it would mix two vintages.
Should you buy here?
buyer-timing lens
40affordability /100
Buyer leverage is balanced; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.
Payment burden
39.1%
severe
Days on market
135
daily
Price cuts
17.5%
of active
Days on market and price cuts: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Negotiate Hard
Needs 23.3% correction for affordability
DOM: 53d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)75
Valuation Gap (25%)80
Supply & Demand (20%)100
Buy vs Rent (15%)0
Cancellation Rate (10%)75
Days on Market (5%)60
Moderate buyer leverage in 33838. Room to negotiate 5-10% below list. Payment burden: 36.6% of median income. Median days on market: 53. Market appears 24% overpriced vs. assessed values.
What to Offer
Offer 5-10% below list. You have room to negotiate.
Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
—
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$0
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+73.1%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Polk+73.1%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
in 15,366 · out 9,213 · Polk County, FL (parent county of this ZIP)
active inventory
as of 2026-07-01 · IRS SOI county-to-county migration flows 2022-2023 + Redfin inventory history
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Polk.
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
5 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$75k
$109
37
23.4%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$291k
$134
118
74.7%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$555k
$158
860
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$750k–$1M
$830k
$177
193
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$1M–$1.5M
$1.20M
$210
118
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$1.5M–$2M
$1.65M
$281
69
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$2M+
$3.15M
$307
66
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
All sales (the headline median)
$277k
$128
158
100%
ZIP
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 33838.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 33838→Polk County, FL
12-Month Direction
-8Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
39· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
39.1%
severe
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Price-to-rent
11.2x
favors buying
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation9
+73.1%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
4.5 mo
balanced
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
46/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
5.6%
FL 4.5%US 4.4%
Higher than many comparable counties
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0857d ago
Poverty Rate
13.0%
FL 12.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$63,644
FL $72,373US $82,006
Near national averages
Cost of Living (RPP)
101.2
FL 101.2US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$298,816
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
Typical home value: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI); change is the 12-month change.
Owner stock, age of householder
Tenure by age of householder (ACS B25007) is not published below county. Any ZIP figure here is DERIVED from the county's age-specific owner rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure — never read directly.
Derived — this ZIP
15.1% in 2023
of owner-occupied homes have a householder 75 or older
