Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL · Polk County, FL · 13,099 properties with county records
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Lakeland 33809 is in Polk County, FL, part of the Lakeland Metro. The typical home value in Lakeland 33809 is $310,626 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 0.9% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 67 days, and 29% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 5.5 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 33809 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Polk County's 35 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $284,623, so 33809 sits 9% above the county middle. Typical rent is $1,615 a month (Zillow Observed Rent Index, September 2026). Lotvox holds county assessor records for 13,099 properties in 33809.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 33809 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 33809 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 67 days with 5.5 months of supply.
What do homes in 33809 sell for?
The typical home value in 33809 is $310,626 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 0.9% in a year. County records put the median at about $185 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 33809?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 33809 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 33809 compare to Polk County?
33809's typical value of $310,626 compares with a middle value of $284,623 across Polk County's 35 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 33809 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Cite as: Lotvox ZIP market record, 33809 Lakeland, FL, data through September 2026, https://lotvox.com/lakeland/zip/33809
Listings Flow Ladder — 33809
Faucet, basin and drain — new listings in, active inventory, closed sales out.as of Sep 30, 2026
the basin is fillingnet 14 listings/mo
Faucet — new listings
38/mo
75% of normal (51) · trickle
Basin — active listings
136
123% of normal (111) · balanced· baseline thin
Months of supply
5.5 mo
derived — not published at this grain
Drain — closed sales
25/mo
57% of normal (43)
Net — faucet minus drain
+14/mo
filling
Reading
current
as of 2026-09-30
Compare against:2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 · 5 same-month points
How plugged is the drain? Two definitions, both ours, deliberately not reconciled.
53%Absorption vs its own normal— 1 - (closed sales / active listings) / same-month median of that ratio
43%Closed sales vs its own normal— 1 - closed sales per month / same-month median closed sales per month
Closed sales over 24 months — two different numbers, deliberately not merged.
12/mofall in the monthly rate (33%)— peak 37/mo (2025-07-31) to 25/mo now
408transactions that did not happen— summed monthly shortfall vs the same-month normal, over 24 months below it (vs 2015-19 (COVID excluded))
rate_drop_from_peak is a change in the monthly rate; cumulative_shortfall_vs_normal counts transactions not transacted. They are different quantities and are not interchangeable.
2026-09-30
Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox. As of 2026-09-30. Normal = same-month median of monthly rates, minimum 3 same-month points. Source window 3 months (flows shown per month). months_of_supply is not published at this grain (0 non-null rows measured); derived here as active listings / closed sales per month. A fresher supply-only read (30 new, 122 active, 2026-09-01, Realtor.com inventory (county + ZIP), via Lotvox) is available but is NOT used in the net — that source publishes no closed sales, so subtracting across it would mix two vintages.
Should you buy here?
buyer-timing lens
53affordability /100
Buyer leverage is balanced; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.
Payment burden
30.5%
stretched
Days on market
67
daily
Price cuts
28.7%
of active
Valuation
-14.9%
vs assessor
Days on market and price cuts: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
DOM: 41d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)25
Valuation Gap (25%)40
Supply & Demand (20%)100
Buy vs Rent (15%)50
Cancellation Rate (10%)50
Days on Market (5%)40
Balanced market in 33809. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 28.5% of median income. Median days on market: 41. Renting is approximately 27% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 15.2).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
COOLINGBALANCED
Market is cooling with expanding inventory. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers.
Address lookup
$99 report path
Look Up an Address in 33809
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Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
-14.9%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$264,200
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+73.1%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Polk+73.1%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
in 15,366 · out 9,213 · Polk County, FL (parent county of this ZIP)
active inventory
as of 2026-07-01 · IRS SOI county-to-county migration flows 2022-2023 + Redfin inventory history
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Polk.
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
4 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$170k
$119
193
36.8%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$325k
$146
305
58.2%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$587k
$163
16
3.1%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$830k
$177
193
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$1M–$1.5M
$1.20M
$210
118
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$1.5M–$2M
$1.65M
$281
69
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$2M+
$3.15M
$307
66
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
All sales (the headline median)
$290k
$141
524
100%
ZIP
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 33809.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 33809→Polk County, FL
12-Month Direction
-8Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
39· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
30.5%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Price-to-rent
16x
neutral
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation9
+73.1%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
5.5 mo
balanced
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
46/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
5.6%
FL 4.5%US 4.4%
Higher than many comparable counties
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0857d ago
Poverty Rate
13.0%
FL 12.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$63,644
FL $72,373US $82,006
Near national averages
Cost of Living (RPP)
101.2
FL 101.2US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$298,816
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
Typical home value: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI); change is the 12-month change.
Owner stock, age of householder
Tenure by age of householder (ACS B25007) is not published below county. Any ZIP figure here is DERIVED from the county's age-specific owner rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure — never read directly.
Derived — this ZIP
No ZIP figure — this ZIP spans 2 counties
NOT DERIVED: this ZIP spans more than one county. Tenure by age is not published below county, and no single county rate applies here. Weighting by area would produce a number, not a measurement - area is a poor proxy for where households are. Each county's own figure is shown instead.
