Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL · Polk County, FL · 13,136 properties with county records
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Polk City 33868 is in Polk County, FL, part of the Lakeland Metro. The typical home value in Polk City 33868 is $247,705 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 3.1% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 108 days, and 19% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 7.1 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 33868 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Polk County's 35 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $284,623, so 33868 sits 13% below the county middle. Lotvox holds county assessor records for 13,136 properties in 33868.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 33868 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 33868 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 108 days with 7.1 months of supply.
What do homes in 33868 sell for?
The typical home value in 33868 is $247,705 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 3.1% in a year. County records put the median at about $231 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 33868?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 33868 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 33868 compare to Polk County?
33868's typical value of $247,705 compares with a middle value of $284,623 across Polk County's 35 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 33868 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Negotiate Hard
DOM: 115d (rising) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)0
Valuation Gap (25%)100
Supply & Demand (20%)100
Cancellation Rate (10%)50
Days on Market (5%)100
Moderate buyer leverage in 33868. Room to negotiate 5-10% below list. Payment burden: 21.0% of median income. Median days on market: 115. Renting is approximately 77% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 21.2). Market appears 52% overpriced vs. assessed values.
What to Offer
Offer 5-10% below list. You have room to negotiate.
Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
-38.9%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$151,400
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+73.1%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Polk+73.1%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Housing pulse — Housing pulse could not be loaded (429).
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Polk.
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
4 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$139k
$131
129
54.0%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$320k
$161
91
38.1%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$570k
$183
16
6.7%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$830k
$177
193
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$1M–$1.5M
$1.20M
$210
118
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$1.5M–$2M
$1.65M
$281
69
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
$2M+
$3.15M
$307
66
—
COUNTY · Polk, FL
All sales (the headline median)
$235k
$155
239
100%
ZIP
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 33868.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 33868→Polk County, FL
12-Month Direction
-8Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
39· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
22.1%
affordable
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Valuation9
+73.1%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
7.1 mo
buyer's market
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
46/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
5.6%
FL 4.5%US 4.4%
Higher than many comparable counties
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0857d ago
Poverty Rate
13.0%
FL 12.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$63,644
FL $72,373US $82,006
Near national averages
Cost of Living (RPP)
101.2
FL 101.2US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$298,816
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
