Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX · Caldwell County, TX · 146 properties with county records
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Luling 78661 is in Caldwell County, TX, part of the Austin Metro. The typical home value in Luling 78661 is $205,540 (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026), down 3.5% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 63 days, and 0% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Jul 31, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 78661 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Caldwell County's 8 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $267,692, so 78661 sits 23% below the county middle. Lotvox holds county assessor records for 146 properties in 78661.
Headline value data through August 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 78661 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Jul 31, 2026, 78661 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 63 days.
What do homes in 78661 sell for?
The typical home value in 78661 is $205,540 (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026), down 3.5% in a year. County records put the median at about $221 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 78661?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 78661 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 78661 compare to Caldwell County?
78661's typical value of $205,540 compares with a middle value of $267,692 across Caldwell County's 8 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for August 2026.
Where does this 78661 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Cite as: Lotvox ZIP market record, 78661 Luling, TX, data through August 2026, https://lotvox.com/austin/zip/78661
Listings Flow Ladder — 78661
Faucet, basin and drain — new listings in, active inventory, closed sales out.as of Jul 31, 2026
Thin market — under 25 active listings; ratios withheld
Faucet — new listings
—/mo
— of normal (—) · unknown
Basin — active listings
1
— of normal (—) · unknown
Months of supply
—
derived — not published at this grain
Drain — closed sales
—/mo
— of normal (—)
Net — faucet minus drain
—
—
Reading
current
as of 2026-07-31
Compare against:2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 · 2 same-month points
How plugged is the drain? Two definitions, both ours, deliberately not reconciled.
—Absorption vs its own normal— 1 - (closed sales / active listings) / same-month median of that ratio
—Closed sales vs its own normal— 1 - closed sales per month / same-month median closed sales per month
Closed sales over 24 months — two different numbers, deliberately not merged.
—/mofall in the monthly rate (%)— peak 0/mo (2025-04-30) to —/mo now
0transactions that did not happen— summed monthly shortfall vs the same-month normal, over 0 months below it (vs 2015-19 (COVID excluded))
rate_drop_from_peak is a change in the monthly rate; cumulative_shortfall_vs_normal counts transactions not transacted. They are different quantities and are not interchangeable.
2026-07-31
Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox. As of 2026-07-31. Normal = same-month median of monthly rates, minimum 3 same-month points. Source window 3 months (flows shown per month). months_of_supply is not published at this grain (0 non-null rows measured); derived here as active listings / closed sales per month. A fresher supply-only read (0 new, 3 active, 2026-09-01, Realtor.com inventory (county + ZIP), via Lotvox) is available but is NOT used in the net — that source publishes no closed sales, so subtracting across it would mix two vintages.
Should you buy here?
buyer-timing lens
56affordability /100
Buyer leverage is balanced; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.
Lower is friendlier to a buy-to-let case. This is a ratio of published medians, not a yield on any particular property.
46
/100
Mixed
stable · balanced · prices easing year-over-year.
Price trend
22
Affordability
65
Economic health
56
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)25
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)85
Days on Market (5%)100
Balanced market in 78661. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 26.4% of median income. Median days on market: 238.
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
STABLEBALANCED
Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers. Prices down 3.5% YoY.
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in 1,607 · out 990 · Caldwell County, TX (parent county of this ZIP)
active inventory
as of 2026-05-01 · IRS SOI county-to-county migration flows 2022-2023 + Redfin inventory history
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Caldwell.
Current tiers · 12 months to Invalid Datefloor 10 sales/tier
7 tiers had too few sales at every level and are left blank rather than estimated.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$250k–$500k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$500k–$750k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$750k–$1M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1M–$1.5M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1.5M–$2M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$2M+
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 78661.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 78661→Caldwell County, TX
12-Month Direction
-40Strong Deterioration
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
55· Fair
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
28.5%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.4% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-08
Price-to-rent
14.6x
favors buying
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation17
+40.7%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Insurance Risk
45/100
low_risk
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
TX 4.1%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0845d ago
Poverty Rate
13.7%
TX 13.8%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$68,503
TX $78,036US $82,006
Near national averages
Cost of Living (RPP)
96.5
TX 96.5US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$287,466
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
Tenure by age of householder (ACS B25007) is not published below county. Any ZIP figure here is DERIVED from the county's age-specific owner rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure — never read directly.
Derived — this ZIP
11.3% in 2023
of owner-occupied homes have a householder 75 or older
