Lotvox market story
Johnstown · ZIP 80534
| Homes (parcels) | 7,502 |
|---|---|
| Parks & open space | 11 |
| Schools | 4 |
| Schools — Elementary | 2 |
| Schools — Middle | 1 |
| Schools — High | 2 |
| Anchor | Clearview Park |
| Anchor | Bella Ridge Golf Course |
| Anchor | Glenn A Jones MD Memorial Library |
1 of 9
Welcome
This is Johnstown, zip code 80534. About 7,500 homes, 11 parks, 4 schools, and the Clearview Park.
Nearby, there's Bella Ridge Golf Course, and Glenn A Jones MD Memorial Library.
This is Johnstown, zip code 80534. About 7,500 homes, 11 parks, 4 schools, and the Clearview Park.
Nearby, there's Bella Ridge Golf Course, and Glenn A Jones MD Memorial Library.
This is Johnstown, zip code 80534. About 7,500 homes, 11 parks, 4 schools, and the Clearview Park.
Nearby, there's Bella Ridge Golf Course, and Glenn A Jones MD Memorial Library.
Up next What a home is worth ↓
LATESTSep 2026
- Median recorded sale $527,500County recorder, 561 sales over $50,000 · Oct 13, 2026
- Assessor median $503,969County assessor (actual value) · Oct 25, 2026
- Zillow typical value $504,396Zillow research data · ZIP level · Sep 2026
What is a home here, and what is it worth?
The median home on county records here is a 3-bedroom, 1,779 sq ft home built around 2006; the county values it at about $504,000.
- $503,969County assessor median valueCounty assessor (actual value) · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
- $527,500Median recorded sale, last 12 monthsCounty recorder, 561 sales over $50,000 · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 13, 2026
- 7,502Homes on county recordsCounty assessor parcels (houses, condos, townhomes) · ZIP 80534 · Oct 25, 2026
- 1,779 sq ftMedian sizeCounty assessor (86.2% of homes report size) · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
- 3Median bedroomsCounty assessor (85.8% of homes report bedrooms) · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
- 2006Median year builtCounty assessor · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
- $2,770/moMonthly principal + interest on itLotvox-derived (20% down, 30-yr, today's rate) · ZIP 80534 · Oct 22, 2026
- 7,616Homes the Turnover Index scored (spread by score band below)Lotvox Turnover Index scoring run (a ranking, not a probability) · ZIP 80534 · Oct 25, 2026
| 0–10 | 5,091 |
|---|---|
| 11–20 | 2,380 |
| 21–30 | 144 |
| 31–40 | 1 |
| 41–50 | 0 |
| 51+ | 0 |
Lotvox Turnover Index scoring run, Oct 25, 2026 · ZIP 80534
New sales, homes entering the top Turnover band, and estate and tax records in 80534. No addresses here.
The house is the ZIP's median home on county records: the median of the county assessor's residential parcels in this ZIP (houses, condos, townhomes). Parcels another county's feed mislabelled into this ZIP are left out. The score bands show how the 7,616 homes in the Turnover Index's Oct 25, 2026 scoring run spread across its score (a ranking, not a probability; the run scores every parcel it holds, so its count differs from the house set).
| Typical home value (latest) | $504,396 |
|---|---|
| As of | September 2026 |
| Peak | $557,083 (July 2022) |
| January 2000 | $203,729 |
| 12-month change | -2.7% |
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What a home is worth
As of September 2026, a typical home here is worth about $504,000.
The high was about $557,000, back in July 2022.
So today it's 10% off its 2022 peak, and it's down 3% over the past year.
Back in January 2000, the same home was about $204,000.
So over the long run, it's up, with a dip from the high.
Slide to the year you'd buy, and see how far a home here has moved since.
If you own here: as of September 2026, a typical home is worth about $504,000.
The high was about $557,000, back in July 2022.
That's 10% off its 2022 peak, and it's down 3% over the past year.
Back in January 2000, the same home was about $204,000.
So over the long run, it's up, with a dip from the high.
Slide to the year you bought, and see about how much yours has moved since.
As of September 2026, a typical home here is worth about $504,000.
The high was about $557,000, back in July 2022.
So today it's 10% off its 2022 peak, and it's down 3% over the past year.
Back in January 2000, the same home was about $204,000.
So over the long run, it's up, with a dip from the high.
Slide to the year you'd buy, and see how far a home here has moved since.
Up next Then and now ↓
LATESTweek of Oct 22, 2026
Can a household here afford a home here?
At today's 7.32% rate, the median-income household in 80534 reaches the median home on county records, with about $58,000 to spare.
- $503,969Median home on county records (county assessor value)County assessor, median value of this ZIP's homes · ZIP 80534 · Oct 25, 2026
- $132,320Median household incomeCensus ACS 2023 5-year, B19013 · ZIP 80534 · 2023
- 7.32%30-year fixed rateFreddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US, week of 2026-10-22 · national · Oct 22, 2026
- $562,000What 28% of the median income buys (P&I, 20% down, 30-yr)Lotvox-derived from the three cards above · ZIP 80534 · Oct 22, 2026
- $58,000Room above the median home on county recordsLotvox-derived · ZIP 80534 · Oct 22, 2026
- $2,770/moPrincipal + interest on the median home on county recordsLotvox-derived (20% down, 30-yr) · ZIP 80534 · Oct 22, 2026
- 25.1%P&I as a share of median incomeLotvox-derived · ZIP 80534 · Oct 22, 2026
- $212/moProperty tax estimateCensus ACS 2023 county effective rate 0.50% × the median home on county records · Weld County (county figure) · 2023
- pendingHomeowners insurance estimateNAIC 2023 average HO-3 premium is a state average, not local (ruling B: stays pending) · CO (state average) · pending
- $2,982/moPayment with property taxLotvox-derived (P&I + tax; insurance pending) · ZIP 80534 · Oct 22, 2026
How the ladder works: median household income $132,320 × 28% is the monthly principal + interest budget; with 20% down on a 30-year fixed loan at 7.32% (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US, week of Oct 22, 2026) it buys about $562,000. Property tax is shown beside it from its own source and is not inside the 28% rule; insurance reads “pending” because the only public figure is a state average, not local. The slider starts at today's published rate.
| Payment 2020 | $1,390 at 2.68% |
|---|---|
| Payment September 2026 | $2,605 at 6.71% |
| Home value change | +17% |
| Payment change | +87% |
3 of 9
Then and now
Back in 2020, the monthly payment on a home here was about $1,400.
As of September 2026, it's about $2,600.
The house went up 17%. The payment went up 87%.
The rate went from 2.68% to 6.71%.
Back in 2020, the monthly payment on a home here was about $1,400.
As of September 2026, it's about $2,600.
The house went up 17%. The payment went up 87%.
The rate went from 2.68% to 6.71%.
Back in 2020, the monthly payment on a home here was about $1,400.
As of September 2026, it's about $2,600.
The house went up 17%. The payment went up 87%.
The rate went from 2.68% to 6.71%.
Up next Is it a deal? ↓
| Own (with taxes & insurance) | $3,276 |
|---|---|
| Rent | $1,993 |
| Price-to-rent ratio | 21.1 |
4 of 9
Is it a deal?
Owning the typical home runs about $3,300 a month, taxes and insurance included.
That assumes 20% down at the 7.32% thirty-year rate.
Renting the same home: about $2,000, as of September 2026.
Price-to-rent here is 21.1: that's the price, counted in years of rent.
We read 20 or more as favoring renting.
Your own numbers will move with your down payment and your rate.
For now, renting is cheaper, and that's why fewer homes are changing hands.
Owning the typical home runs about $3,300 a month, taxes and insurance included.
That assumes 20% down at the 7.32% thirty-year rate.
Renting the same home: about $2,000, as of September 2026.
Price-to-rent here is 21.1: that's the price, counted in years of rent.
We read 20 or more as favoring renting.
Your own numbers will move with your down payment and your rate.
For now, renting is cheaper, and that's why fewer homes are changing hands.
Owning the typical home runs about $3,300 a month, taxes and insurance included.
That assumes 20% down at the 7.32% thirty-year rate.
Renting the same home: about $2,000, as of September 2026.
Price-to-rent here is 21.1: that's the price, counted in years of rent.
We read 20 or more as favoring renting.
Your own numbers will move with your down payment and your rate.
For now, renting is cheaper, and that's why fewer homes are changing hands.
Up next What's moving ↓
LATESTSep 2026
Is the market filling up or draining?
80534 holds 4.8 months of homes — inside the 4–6 month balanced band.
- 4.8 monthsMonths of supplyRedfin Data Center (public research dataset), 3-month rolling · ZIP 80534 · Sep 30, 2026
- ≈ 69/moNew listings in, per monthRedfin Data Center (public research dataset) · ZIP 80534 · Sep 30, 2026
- ≈ 52/moHomes sold, per monthRedfin Data Center (public research dataset) · ZIP 80534 · Sep 30, 2026
- 252Homes for saleRedfin Data Center (public research dataset) · ZIP 80534 · Sep 30, 2026
- 5.0% (preliminary)Unemployment rateBLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics · Weld County (county figure) · Aug 2026
- 2,993New homes permittedCensus Building Permits Survey · Weld County (county figure) · 2025
- 8,838Households moving in (top 10 origin counties)IRS SOI county-to-county migration · Weld County (county figure) · 2022–2023
- 5,777Households moving out (top 10 destination counties)IRS SOI county-to-county migration · Weld County (county figure) · 2022–2023
- 19,696PopulationCensus ACS 2023 5-year, B01001 · ZIP 80534 · 2023
- 92.9%Mortgage approval rate, home purchase (approximate)CFPB/FFIEC HMDA 2024 public data, tracts overlapping 80534 · tracts overlapping 80534 (approximate) · 2024
As you scroll, the reservoir plays 24 months of Redfin rows, Oct 2024 to Sep 2026: months of supply ran from 3.4 to 4.8 (homes for sale ÷ homes sold each month). How the reservoir works: new listings pour in from the faucet, homes sold leave through the drain, and the water level is months of supply (Redfin Data Center, ZIP). Gold rings mark the 4–6 month balanced band (Lotvox benchmark). The drain's width is buyer power: today's rate and the approximate HMDA approval rate. One toy house in the stream is about 10 homes a month.
| New listings a month | 69 |
|---|---|
| Sales a month | 52 |
| Homes for sale | 252 |
| Months of supply | 4.8 |
| Balanced band | 4–6 months |
5 of 9
What's moving
As of September 2026, about 69 homes list here each month, and about 52 sell.
That's 4.8 months of supply, balanced.
Right now, 252 are for sale.
As of September 2026, about 69 homes list here each month, and about 52 sell.
That's 4.8 months of supply, balanced.
Right now, 252 are for sale.
As of September 2026, about 69 homes list here each month, about 52 sell, and 252 are for sale.
That's 4.8 months of supply, balanced.
Up next Who stays ↓
LATESTOct 13, 2026
Who is staying, and who is likely to go?
About 226 of 80534's 7,502 homes are likely to sell in the next 12 months; the typical owner bought 9.9 years ago.
- 1,690Homes held 20 years or moreCounty assessor and recorder public records (the ZIP story's tenure mix) · ZIP 80534 · Oct 25, 2026
- pendingEquity bands (how much of their home owners own)County recorder mortgage records are not loaded yet · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · pending
- 78.4%Homes lived in by their ownerCensus ACS 2023 5-year, B25003 · ZIP 80534 (all occupied homes) · 2023
- 23.6%Owner's mailing address is elsewhereCounty assessor owner mailing vs. home address (98.3% known) · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
- 5.9%Owner's mailing address is out of stateCounty assessor owner mailing state (98.9% known) · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
- 1,471Held by companies, trusts and estates (never drawn one by one)County assessor owner of record · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
- about 226Homes likely to sell in the next 12 monthsLotvox Turnover Index: houses × the sale rate in its held-out backtest · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
- 20.7%Turnover Index held-out test: share of sales it had in its top fifth (random is 20%)Lotvox Turnover Index backtest on 92 recorded sales · ZIP 80534 · Aug 30, 2026
- 9.9 yearsMedian years since the last recorded saleCounty recorder deeds (92.2% of homes dated) · ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records · Oct 25, 2026
| 0–5 years | 2,172 |
|---|---|
| 5–10 years | 1,365 |
| 10–20 years | 1,783 |
| 20+ years | 1,690 |
County assessor and recorder public records · ZIP 80534 · Oct 25, 2026
The street is drawn in this ZIP's proportions, not from real addresses. Homes held by companies, trusts and estates are counted, never drawn one by one. “Likely to sell” comes from the Lotvox Turnover Index, published only where its held-out backtest beat random. The tenure bands are the ZIP story's own tenure mix (county records). Equity bands read “pending” until county mortgage records are loaded.
| Owners holding 0–5 years | 2,172 (31%) |
|---|---|
| Owners holding 5–10 years | 1,365 (19%) |
| Owners holding 10–20 years | 1,783 (25%) |
| Owners holding 20+ years | 1,690 (24%) |
| Owned from elsewhere | 23.6% |
| Out of state | 5.9% |
6 of 9
Who stays
As of October 2026, 24% of owners have been here twenty years or more.
That's about 1,700 households who have held on.
31% bought in the last five years.
Only 24% of homes are owned from somewhere else, and 6% from out of state.
This is a neighborhood people keep.
Those figures come from county records.
You're in good company: as of October 2026, 24% of owners here have stayed twenty years or more.
That's about 1,700 households who have held on.
31% bought in the last five years.
Only 24% of homes are owned from somewhere else, and 6% from out of state.
This is a neighborhood people keep.
Those figures come from county records.
As of October 2026, 24% of owners have been here twenty years or more.
That's about 1,700 households who have held on.
31% bought in the last five years.
Only 24% of homes are owned from somewhere else, and 6% from out of state.
This is a neighborhood people keep.
Those figures come from county records.
Up next Who's going to sell ↓
How we know: accuracy by ZIP · methodology
| Parcels ranked | 7,616 |
|---|---|
| Held-out sales | 92 |
| Top-fifth capture | 20.7% |
| Blocks shaded | 191 |
| Blocks to watch | 19 |
| Block to watch near | Tangerine Street |
| Block to watch near | Exposition Drive |
| Block to watch near | Exposition Drive |
7 of 9
Who's going to sell
Our index ranks every parcel here, about 7,600 of them, by how likely it is to sell.
Tested on 92 recorded sales, it is still proving itself here.
Here are the 19 blocks to watch, brightest first.
The brightest are along Tangerine Street and Exposition Drive.
Each square is about a city block, and only blocks with at least 10 homes are shaded.
How we know is on our accuracy page.
Our index ranks every parcel here, about 7,600 of them, by how likely it is to sell.
Tested on 92 recorded sales, it is still proving itself here.
Here are the 19 blocks to watch, brightest first.
The brightest are along Tangerine Street and Exposition Drive.
Each square is about a city block, and only blocks with at least 10 homes are shaded.
How we know is on our accuracy page.
Our index ranks every parcel in 80534, about 7,600 of them, by how likely it is to sell, scored October 2026.
Tested on 92 recorded sales, it is still proving itself here.
Here are the 19 blocks to watch, brightest first.
The brightest are along Tangerine Street and Exposition Drive.
Each square is about a city block, and only blocks with at least 10 homes are shaded.
How we know is on our accuracy page.
Up next The long view ↓
| 80534 since 2000 | +148% |
|---|---|
| Weld County | +178% |
| Colorado | +199% |
8 of 9
The long view
Since 2000, 80534 is up 148%, as of September 2026.
Weld County is up 178%, and Colorado 199%.
Behind the county and the state; this is the catch-up case.
The other two lines are the county and the state as a whole, not this zip.
All three start at the same point in 2000, so you can see which one climbed faster.
All three lines are the same measure, Zillow's typical home value.
Since 2000, 80534 is up 148%, as of September 2026.
Weld County is up 178%, and Colorado 199%.
Behind the county and the state; this is the catch-up case.
The other two lines are the county and the state as a whole, not this zip.
All three start at the same point in 2000, so you can see which one climbed faster.
All three lines are the same measure, Zillow's typical home value.
Since 2000, 80534 is up 148%, as of September 2026.
Weld County is up 178%, and Colorado 199%.
Behind the county and the state; this is the catch-up case.
The other two lines are the county and the state as a whole, not this zip.
All three start at the same point in 2000, so you can see which one climbed faster.
All three lines are the same measure, Zillow's typical home value.
Up next What to do ↓
What is the weather like for a home here?
In a typical year the sky over 80534 brings 4.2 hail days, 0.7 flood events, 4.6 winter storms, 49 days at 90°F or more (NOAA). One score for all of it is pending until its backtest runs.
- 4.2Hail days a year (1 inch or larger, within 15 miles)NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, hail 1 in or larger within 15 mi · ZIP 80534 · Oct 15, 2026
- 0.9Damaging thunderstorm-wind days a year (50 knots or more, within 15 miles)NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, thunderstorm wind 50 kt or more within 15 mi · ZIP 80534 · Oct 15, 2026
- 0.7Flood events a year (within 15 miles and the forecast zone)NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, flood events within 15 mi plus NWS zone COZ043 · ZIP 80534 · Oct 15, 2026
- 0.0Tropical storm events a year (forecast zone)NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, NWS zone COZ043 · ZIP 80534 · Oct 15, 2026
- 4.6Winter storm events a year (forecast zone)NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, NWS zone COZ043 · ZIP 80534 · Oct 15, 2026
- 49Days at 90°F or hotter in a normal yearNOAA NCEI Climate Normals 1991-2020, median of the 3 nearest stations · ZIP 80534 · Oct 15, 2026
- pendingSky burden score (all hazards ranked against every US ZIP)Pending: needs national hazard ranks and an outcome backtest that has not run (approved rule, Brad 2026-10-15) · ZIP 80534 · pending
The sky shows NOAA's own numbers for the area around this ZIP: Storm Events reports for 2016–2025 within 15 miles and in the National Weather Service forecast zone, and Climate Normals for 1991–2020 from the nearest stations. Reports are counted, not measured, so busy areas report more. One score for all of it reads “pending”: it ranks each hazard against every US ZIP and needs a backtest against later home prices and supply that has not run.
A weekly 80534 digest
What changed this week in value, supply, rates and recorded sales. Preview: the digest is not switched on yet.
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9 of 9
What to do
If you're buying, compare it with 80644, next door.
If you own here, here's what yours is worth.
If you're an agent, this ZIP is open; here's what it's getting.
That's 80534, as of September 2026.
If you own here, here's what yours is worth.
If you're buying, compare it with 80644, next door.
If you're an agent, this ZIP is open; here's what it's getting.
That's 80534, as of September 2026.
If you're an agent, this ZIP is open; here's what it's getting.
If you own here, here's what yours is worth.
If you're buying, compare it with 80644, next door.
That's 80534, as of September 2026.
Explore the data
4 more charts for 80534. They are not part of the narrated story, so they stay folded until you open them.
Show 4 more charts
ZIP level
Lotvox lens
Home value after inflation
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to September 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Reported values rose +148% since January 2000.
General prices (CPI-U) rose +99% over the same span.
Divide one by the other: in September 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $404,688. So the real change is +25%, not +148%.
- Real change since 2000
- +25%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-09
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to September 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
County level
Housing pulse
Migration and inventory
This ZIP sits in Weld County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 8,838 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 5,777 moved out.
Net across those counties: +3,061 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 252 in July 2026.
Most arrivals came from Larimer, CO (2,730 households); most departures went to Larimer, CO (2,021).
- Net households (top-10 flows)
- +3,061
Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-07-01
County level
County records
On the county rolls
County assessor records list 7,043 properties with a market value here. Their average assessed market value is $507,200; the typical home value is $504,396.
The assessor average sits +0.6% from the market figure — an average against a typical value, so treat it as a check, not a verdict.
- Properties on the roll
- 7,043
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
County level
New supply
Homes being permitted
Across Weld County, builders pulled permits for 2,993 new homes in 2025.
Of those, 67% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).
- Units permitted 2025
- 2,993
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025
No addresses. A number without a source, or without a backtest that beat random, reads “pending”. Machine-readable record: /the-lot/data/80534.json · lotvox.com