{"v":2,"zip":"80534","built":"2026-10-25T11:33:09.462Z","spec_build":"20261025T1115-00c6","place":"Johnstown, Weld County, CO","state":"CO","county":{"name":"Weld","st":"co","fips":"08123"},"page":"/greeley/zip/80534","links":{"story":"/story/greeley/zip/80534","page":"/greeley/zip/80534"},"rule":{"pi_share":0.28,"down":0.2,"term_months":360},"rate":{"rate":7.32,"date":"2026-10-22","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US"},"headline":[{"id":"likely","label":"Homes likely to sell in the next 12 months","value":"about 226","raw":226,"as_of":"2026-10-25","source":"Lotvox Turnover Index (held-out backtest) · county records"},{"id":"gap","label":"A median-income household has room to spare","value":"$58,000 to spare","raw":-57854,"as_of":"2026-10-22","source":"County assessor · Census ACS · Freddie Mac PMMS 7.32%"},{"id":"years","label":"Median years since the last sale","value":"9.9 years","raw":9.9,"as_of":"2026-10-25","source":"County recorder deeds"}],"chapters":[{"id":"family","n":1,"title":"The household","short":"Household","q":"Can a household here afford a home here?","built":true},{"id":"house","n":2,"title":"The house","short":"House","q":"What is a home here, and what is it worth?","built":true},{"id":"street","n":3,"title":"The street","short":"Street","q":"Who is staying, and who is likely to go?","built":true},{"id":"town","n":4,"title":"The town","short":"Town","q":"Is the market filling up or draining?","built":true},{"id":"sky","n":5,"title":"The sky","short":"Sky","q":"What is the weather like for a home here?","built":true}],"coverage":{"house_parcels":7502,"clean_parcels":7502,"acs_occupied":7084,"ratio":1.06,"covered":true,"date_cov":92.2,"value_basis":"County assessor"},"ch1":{"value":503969,"income":132320,"rate":7.32,"budget_pi":3087,"reach":561823,"gap":-57854,"reaches":true,"pi":2770,"pi_share_pct":25.1,"tax_mo":212,"ins_mo":null,"piti":null,"piti_share_pct":null,"tax_rate":0.00504,"ins_year":null,"close":"At today's 7.32% rate, the median-income household in 80534 reaches the median home on county records, with about $58,000 to spare.","home_label":"Median home"},"ch2":{"parcels":7502,"sqft":1778.5,"beds":3,"year_built":2006,"value":503969,"sale_median":527500,"ti_bands":{"run_date":"2026-10-25","scored":7616,"bands":[["0–10",5091],["11–20",2380],["21–30",144],["31–40",1],["41–50",0],["51+",0]]},"close":"The median home on county records here is a 3-bedroom, 1,779 sq ft home built around 2006; the county values it at about $504,000."},"ch3":{"owner_pct":78.4,"absentee_pct":23.6,"out_of_state_pct":5.9,"suppressed":1471,"likely":226,"likely_pct":3.0125299920021327,"years":9.9,"ti_live":true,"ti_capture":20.7,"tenure":{"counts":[["0–5 years",2172],["5–10 years",1365],["10–20 years",1783],["20+ years",1690]],"as_of":"2026-10-25"},"equity":null,"close":"About 226 of 80534's 7,502 homes are likely to sell in the next 12 months; the typical owner bought 9.9 years ago."},"ch4":{"mos":4.85,"band":[4,6],"level":0.60625,"band_level":[0.5,0.75],"new_mo":69.3,"sold_mo":52,"drain":0.57,"below_band":false,"above_band":false,"for_sale":252,"history":[{"month":"2024-10","new_mo":51.7,"sold_mo":46,"for_sale":191,"mos":4.15},{"month":"2024-11","new_mo":48.7,"sold_mo":43.7,"for_sale":177,"mos":4.05},{"month":"2024-12","new_mo":57,"sold_mo":49.7,"for_sale":175,"mos":3.52},{"month":"2025-01","new_mo":61.7,"sold_mo":49.3,"for_sale":199,"mos":4.04},{"month":"2025-02","new_mo":69,"sold_mo":48.3,"for_sale":206,"mos":4.27},{"month":"2025-03","new_mo":76.7,"sold_mo":51,"for_sale":198,"mos":3.88},{"month":"2025-04","new_mo":84,"sold_mo":60,"for_sale":220,"mos":3.67},{"month":"2025-05","new_mo":95.7,"sold_mo":67,"for_sale":253,"mos":3.78},{"month":"2025-06","new_mo":93.7,"sold_mo":71.7,"for_sale":253,"mos":3.53},{"month":"2025-07","new_mo":86.7,"sold_mo":64.7,"for_sale":284,"mos":4.39},{"month":"2025-08","new_mo":73.7,"sold_mo":65.3,"for_sale":269,"mos":4.12},{"month":"2025-09","new_mo":72.7,"sold_mo":60.3,"for_sale":273,"mos":4.53},{"month":"2025-10","new_mo":66,"sold_mo":62.7,"for_sale":256,"mos":4.08},{"month":"2025-11","new_mo":58.3,"sold_mo":55.3,"for_sale":246,"mos":4.45},{"month":"2025-12","new_mo":50,"sold_mo":58.3,"for_sale":207,"mos":3.55},{"month":"2026-01","new_mo":54.3,"sold_mo":54.3,"for_sale":228,"mos":4.2},{"month":"2026-02","new_mo":65,"sold_mo":54.7,"for_sale":240,"mos":4.39},{"month":"2026-03","new_mo":78.3,"sold_mo":53,"for_sale":248,"mos":4.68},{"month":"2026-04","new_mo":78.7,"sold_mo":59.3,"for_sale":249,"mos":4.2},{"month":"2026-05","new_mo":79.7,"sold_mo":64.3,"for_sale":239,"mos":3.72},{"month":"2026-06","new_mo":76,"sold_mo":65.7,"for_sale":222,"mos":3.38},{"month":"2026-07","new_mo":74,"sold_mo":65.3,"for_sale":230,"mos":3.52},{"month":"2026-08","new_mo":74.7,"sold_mo":60,"for_sale":246,"mos":4.1},{"month":"2026-09","new_mo":69.3,"sold_mo":52,"for_sale":252,"mos":4.85}],"overflow":false,"unemp":5,"permits":2993,"mig_in":8838,"mig_out":5777,"population":19696,"approval_pct":92.9,"close":"80534 holds 4.8 months of homes — inside the 4–6 month balanced band."},"ch5":{"status":"facts","hazards":{"hail_days":4.2,"wind_days":0.9,"flood":0.7,"tropical":0,"winter":4.6,"heat_days":48.8},"close":"In a typical year the sky over 80534 brings 4.2 hail days, 0.7 flood events, 4.6 winter storms, 49 days at 90°F or more (NOAA). One score for all of it is pending until its backtest runs."},"cards":[{"id":"value","chapter":"family","label":"Median home on county records (county assessor value)","raw":503969,"value":"$503,969","source":"County assessor, median value of this ZIP's homes","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"income","chapter":"family","label":"Median household income","raw":132320,"value":"$132,320","source":"Census ACS 2023 5-year, B19013","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2023"},{"id":"rate","chapter":"family","label":"30-year fixed rate","raw":7.32,"value":"7.32%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US, week of 2026-10-22","geo":"national","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"reach","chapter":"family","label":"What 28% of the median income buys (P&I, 20% down, 30-yr)","raw":561823,"value":"$562,000","source":"Lotvox-derived from the three cards above","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"gap","chapter":"family","label":"Room above the median home on county records","raw":57854,"value":"$58,000","source":"Lotvox-derived","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"pi","chapter":"family","label":"Principal + interest on the median home on county records","raw":2770,"value":"$2,770/mo","source":"Lotvox-derived (20% down, 30-yr)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"pi_share","chapter":"family","label":"P&I as a share of median income","raw":25.1,"value":"25.1%","source":"Lotvox-derived","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"tax","chapter":"family","label":"Property tax estimate","raw":212,"value":"$212/mo","source":"Census ACS 2023 county effective rate 0.50% × the median home on county records","geo":"Weld County (county figure)","as_of":"2023"},{"id":"ins","chapter":"family","label":"Homeowners insurance estimate","raw":null,"value":"pending","source":"NAIC 2023 average HO-3 premium is a state average, not local (ruling B: stays pending)","geo":"CO (state average)","as_of":"pending"},{"id":"piti","chapter":"family","label":"Payment with property tax","raw":2982,"value":"$2,982/mo","source":"Lotvox-derived (P&I + tax; insurance pending)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"house_value","chapter":"house","label":"County assessor median value","raw":503969,"value":"$503,969","source":"County assessor (actual value)","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"sale_median","chapter":"house","label":"Median recorded sale, last 12 months","raw":527500,"value":"$527,500","source":"County recorder, 561 sales over $50,000","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-13"},{"id":"parcels","chapter":"house","label":"Homes on county records","raw":7502,"value":"7,502","source":"County assessor parcels (houses, condos, townhomes)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"sqft","chapter":"house","label":"Median size","raw":1778.5,"value":"1,779 sq ft","source":"County assessor (86.2% of homes report size)","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"beds","chapter":"house","label":"Median bedrooms","raw":3,"value":"3","source":"County assessor (85.8% of homes report bedrooms)","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"year_built","chapter":"house","label":"Median year built","raw":2006,"value":"2006","source":"County assessor","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"pi_house","chapter":"house","label":"Monthly principal + interest on it","raw":2770,"value":"$2,770/mo","source":"Lotvox-derived (20% down, 30-yr, today's rate)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"ti_scored","chapter":"house","label":"Homes the Turnover Index scored (spread by score band below)","raw":7616,"value":"7,616","source":"Lotvox Turnover Index scoring run (a ranking, not a probability)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"tenure_20","chapter":"street","label":"Homes held 20 years or more","raw":1690,"value":"1,690","source":"County assessor and recorder public records (the ZIP story's tenure mix)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"equity","chapter":"street","label":"Equity bands (how much of their home owners own)","raw":null,"value":"pending","source":"County recorder mortgage records are not loaded yet","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"pending"},{"id":"owner_occ","chapter":"street","label":"Homes lived in by their owner","raw":78.4,"value":"78.4%","source":"Census ACS 2023 5-year, B25003","geo":"ZIP 80534 (all occupied homes)","as_of":"2023"},{"id":"absentee","chapter":"street","label":"Owner's mailing address is elsewhere","raw":23.6,"value":"23.6%","source":"County assessor owner mailing vs. home address (98.3% known)","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"out_of_state","chapter":"street","label":"Owner's mailing address is out of state","raw":5.9,"value":"5.9%","source":"County assessor owner mailing state (98.9% known)","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"suppressed","chapter":"street","label":"Held by companies, trusts and estates (never drawn one by one)","raw":1471,"value":"1,471","source":"County assessor owner of record","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"likely","chapter":"street","label":"Homes likely to sell in the next 12 months","raw":226,"value":"about 226","source":"Lotvox Turnover Index: houses × the sale rate in its held-out backtest","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"ti_capture","chapter":"street","label":"Turnover Index held-out test: share of sales it had in its top fifth (random is 20%)","raw":20.7,"value":"20.7%","source":"Lotvox Turnover Index backtest on 92 recorded sales","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-08-30"},{"id":"years_owned","chapter":"street","label":"Median years since the last recorded sale","raw":9.9,"value":"9.9 years","source":"County recorder deeds (92.2% of homes dated)","geo":"ZIP 80534, 7,502 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"mos","chapter":"town","label":"Months of supply","raw":4.85,"value":"4.8 months","source":"Redfin Data Center (public research dataset), 3-month rolling","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"new_mo","chapter":"town","label":"New listings in, per month","raw":69.3,"value":"≈ 69/mo","source":"Redfin Data Center (public research dataset)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"sold_mo","chapter":"town","label":"Homes sold, per month","raw":52,"value":"≈ 52/mo","source":"Redfin Data Center (public research dataset)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"for_sale","chapter":"town","label":"Homes for sale","raw":252,"value":"252","source":"Redfin Data Center (public research dataset)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"unemp","chapter":"town","label":"Unemployment rate","raw":5,"value":"5.0% (preliminary)","source":"BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics","geo":"Weld County (county figure)","as_of":"2026-08"},{"id":"permits","chapter":"town","label":"New homes permitted","raw":2993,"value":"2,993","source":"Census Building Permits Survey","geo":"Weld County (county figure)","as_of":"2025"},{"id":"mig_in","chapter":"town","label":"Households moving in (top 10 origin counties)","raw":8838,"value":"8,838","source":"IRS SOI county-to-county migration","geo":"Weld County (county figure)","as_of":"2022–2023"},{"id":"mig_out","chapter":"town","label":"Households moving out (top 10 destination counties)","raw":5777,"value":"5,777","source":"IRS SOI county-to-county migration","geo":"Weld County (county figure)","as_of":"2022–2023"},{"id":"pop","chapter":"town","label":"Population","raw":19696,"value":"19,696","source":"Census ACS 2023 5-year, B01001","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2023"},{"id":"credit","chapter":"town","label":"Mortgage approval rate, home purchase (approximate)","raw":92.9,"value":"92.9%","source":"CFPB/FFIEC HMDA 2024 public data, tracts overlapping 80534","geo":"tracts overlapping 80534 (approximate)","as_of":"2024"},{"id":"sky_hail_days","chapter":"sky","label":"Hail days a year (1 inch or larger, within 15 miles)","raw":4.2,"value":"4.2","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, hail 1 in or larger within 15 mi","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_wind_days","chapter":"sky","label":"Damaging thunderstorm-wind days a year (50 knots or more, within 15 miles)","raw":0.9,"value":"0.9","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, thunderstorm wind 50 kt or more within 15 mi","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_flood","chapter":"sky","label":"Flood events a year (within 15 miles and the forecast zone)","raw":0.7,"value":"0.7","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, flood events within 15 mi plus NWS zone COZ043","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_tropical","chapter":"sky","label":"Tropical storm events a year (forecast zone)","raw":0,"value":"0.0","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, NWS zone COZ043","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_winter","chapter":"sky","label":"Winter storm events a year (forecast zone)","raw":4.6,"value":"4.6","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, NWS zone COZ043","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_heat_days","chapter":"sky","label":"Days at 90°F or hotter in a normal year","raw":48.8,"value":"49","source":"NOAA NCEI Climate Normals 1991-2020, median of the 3 nearest stations","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_score","chapter":"sky","label":"Sky burden score (all hazards ranked against every US ZIP)","raw":null,"value":"pending","source":"Pending: needs national hazard ranks and an outcome backtest that has not run (approved rule, Brad 2026-10-15)","geo":"ZIP 80534","as_of":"pending"}]}