Lotvox market story

ZIP 85388

Surprise, Maricopa County, AZ

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$443,759
12-month change
−1.5%
Months of supply
4.7

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 4.7 (was 4.8) · Payment share of income 27.5% (was 27.2%)

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Who's going to sell in 85388 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 85388 by how likely it is to sell

Random pick of 20% of parcels20.0%Lotvox Turnover Index top 20%36.4%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 12,433 parcels in 85388, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.

In a held-out test on 33 arm's-length sales, 36.4% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.

Its top 10% alone held 24.2% of those sales, against 10% by chance.

Where

85388 in Maricopa County, AZ

85388 · $443,75985374 · $382,00285379 · $420,09685355 · $490,45885375 · $375,31885387 · $449,35685309 · no value published85335 · $338,72585378 · $330,54385340 · $515,87285363 · $307,13185373 · $360,23785395 · $542,82485307 · $404,81985351 · $271,34285392 · $407,51985305 · $453,01685382 · $448,11185383 · $633,35485345 · $361,77885381 · $449,07285037 · $350,89985396 · $456,46785323 · $383,99185329 · no value published85303 · $373,23185301 · $309,31385308 · $470,05085338 · $432,16885304 · $399,45685306 · $400,19385033 · $322,90885302 · $375,10085353 · $390,50285310 · $538,29485361 · $510,87385035 · $318,21585083 · $624,22585043 · $365,95285031 · $321,419 85388
$271K$633K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

85388 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 14 of the 38 nearby ZIPs shown.

Value rank among nearby ZIPs
14 of 38

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 85388

12 school locations in 85388: 1 elementary, 4 middle, 7 high.

In alphabetical order: Canyon Ridge School, Cimarron Springs Middle School, Legacy Traditional School - West Surprise, Paradise Honors High School, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
12

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 85388

$0$200K$400K$600K200020052010201520202025Peak July 2022 · $522,751Latest · $443,759
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 85388 was worth $162,835.

Values peaked at $522,751 in July 2022. The latest reading is −15.1% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $443,759, −1.5% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$443,759
12-month change
−1.5%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$443,759
Loan at 20% down
$355,007
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$2,458
Median household income, per month
$8,928
Share of income
27.5%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 10.1% → 27.5%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $443,759. Put 20% down and borrow $355,007 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $2,458 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $107,131 a year, $8,928 a month. So the payment takes 27.5% of income — rated “affordable” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 10.1% in 2000.

Payment share of income
27.5%
Monthly P&I
$2,458

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,1116.67% rate · $2,283
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $975.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,111.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,283 — +106% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +29%.

Payment change since 2020
+106%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +173% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $321,372. So the real change is +38%, not +173%.

Real change since 2000
+38%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

85388 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
85388 (2000 = 100)Maricopa County (2000 = 100)Arizona (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

85388: +173% since January 2000.

Maricopa County: +212% since January 2000.

Arizona: +207% since January 2000 — 85388 ran behind it by 34 points.

Change since 2000
+173%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

85388 among Arizona ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
82nd pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
25th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
81st pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85388 sits at the 82nd percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

25th for appreciation (recent value growth); 81st for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
82nd

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$2,902
principal + interest $2,458 · taxes & insurance est. $444
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$2,203
Price-to-rent ratio
16.8
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $2,902 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,203 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 16.8. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
16.8

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo4.7 mo4.7 months of supplyNet +9 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 59 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 83% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 236.

Going out — closed sales: about 50 a month. That is 69% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 60% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 40% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 4.7 months of supply — inside the 4–6 month balanced range. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 9 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
4.7

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

02040608020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 50 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 62 — so sales ran at 81% of it, and below it in 24 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
81%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

020,00040,00060,000202240,550202338,292202436,380202531,651
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
31,651

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
25,749
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
25,843
Net households
−94
Top origins
Pinal, AZ6,549
Los Angeles, CA3,562
Pima, AZ3,262
Top destinations
Pinal, AZ10,805
Pima, AZ2,720
Yavapai, AZ2,297
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.

Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 236 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−94

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

Who's holding

How long owners in 85388 have held

0–5 years
3,160
5–10 years
2,817
10–20 years
1,613
20+ years
537
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 8,127 homes with a recorded purchase date, 7% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 39% changed hands in the last five.

28% are owned from a different mailing address, 13% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
7%
Owned from elsewhere
28%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 85388 with 85338The same story, side by side. An agent?Claim 85388 as your farm territory$299/mo · the farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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