Lotvox market story
ZIP 85212
Mesa, Maricopa County, AZ
What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.
- Typical home value
- $552,339
- 12-month change
- −1.0%
- Months of supply
- 3.8
This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 29.8% (was 29.4%) · Monthly P&I $3,059 (was $3,023)
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Who's going to sell in 85212 this year?
Lotvox Turnover Index
Ranking every home in 85212 by how likely it is to sell
The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 19,805 parcels in 85212, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.
In a held-out test on 45 arm's-length sales, 22.2% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.
Its top 10% alone held 11.1% of those sales, against 10% by chance.
Where
85212 in Maricopa County, AZ
85212 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ — 92% of its own area is in the county.
Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 10 of the 37 nearby ZIPs shown.
- Value rank among nearby ZIPs
- 10 of 37
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research
Local life
Schools in 85212
19 school locations in 85212: 1 elementary, 11 middle, 7 high.
In alphabetical order: American Leadership Academy Mesa K-6, American Leadership Academy of Applied Technologies, AMERICAN LEADERSHIP ACADEMY VIRTUAL, ASU Preparatory Academy-Polytechnic Elementary, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.
- School locations
- 19
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)
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What it costs
Home values
What homes are worth in 85212
In January 2001 the typical home in 85212 was worth $193,639.
Values peaked at $616,900 in July 2022. The latest reading is −10.5% from that peak.
As of August 2026: $552,339, −1.0% over twelve months.
- Typical home value
- $552,339
- 12-month change
- −1.0%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31
Housing pulse
Monthly cost vs. price
Start with the typical home: $552,339. Put 20% down and borrow $441,871 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.
That is $3,059 a month in principal and interest.
The median household here earns $123,404 a year, $10,284 a month. So the payment takes 29.8% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).
The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 10.4% in 2001.
- Payment share of income
- 29.8%
- Monthly P&I
- $3,059
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31
Lotvox lens
The payment, at each month's rate
Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2001 (7.03%) the payment was $1,034.
In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,349.
By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,842 — +111% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +33%.
- Payment change since 2020
- +111%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Lotvox lens
Home value after inflation
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Reported values rose +185% since January 2001.
General prices (CPI-U) rose +90% over the same span.
Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2001 home was worth $368,456. So the real change is +50%, not +185%.
- Real change since 2001
- +50%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Home values
85212 against its neighbors
85212: +185% since January 2001.
Maricopa County: +195% since January 2001.
Arizona: +191% since January 2001 — 85212 ran behind it by 6 points.
- Change since 2001
- +185%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Lotvox lens
85212 among Arizona ZIPs
Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85212 sits at the 73rd percentile for affordability (price vs local income).
36th for appreciation (recent value growth); 54th for rental yield (rent vs price).
- Affordability percentile
- 73rd
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
Lotvox lens
Rent or own
Owning the typical home costs about $3,612 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,156 a month.
Price divided by a year's rent: 21.3. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.
- Price-to-rent
- 21.3
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
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What's moving
Housing pulse
Listings Flow Ladder
Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 99 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 112% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.
On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 300. That is 167% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.
Going out — closed sales: about 78 a month. That is 84% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 55% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 45% of its 2015–2019 level.
The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.8 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.
The net reading: about 21 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.
- Months of supply
- 3.8
Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31
Housing pulse
Sales pace vs. normal
Homes sold: about 78 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).
The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 77 — so sales ran at 101% of it, and below it in 5 of the last 24 months.
- Sales vs 2015–19 level
- 101%
Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
New supply
Homes being permitted
Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.
Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).
- Units permitted 2025
- 31,651
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025
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Who's holding, who's leaving
Housing pulse
Migration and inventory
This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.
Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 300 in June 2026.
Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).
- Net households (top-10 flows)
- −94
Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01
Who's holding
How long owners in 85212 have held
Of 12,978 homes with a recorded purchase date, 4% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 41% changed hands in the last five.
18% are owned from a different mailing address, 7% from out of state.
- Held 20+ years
- 4%
- Owned from elsewhere
- 18%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11
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