Lotvox market story

ZIP 85212

Mesa, Maricopa County, AZ

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$552,339
12-month change
−1.0%
Months of supply
3.8

This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 29.8% (was 29.4%) · Monthly P&I $3,059 (was $3,023)

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Who's going to sell in 85212 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 85212 by how likely it is to sell

Random pick of 20% of parcels20.0%Lotvox Turnover Index top 20%22.2%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 19,805 parcels in 85212, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.

In a held-out test on 45 arm's-length sales, 22.2% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.

Its top 10% alone held 11.1% of those sales, against 10% by chance.

Where

85212 in Maricopa County, AZ

85212 · $552,33985209 · $439,79685296 · $543,62185236 · no value published85208 · $373,43585207 · $547,74685295 · $538,68985206 · $380,55385297 · $585,34985234 · $551,51585298 · $679,38685205 · $400,74485204 · $388,89785233 · $518,59485213 · $551,61385249 · $671,96685286 · $607,31085203 · $445,94685225 · $440,65785215 · $499,81485210 · $360,90885224 · $450,07085201 · $356,78885202 · $392,24885256 · no value published85248 · $549,65385282 · $460,20585226 · $495,31385281 · $392,79885268 · $665,83185284 · $709,53285283 · $448,61085257 · $546,69585250 · $613,18885251 · $517,33085259 · $1,141,52685258 · $857,73985026 · no value published85044 · $473,65885008 · $373,676 85212
$357K$1.1M typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

85212 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ — 92% of its own area is in the county.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 10 of the 37 nearby ZIPs shown.

Value rank among nearby ZIPs
10 of 37

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 85212

19 school locations in 85212: 1 elementary, 11 middle, 7 high.

In alphabetical order: American Leadership Academy Mesa K-6, American Leadership Academy of Applied Technologies, AMERICAN LEADERSHIP ACADEMY VIRTUAL, ASU Preparatory Academy-Polytechnic Elementary, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
19

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 85212

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200120062011201620212026Peak July 2022 · $616,900Latest · $552,339
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2001 the typical home in 85212 was worth $193,639.

Values peaked at $616,900 in July 2022. The latest reading is −10.5% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $552,339, −1.0% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$552,339
12-month change
−1.0%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$552,339
Loan at 20% down
$441,871
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$3,059
Median household income, per month
$10,284
Share of income
29.8%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2001–2026: 10.4% → 29.8%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $552,339. Put 20% down and borrow $441,871 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $3,059 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $123,404 a year, $10,284 a month. So the payment takes 29.8% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 10.4% in 2001.

Payment share of income
29.8%
Monthly P&I
$3,059

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K$4K2001200620112016202120262.68% rate · $1,3496.67% rate · $2,842
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2001 (7.03%) the payment was $1,034.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,349.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,842 — +111% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +33%.

Payment change since 2020
+111%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200120062011201620212026
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2001Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +185% since January 2001.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +90% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2001 home was worth $368,456. So the real change is +50%, not +185%.

Real change since 2001
+50%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

85212 against its neighbors

0100200300400200120062011201620212026
85212 (2001 = 100)Maricopa County (2001 = 100)Arizona (2001 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

85212: +185% since January 2001.

Maricopa County: +195% since January 2001.

Arizona: +191% since January 2001 — 85212 ran behind it by 6 points.

Change since 2001
+185%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

85212 among Arizona ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
73rd pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
36th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
54th pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85212 sits at the 73rd percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

36th for appreciation (recent value growth); 54th for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
73rd

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$3,612
principal + interest $3,059 · taxes & insurance est. $553
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$2,156
Price-to-rent ratio
21.3
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $3,612 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,156 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 21.3. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
21.3

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo3.8 mo3.8 months of supplyNet +21 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 99 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 112% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 300. That is 167% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 78 a month. That is 84% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 55% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 45% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.8 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 21 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
3.8

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

05010015020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 78 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 77 — so sales ran at 101% of it, and below it in 5 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
101%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

020,00040,00060,000202240,550202338,292202436,380202531,651
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
31,651

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
25,749
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
25,843
Net households
−94
Top origins
Pinal, AZ6,549
Los Angeles, CA3,562
Pima, AZ3,262
Top destinations
Pinal, AZ10,805
Pima, AZ2,720
Yavapai, AZ2,297
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.

Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 300 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−94

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

Who's holding

How long owners in 85212 have held

0–5 years
5,361
5–10 years
5,149
10–20 years
1,891
20+ years
577
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 12,978 homes with a recorded purchase date, 4% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 41% changed hands in the last five.

18% are owned from a different mailing address, 7% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
4%
Owned from elsewhere
18%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 85212 with 85213The same story, side by side. An agent?Claim 85212 as your farm territory$299/mo · the farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/phoenix/zip/85212