Lotvox market story

ZIP 85209

Mesa, Maricopa County, AZ

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$439,796
12-month change
−0.8%
Months of supply
2.5

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 2.5 (was 2.7) · Payment share of income 36.3% (was 35.9%)

1 of 5

Who's going to sell in 85209 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 85209 by how likely it is to sell

Random pick of 20% of parcels20.0%Lotvox Turnover Index top 20%21.9%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 12,017 parcels in 85209, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.

In a held-out test on 32 arm's-length sales, 21.9% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.

Its top 10% alone held 15.6% of those sales, against 10% by chance.

Where

85209 in Maricopa County, AZ

85209 · $439,79685208 · $373,43585207 · $547,74685212 · $552,33985206 · $380,55385205 · $400,74485236 · no value published85296 · $543,62185234 · $551,51585295 · $538,68985213 · $551,61385204 · $388,89785297 · $585,34985215 · $499,81485233 · $518,59485298 · $679,38685203 · $445,94685256 · no value published85210 · $360,90885201 · $356,78885225 · $440,65785286 · $607,31085202 · $392,24885249 · $671,96685224 · $450,07085268 · $665,83185248 · $549,65385259 · $1,141,52685282 · $460,20585281 · $392,79885250 · $613,18885257 · $546,69585251 · $517,33085283 · $448,61085258 · $857,73985284 · $709,53285226 · $495,31385026 · no value published85260 · $715,33085255 · $1,308,003 85209
$357K$1.3M typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

85209 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 29 of the 37 nearby ZIPs shown.

Value rank among nearby ZIPs
29 of 37

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 85209

12 school locations in 85209: 7 middle, 4 high, 1 other.

In alphabetical order: Astravo Online Academy, Astravo Online Academy, Augusta Ranch Elementary, Desert Ridge High, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
12

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 85209

$0$200K$400K$600K200020052010201520202025Peak July 2022 · $486,426Latest · $439,796
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 85209 was worth $155,555.

Values peaked at $486,426 in July 2022. The latest reading is −9.6% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $439,796, −0.8% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$439,796
12-month change
−0.8%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$439,796
Loan at 20% down
$351,837
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$2,436
Median household income, per month
$6,708
Share of income
36.3%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 12.8% → 36.3%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $439,796. Put 20% down and borrow $351,837 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $2,436 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $80,498 a year, $6,708 a month. So the payment takes 36.3% of income — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 12.8% in 2000.

Payment share of income
36.3%
Monthly P&I
$2,436

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,0976.67% rate · $2,263
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $931.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,097.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,263 — +106% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +30%.

Payment change since 2020
+106%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +183% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $307,004. So the real change is +43%, not +183%.

Real change since 2000
+43%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

85209 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
85209 (2000 = 100)Maricopa County (2000 = 100)Arizona (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

85209: +183% since January 2000.

Maricopa County: +212% since January 2000.

Arizona: +207% since January 2000 — 85209 ran behind it by 24 points.

Change since 2000
+183%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

85209 among Arizona ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
43rd pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
44th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
60th pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85209 sits at the 43rd percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

44th for appreciation (recent value growth); 60th for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
43rd

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$2,876
principal + interest $2,436 · taxes & insurance est. $440
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,862
Price-to-rent ratio
19.7
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $2,876 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,862 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 19.7. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
19.7

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo2.5 mo2.5 months of supplyNet +1 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 53 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 66% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 134. That is 86% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 53 a month. That is 67% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 29% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 71% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 2.5 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 1 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
2.5

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

025507510020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 53 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 76 — so sales ran at 70% of it, and below it in 24 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
70%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

020,00040,00060,000202240,550202338,292202436,380202531,651
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
31,651

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

4 of 5

Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
25,749
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
25,843
Net households
−94
Top origins
Pinal, AZ6,549
Los Angeles, CA3,562
Pima, AZ3,262
Top destinations
Pinal, AZ10,805
Pima, AZ2,720
Yavapai, AZ2,297
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.

Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 134 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−94

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

Who's holding

How long owners in 85209 have held

0–5 years
2,117
5–10 years
2,315
10–20 years
1,243
20+ years
831
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 6,506 homes with a recorded purchase date, 13% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 33% changed hands in the last five.

38% are owned from a different mailing address, 16% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
13%
Owned from elsewhere
38%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 85209 with 85205The same story, side by side. An agent?Claim 85209 as your farm territory$299/mo · the farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/phoenix/zip/85209