Lotvox market story

ZIP 85048

Phoenix, Maricopa County, AZ

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$578,277
12-month change
−0.1%
Months of supply
2.6

This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 31.2% (was 30.8%) · Monthly P&I $3,203 (was $3,165)

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Who's going to sell in 85048 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 85048 by how likely it is to sell

Random pick of 20% of parcels20.0%Lotvox Turnover Index top 20%29.0%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 10,741 parcels in 85048, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.

In a held-out test on 31 arm's-length sales, 29.0% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.

Its top 10% alone held 12.9% of those sales, against 10% by chance.

Where

85048 in Maricopa County, AZ

85048 · $578,27785044 · $473,65885042 · $383,80085045 · $662,68785284 · $709,53285226 · $495,31385040 · $319,91785283 · $448,61085041 · $365,92085282 · $460,20585034 · $284,21485007 · $404,43285339 · $437,85385003 · $581,63785004 · $416,17485026 · no value published85281 · $392,79885006 · $406,94585008 · $373,67685224 · $450,07085009 · $276,29285202 · $392,24885225 · $440,65785257 · $546,69585018 · $984,70785016 · $519,91485286 · $607,31085012 · $640,65285210 · $360,90885014 · $442,12885248 · $549,65385251 · $517,33085013 · $482,15685043 · $365,95285017 · $300,18285201 · $356,78885015 · $334,41185249 · $671,96685035 · $318,21585031 · $321,419 85048
$276K$985K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

85048 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 8 of the 39 nearby ZIPs shown.

Value rank among nearby ZIPs
8 of 39

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 85048

13 school locations in 85048: 6 elementary, 3 middle, 4 high.

In alphabetical order: Desert Vista High School, EVIT - Desert Vista High School, Horizon Honors Elementary School, Horizon Honors Secondary School, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
13

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 85048

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200020052010201520202025Peak July 2022 · $620,481Latest · $578,277
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 85048 was worth $197,214.

Values peaked at $620,481 in July 2022. The latest reading is −6.8% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $578,277, −0.1% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$578,277
12-month change
−0.1%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$578,277
Loan at 20% down
$462,622
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$3,203
Median household income, per month
$10,267
Share of income
31.2%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 10.6% → 31.2%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $578,277. Put 20% down and borrow $462,622 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $3,203 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $123,198 a year, $10,267 a month. So the payment takes 31.2% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 10.6% in 2000.

Payment share of income
31.2%
Monthly P&I
$3,203

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K$4K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,3996.67% rate · $2,975
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $1,181.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,399.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,975 — +113% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +34%.

Payment change since 2020
+113%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +193% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $389,222. So the real change is +49%, not +193%.

Real change since 2000
+49%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

85048 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
85048 (2000 = 100)Maricopa County (2000 = 100)Arizona (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

85048: +193% since January 2000.

Maricopa County: +212% since January 2000.

Arizona: +207% since January 2000 — 85048 ran behind it by 14 points.

Change since 2000
+193%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

85048 among Arizona ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
64th pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
55th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
23rd pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85048 sits at the 64th percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

55th for appreciation (recent value growth); 23rd for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
64th

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$3,781
principal + interest $3,203 · taxes & insurance est. $578
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,847
Price-to-rent ratio
26.1
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $3,781 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,847 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 26.1. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
26.1

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo2.6 mo2.6 months of supplyNet −5 / month · inventory shrinking
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 36 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 49% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 107. That is 52% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 41 a month. That is 58% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 2.6 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 5 more homes sold than came on each month, so inventory is shrinking. The basin is draining.

Months of supply
2.6

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

025507510020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 41 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 59 — so sales ran at 69% of it, and below it in 24 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
69%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

020,00040,00060,000202240,550202338,292202436,380202531,651
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
31,651

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
25,749
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
25,843
Net households
−94
Top origins
Pinal, AZ6,549
Los Angeles, CA3,562
Pima, AZ3,262
Top destinations
Pinal, AZ10,805
Pima, AZ2,720
Yavapai, AZ2,297
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.

Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 107 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−94

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

Who's holding

How long owners in 85048 have held

0–5 years
1,461
5–10 years
1,728
10–20 years
1,163
20+ years
755
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 5,107 homes with a recorded purchase date, 15% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 29% changed hands in the last five.

25% are owned from a different mailing address, 6% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
15%
Owned from elsewhere
25%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 85048 with 85248The same story, side by side. An agent?Claim 85048 as your farm territory$299/mo · the farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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