Lotvox market story

ZIP 85045

Phoenix, Maricopa County, AZ

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$662,687
12-month change
−0.2%
Months of supply
3.8

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 3.8 (was 3.9) · Payment share of income 28.5% (was 28.2%)

1 of 5

Who's going to sell in 85045 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 85045 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index is scored here but not published yet: a ZIP goes live only when its held-out capture beats 20% on at least 30 recorded sales.

Where

85045 in Maricopa County, AZ

85045 · $662,68785048 · $578,27785339 · $437,85385042 · $383,80085041 · $365,92085044 · $473,65885040 · $319,91785007 · $404,43285003 · $581,63785004 · $416,17485284 · $709,53285009 · $276,29285034 · $284,21485226 · $495,31385283 · $448,61085006 · $406,94585043 · $365,95285282 · $460,20585026 · no value published85008 · $373,67685035 · $318,21585012 · $640,65285031 · $321,41985281 · $392,79885017 · $300,18285013 · $482,15685014 · $442,12885016 · $519,91485353 · $390,50285019 · $325,66085015 · $334,41185018 · $984,70785033 · $322,90885224 · $450,07085257 · $546,69585202 · $392,24885329 · no value published85251 · $517,33085225 · $440,65785303 · $373,231 85045
$276K$985K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

85045 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 3 of the 38 nearby ZIPs shown.

Value rank among nearby ZIPs
3 of 38

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 85045

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200020052010201520202025Peak July 2022 · $714,691Latest · $662,687
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 85045 was worth $239,662.

Values peaked at $714,691 in July 2022. The latest reading is −7.3% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $662,687, −0.2% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$662,687
12-month change
−0.2%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$662,687
Loan at 20% down
$530,150
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$3,671
Median household income, per month
$12,858
Share of income
28.5%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 10.3% → 28.5%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $662,687. Put 20% down and borrow $530,150 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $3,671 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $154,300 a year, $12,858 a month. So the payment takes 28.5% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 10.3% in 2000.

Payment share of income
28.5%
Monthly P&I
$3,671

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K$4K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,5606.67% rate · $3,409
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $1,435.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,560.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $3,409 — +118% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +38%.

Payment change since 2020
+118%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$250K$500K$750K$1.0M200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +177% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $472,998. So the real change is +40%, not +177%.

Real change since 2000
+40%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

85045 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
85045 (2000 = 100)Maricopa County (2000 = 100)Arizona (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

85045: +177% since January 2000.

Maricopa County: +212% since January 2000.

Arizona: +207% since January 2000 — 85045 ran behind it by 30 points.

Change since 2000
+177%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

85045 among Arizona ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
79th pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
57th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
68th pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85045 sits at the 79th percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

57th for appreciation (recent value growth); 68th for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
79th

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$4,333
principal + interest $3,671 · taxes & insurance est. $662
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$2,800
Price-to-rent ratio
19.7
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $4,333 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,800 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 19.7. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
19.7

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo3.8 mo3.8 months of supplyNet +1 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 14 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026).

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 52.

Going out — closed sales: about 14 a month. The drain is drawn 4% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 96% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.8 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 1 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
3.8

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

010203020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 14 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 18 — so sales ran at 78% of it, and below it in 24 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
78%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

020,00040,00060,000202240,550202338,292202436,380202531,651
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
31,651

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
25,749
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
25,843
Net households
−94
Top origins
Pinal, AZ6,549
Los Angeles, CA3,562
Pima, AZ3,262
Top destinations
Pinal, AZ10,805
Pima, AZ2,720
Yavapai, AZ2,297
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.

Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 52 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−94

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

Who's holding

How long owners in 85045 have held

0–5 years
436
5–10 years
569
10–20 years
285
20+ years
222
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 1,512 homes with a recorded purchase date, 15% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 29% changed hands in the last five.

17% are owned from a different mailing address, 6% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
15%
Owned from elsewhere
17%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 85045 with 85012The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/phoenix/zip/85045