Lotvox market story

ZIP 85018

Phoenix, Maricopa County, AZ

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$984,707
12-month change
+4.8%
Months of supply
5.4

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 5.4 (was 5.5) · Payment share of income 74.7% (was 73.8%)

1 of 5

Who's going to sell in 85018 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 85018 by how likely it is to sell

Random pick of 20% of parcels20.0%Lotvox Turnover Index top 20%22.5%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 9,232 parcels in 85018, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.

In a held-out test on 40 arm's-length sales, 22.5% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.

Its top 10% alone held 15.0% of those sales, against 10% by chance.

Where

85018 in Maricopa County, AZ

85018 · $984,70785008 · $373,67685016 · $519,91485026 · no value published85253 · $3,276,16285251 · $517,33085034 · $284,21485257 · $546,69585006 · $406,94585014 · $442,12885250 · $613,18885028 · $704,36285012 · $640,65285281 · $392,79885013 · $482,15685004 · $416,17485003 · $581,63785020 · $403,27285040 · $319,91785258 · $857,73985282 · $460,20585015 · $334,41185254 · $904,75985007 · $404,43285021 · $433,11585032 · $450,30085283 · $448,61085042 · $383,80085260 · $715,33085017 · $300,18285009 · $276,29285201 · $356,78885029 · $356,33285051 · $343,74285202 · $392,24885019 · $325,66085044 · $473,65885041 · $365,92085284 · $709,53285022 · $462,025 85018
$276K$3.3M typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

85018 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 2 of the 39 nearby ZIPs shown.

Value rank among nearby ZIPs
2 of 39

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 85018

13 school locations in 85018: 3 elementary, 4 middle, 6 high.

In alphabetical order: Arcadia High School, Biltmore Preparatory Academy, Career Success School - Sage Campus, EVIT - Arcadia High School, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
13

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 85018

$0$500K$1.0M$1.5M200020052010201520202025Peak August 2026 · $984,707Latest · $984,707
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 85018 was worth $203,319.

Values peaked at $984,707 in August 2026. The latest reading is the peak.

As of August 2026: $984,707, +4.8% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$984,707
12-month change
+4.8%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$984,707
Loan at 20% down
$787,766
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$5,454
Median household income, per month
$7,303
Share of income
74.7%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 15.4% → 74.7%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $984,707. Put 20% down and borrow $787,766 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $5,454 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $87,637 a year, $7,303 a month. So the payment takes 74.7% of income — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 15.4% in 2000.

Payment share of income
74.7%
Monthly P&I
$5,454

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$2K$4K$6K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $2,1236.67% rate · $5,066
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $1,217.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $2,123.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $5,066 — +139% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +50%.

Payment change since 2020
+139%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$500K$1.0M$1.5M200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +384% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $401,271. So the real change is +145%, not +384%.

Real change since 2000
+145%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

85018 against its neighbors

0200400600200020052010201520202025
85018 (2000 = 100)Maricopa County (2000 = 100)Arizona (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

85018: +384% since January 2000.

Maricopa County: +212% since January 2000.

Arizona: +207% since January 2000 — 85018 ran ahead of it by 178 points.

Change since 2000
+384%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

85018 among Arizona ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
0th pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
94th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
3rd pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85018 sits at the 0th percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

94th for appreciation (recent value growth); 3rd for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
0th

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$6,439
principal + interest $5,454 · taxes & insurance est. $985
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,568
Price-to-rent ratio
52.3
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $6,439 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,568 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 52.3. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
52.3

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo5.4 mo5.4 months of supplyNet +17 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 66 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 75% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 264. That is 92% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 49 a month. That is 60% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 36% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 64% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 5.4 months of supply — inside the 4–6 month balanced range. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 17 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
5.4

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

025507510020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 49 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 80 — so sales ran at 61% of it, and below it in 24 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
61%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

020,00040,00060,000202240,550202338,292202436,380202531,651
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
31,651

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

4 of 5

Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
25,749
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
25,843
Net households
−94
Top origins
Pinal, AZ6,549
Los Angeles, CA3,562
Pima, AZ3,262
Top destinations
Pinal, AZ10,805
Pima, AZ2,720
Yavapai, AZ2,297
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.

Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 264 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−94

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

Who's holding

How long owners in 85018 have held

0–5 years
1,448
5–10 years
1,245
10–20 years
736
20+ years
390
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 3,819 homes with a recorded purchase date, 10% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 38% changed hands in the last five.

25% are owned from a different mailing address, 5% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
10%
Owned from elsewhere
25%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

5 of 5

What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 85018 with 85254The same story, side by side. An agent?Claim 85018 as your farm territory$199/mo · the farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/phoenix/zip/85018