Lotvox market story

ZIP 34202

Manatee County, FL

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$660,569
12-month change
−3.7%
Months of supply
3.4

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 3.4 (was 3.6) · Payment share of income 35.6% (was 35.2%)

1 of 5

Who's going to sell in 34202 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 34202 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 34202 yet.

Where

34202 in Manatee County, FL

34201 · $619,11034202 · $660,56934203 · $370,19834205 · $267,28334207 · $207,13834208 · $321,76834209 · $388,52934210 · $274,78834211 · $546,12034212 · $519,00334215 · $797,03434216 · $1,876,77934217 · $861,71134219 · $413,27734221 · $352,19734222 · $374,34734243 · $395,84934250 · $749,59134251 · $660,347 34202
$207K$1.9M typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

34202 is one of 19 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Manatee County, FL.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 5 of the 19 with a value.

Value rank in county
5 of 19

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 34202

7 school locations in 34202: 4 elementary, 2 middle, 1 high.

In alphabetical order: BRADEN RIVER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, BRADEN RIVER MIDDLE SCHOOL, GILBERT W MCNEAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, PINNACLE ACADEMY INC., and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
7

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

2 of 5

What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 34202

$0$250K$500K$750K$1.0M20022007201220172022Peak August 2022 · $789,192Latest · $660,569
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In April 2001 the typical home in 34202 was worth $258,942.

Values peaked at $789,192 in August 2022. The latest reading is −16.3% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $660,569, −3.7% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$660,569
12-month change
−3.7%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$660,569
Loan at 20% down
$528,455
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$3,659
Median household income, per month
$10,268
Share of income
35.6%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2001–2026: 14.0% → 35.6%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $660,569. Put 20% down and borrow $528,455 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $3,659 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $123,210 a year, $10,268 a month. So the payment takes 35.6% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 14.0% in 2001.

Payment share of income
35.6%
Monthly P&I
$3,659

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$2K$4K$6K200220072012201720222.68% rate · $1,5086.67% rate · $3,398
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in April 2001 (7.08%) the payment was $1,389.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,508.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $3,398 — +125% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +42%.

Payment change since 2020
+125%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$250K$500K$750K$1.0M20022007201220172022
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to April 2001Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +155% since April 2001.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +89% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2001 home was worth $490,479. So the real change is +35%, not +155%.

Real change since 2001
+35%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

34202 against its neighbors

010020030040020022007201220172022
34202 (2001 = 100)Manatee County (2001 = 100)Florida (2001 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

34202: +155% since April 2001.

Manatee County: +188% since April 2001.

Florida: +218% since April 2001 — 34202 ran behind it by 63 points.

Change since 2001
+155%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$4,319
principal + interest $3,659 · taxes & insurance est. $660
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$2,338
Price-to-rent ratio
23.5
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $4,319 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,338 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 23.5. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
23.5

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

3 of 5

What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo3.4 mo3.4 months of supplyNet −3 / month · inventory shrinking
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 66 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 83% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 235. That is 75% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 69 a month. That is 86% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.4 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 3 more homes sold than came on each month, so inventory is shrinking. The basin is draining.

Months of supply
3.4

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

025507510020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 69 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 68 — so sales ran at 101% of it, and below it in 23 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
101%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

05,00010,00015,00020228,45720238,10620247,472202511,015
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Manatee County, builders pulled permits for 11,015 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 64% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
11,015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

4 of 5

Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
6,962
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
5,634
Net households
+1,328
Top origins
Sarasota, FL3,150
Hillsborough, FL1,204
Pinellas, FL1,037
Top destinations
Sarasota, FL2,429
Hillsborough, FL1,308
Pinellas, FL686
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Manatee County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 6,962 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 5,634 moved out.

Net across those counties: +1,328 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 235 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Sarasota, FL (3,150 households); most departures went to Sarasota, FL (2,429).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+1,328

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

County records

On the county rolls

Properties on the assessor roll
62
Average assessor market value
$466,800
Typical home value (ZHVI)
$660,569
Assessor vs market
−29.3%
Source: County records · Zillow (ZHVI) · LotvoxSource: County assessor and recorder public records; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

County assessor records list 62 properties with a market value here. Their average assessed market value is $466,800; the typical home value is $660,569.

The assessor average sits −29.3% from the market figure — an average against a typical value, so treat it as a check, not a verdict.

Properties on the roll
62

Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

5 of 5

What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 34202 with 34251The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

Back to the full ZIP 34202 page

Lotvox V6D HydroClose

Share this story

ZIP 34202 housing market, step by step — share card

Link: https://lotvox.com/story/north-port/zip/34202