Lotvox market story
ZIP 80104
Castle Rock, Douglas County, CO
What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.
- Typical home value
- $604,737
- 12-month change
- −1.0%
- Months of supply
- 3.7
This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 30.6% (was 30.2%) · Monthly P&I $3,350 (was $3,310)
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Who's going to sell in 80104 this year?
Lotvox Turnover Index
Ranking every home in 80104 by how likely it is to sell
The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 14,381 parcels in 80104, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.
In a held-out test on 596 arm's-length sales, 28.9% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.
Its top 10% alone held 18.0% of those sales, against 10% by chance.
Where
80104 in Douglas County, CO
80104 is one of 14 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Douglas County, CO.
Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 13 of the 14 with a value.
- Value rank in county
- 13 of 14
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research
Local life
Around 80104
Mapped in and around 80104: 105 places to go — 34 trails, 33 dining, 21 parks & open space.
- Places mapped
- 105
Source: National Park Service, National Register of Historic Places; USGS 3D Elevation Program; USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US); Wikidata (CC0); © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · data as of 2026-09-21
Local life
Schools in 80104
15 school locations in 80104: 3 elementary, 7 middle, 3 high, 2 other.
In alphabetical order: Academy Charter School, Cantril, Castle Rock Elementary School, Cloverleaf Home Education, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.
- School locations
- 15
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)
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What it costs
Home values
What homes are worth in 80104
In January 2000 the typical home in 80104 was worth $194,257.
Values peaked at $649,779 in June 2022. The latest reading is −6.9% from that peak.
As of August 2026: $604,737, −1.0% over twelve months.
- Typical home value
- $604,737
- 12-month change
- −1.0%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31
Housing pulse
Monthly cost vs. price
Start with the typical home: $604,737. Put 20% down and borrow $483,790 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.
That is $3,350 a month in principal and interest.
The median household here earns $131,359 a year, $10,947 a month. So the payment takes 30.6% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).
The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 9.8% in 2000.
- Payment share of income
- 30.6%
- Monthly P&I
- $3,350
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31
Lotvox lens
The payment, at each month's rate
Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $1,163.
In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,554.
By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $3,111 — +100% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +26%.
- Payment change since 2020
- +100%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Lotvox lens
Home value after inflation
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Reported values rose +211% since January 2000.
General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.
Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $383,386. So the real change is +58%, not +211%.
- Real change since 2000
- +58%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Home values
80104 against its neighbors
80104: +211% since January 2000.
Douglas County: +198% since January 2000.
Colorado: +199% since January 2000 — 80104 ran ahead of it by 13 points.
- Change since 2000
- +211%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Lotvox lens
80104 among Colorado ZIPs
Against 476 Colorado ZIP codes, 80104 sits at the 72nd percentile for affordability (price vs local income).
43rd for appreciation (recent value growth); 68th for rental yield (rent vs price).
- Affordability percentile
- 72nd
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
Lotvox lens
Rent or own
Owning the typical home costs about $3,954 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,427 a month.
Price divided by a year's rent: 20.8. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.
- Price-to-rent
- 20.8
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
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What's moving
Housing pulse
Listings Flow Ladder
Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 89 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 88% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.
On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 275. That is 180% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.
Going out — closed sales: about 75 a month. That is 82% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 56% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 44% of its 2015–2019 level.
The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.7 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.
The net reading: about 14 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.
- Months of supply
- 3.7
Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31
Housing pulse
Sales pace vs. normal
Homes sold: about 75 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).
The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 78 — so sales ran at 96% of it, and below it in 19 of the last 24 months.
- Sales vs 2015–19 level
- 96%
Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
New supply
Homes being permitted
Across Douglas County, builders pulled permits for 2,398 new homes in 2025.
Of those, 61% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).
- Units permitted 2025
- 2,398
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025
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Who's holding, who's leaving
Housing pulse
Migration and inventory
This ZIP sits in Douglas County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 10,326 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 7,977 moved out.
Net across those counties: +2,349 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 275 in June 2026.
Most arrivals came from Arapahoe, CO (4,025 households); most departures went to Arapahoe, CO (2,753).
- Net households (top-10 flows)
- +2,349
Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01
County records
On the county rolls
County assessor records list 14,487 properties with a market value here. Their average assessed market value is $605,146; the typical home value is $604,737.
The assessor average sits +0.1% from the market figure — an average against a typical value, so treat it as a check, not a verdict.
- Properties on the roll
- 14,487
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
Who's holding
How long owners in 80104 have held
Of 14,337 homes with a recorded purchase date, 15% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 37% changed hands in the last five.
12% are owned from a different mailing address, 3% from out of state.
- Held 20+ years
- 15%
- Owned from elsewhere
- 12%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11
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