Lotvox market story

ZIP 80016

Aurora, Arapahoe County, CO

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$734,711
12-month change
−0.6%
Months of supply
3.2

This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 32.9% (was 32.5%) · Monthly P&I $4,070 (was $4,022)

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Who's going to sell in 80016 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 80016 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index is scored here but not published yet: a ZIP goes live only when its held-out capture beats 20% on at least 30 recorded sales.

Where

80016 in Arapahoe County, CO

80010 · $389,09380012 · $386,45680013 · $459,44880014 · $345,79880015 · $540,58280016 · $734,71180017 · $398,80080018 · $532,36680105 · $384,72380110 · $481,50780111 · $888,53880112 · $599,38680113 · $628,76380120 · $597,01980121 · $683,01380122 · $621,46980137 · $526,370 80016
$346K$889K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

80016 is one of 17 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Arapahoe County, CO — 95% of its own area is in the county.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 2 of the 17 with a value.

Value rank in county
2 of 17

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Around 80016

Parks & open space · 47Trails · 40Dining · 39Recreation & fitness · 32Arts & venues · 6Day trips · 8
Source: USGS 3DEP · USGS PAD-US · Wikidata · OpenStreetMap · as of 2026-09-21Source: USGS 3D Elevation Program; USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US); Wikidata (CC0); © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · data as of 2026-09-21

Mapped in and around 80016: 172 places to go — 47 parks & open space, 40 trails, 39 dining.

Places mapped
172

Source: USGS 3D Elevation Program; USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US); Wikidata (CC0); © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · data as of 2026-09-21

Local life

Schools in 80016

13 school locations in 80016: 6 elementary, 5 middle, 2 high.

In alphabetical order: Altitude Elementary School, Black Forest Hills Elementary School, Buffalo Trail Elementary School, Cherokee Trail High School, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
13

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 80016

$0$250K$500K$750K$1.0M200020052010201520202025Peak June 2022 · $786,539Latest · $734,711
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 80016 was worth $295,918.

Values peaked at $786,539 in June 2022. The latest reading is −6.6% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $734,711, −0.6% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$734,711
12-month change
−0.6%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$734,711
Loan at 20% down
$587,769
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$4,070
Median household income, per month
$12,368
Share of income
32.9%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 13.3% → 32.9%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $734,711. Put 20% down and borrow $587,769 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $4,070 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $148,421 a year, $12,368 a month. So the payment takes 32.9% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 13.3% in 2000.

Payment share of income
32.9%
Monthly P&I
$4,070

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$2K$4K$6K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,9066.67% rate · $3,780
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $1,772.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,906.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $3,780 — +98% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +25%.

Payment change since 2020
+98%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$250K$500K$750K$1.0M200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +148% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $584,025. So the real change is +26%, not +148%.

Real change since 2000
+26%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

80016 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
80016 (2000 = 100)Arapahoe County (2000 = 100)Colorado (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

80016: +148% since January 2000.

Arapahoe County: +187% since January 2000.

Colorado: +199% since January 2000 — 80016 ran behind it by 50 points.

Change since 2000
+148%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

80016 among Colorado ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
62nd pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
51st pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
23rd pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 476 Colorado ZIP codes, 80016 sits at the 62nd percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

51st for appreciation (recent value growth); 23rd for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
62nd

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$4,804
principal + interest $4,070 · taxes & insurance est. $734
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$2,030
Price-to-rent ratio
30.2
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $4,804 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,030 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 30.2. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
30.2

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo3.2 mo3.2 months of supplyNet +17 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 103 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 65% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 272. That is 80% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 86 a month. That is 60% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 28% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 72% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.2 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 17 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
3.2

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

05010015020020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 86 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 118 — so sales ran at 73% of it, and below it in 24 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
73%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

02,0004,0006,0008,00020224,32520235,47920243,85620253,599
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Arapahoe County, builders pulled permits for 3,599 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 48% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
3,599

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
18,928
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
20,192
Net households
−1,264
Top origins
Denver, CO8,748
Douglas, CO2,753
Adams, CO2,708
Top destinations
Denver, CO7,829
Douglas, CO4,025
Adams, CO3,155
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Arapahoe County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 18,928 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 20,192 moved out.

Net across those counties: −1,264 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 272 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Denver, CO (8,748 households); most departures went to Denver, CO (7,829).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−1,264

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

County records

On the county rolls

Properties on the assessor roll
2,373
Average assessor market value
$768,243
Typical home value (ZHVI)
$734,711
Assessor vs market
+4.6%
Source: County records · Zillow (ZHVI) · LotvoxSource: County assessor and recorder public records; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

County assessor records list 2,373 properties with a market value here. Their average assessed market value is $768,243; the typical home value is $734,711.

The assessor average sits +4.6% from the market figure — an average against a typical value, so treat it as a check, not a verdict.

Properties on the roll
2,373

Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Who's holding

How long owners in 80016 have held

0–5 years
7,251
5–10 years
6,784
10–20 years
4,645
20+ years
1,921
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 20,601 homes with a recorded purchase date, 9% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 35% changed hands in the last five.

11% are owned from a different mailing address, 3% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
9%
Owned from elsewhere
11%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 80016 with 80121The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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