New Haven County, CT · 4,976 properties with county records
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Beacon Falls 06403 is in New Haven, CT, part of the New Haven Metro. The ZIP-wide typical value in Beacon Falls 06403 is $427,946 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), up 2.0% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 45 days, and 0% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 1.6 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 06403 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across New Haven's 40 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $400,190, so 06403 sits 7% above the county middle. Lotvox holds county assessor records for 4,976 properties in 06403.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 06403 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 06403 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 45 days with 1.6 months of supply.
What do homes in 06403 sell for?
The ZIP-wide typical value in 06403 is $427,946 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), up 2.0% in a year. County records put the median at about $178 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 06403?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 06403 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 06403 compare to New Haven?
06403's ZIP-wide typical value of $427,946 compares with a middle value of $400,190 across New Haven's 40 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 06403 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Cite as: Lotvox ZIP market record, 06403 Beacon Falls, CT, data through September 2026, https://lotvox.com/new-haven/zip/06403
Listings Flow Ladder — 06403
Faucet, basin and drain — new listings in, active inventory, closed sales out.as of Sep 30, 2026
Thin market — under 25 active listings; ratios withheld
the basin is drainingnet -2 listings/mo
Faucet — new listings
7/mo
67% of normal (11) · trickle· baseline thin
Basin — active listings
15
29% of normal (51) · low· baseline thin
Months of supply
1.6 mo
derived — not published at this grain
Drain — closed sales
9/mo
97% of normal (10)· baseline thin
Net — faucet minus drain
-2/mo
draining
Reading
current
as of 2026-09-30
Compare against:2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 · 5 same-month points
How plugged is the drain? Two definitions, both ours, deliberately not reconciled.
—Absorption vs its own normal— 1 - (closed sales / active listings) / same-month median of that ratio
—Closed sales vs its own normal— 1 - closed sales per month / same-month median closed sales per month
Closed sales over 24 months — two different numbers, deliberately not merged.
1/mofall in the monthly rate (7%)— peak 10/mo (2026-08-31) to 9/mo now
56transactions that did not happen— summed monthly shortfall vs the same-month normal, over 21 months below it (vs 2015-19 (COVID excluded))
rate_drop_from_peak is a change in the monthly rate; cumulative_shortfall_vs_normal counts transactions not transacted. They are different quantities and are not interchangeable.
2026-09-30
Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox. As of 2026-09-30. Normal = same-month median of monthly rates, minimum 3 same-month points. Source window 3 months (flows shown per month). months_of_supply is not published at this grain (0 non-null rows measured); derived here as active listings / closed sales per month. A fresher supply-only read (4 new, 9 active, 2026-09-01, Realtor.com inventory (county + ZIP), via Lotvox) is available but is NOT used in the net — that source publishes no closed sales, so subtracting across it would mix two vintages.
Should you buy here?
buyer-timing lens
55affordability /100
Buyer leverage is balanced; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.
Payment burden
29.6%
stretched
Days on market
45
daily
Price cuts
0.0%
of active
Valuation
-33.5%
vs assessor
Days on market and price cuts: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
DOM: 33d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)25
Valuation Gap (25%)80
Supply & Demand (20%)70
Cancellation Rate (10%)0
Days on Market (5%)40
Balanced market in 06403. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 27.5% of median income. Median days on market: 33. Renting is approximately 66% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 19.9). Market appears 21% overpriced vs. assessed values.
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
WARMINGBALANCED
Market is warming with rising prices. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers.
Address lookup
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Look Up an Address in 06403
Just type the street — we'll auto-scope the search to ZIP 06403.
Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
-33.5%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$284,500
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
—
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
New Haven—
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Anchors disagree because they measure different things — read each on its own terms.
estimated monthly P&I at the CURRENT rate (7.32% as of 2026-10-22), held constant — 20% down, 30yr fixed
as of 2026-09-30 · Zillow ZHVI + FRED MORTGAGE30US (fred, as of 2026-10-22) + Census median household income
Real Home Values
$427,946in 2026-09 dollars (nominal $427,946)
real (2026-09 = 100 deflator)nominal
price basis: Zillow ZHVI
as of 2026-09-30 · Zillow ZHVI + CPI (national deflator)
Listings Flow Ladder
New listings
7.333
Active listings
15
Closed sales
9.333
Net flow
-2 · draining
months of supply 1.6 (balanced band 4–6) · THIN market
new listingsclosed sales
as of 2026-09-30 · Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox
Migration vs Inventory
Not enough data for this geography — no IRS migration rows for the parent county.
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in New Haven.
Current tiers · 12 months to Invalid Datefloor 10 sales/tier
7 tiers had too few sales at every level and are left blank rather than estimated.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$250k–$500k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$500k–$750k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$750k–$1M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1M–$1.5M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1.5M–$2M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$2M+
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the Northeast census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 06403.
United States
Northeast
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 06403→New Haven County, CT
12-Month Direction
+36Strong Improvement
Confidence
85%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
45· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
29.6%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Supply/Demand
1.6 mo
seller's market
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
US 3.9%
—
Poverty Rate
US 11.5%
—
Median Household Income
US $74,755
—
Cost of Living (RPP)
107.5
CT 107.5US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$408,094
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
ZIP-wide typical value: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI); change is the 12-month change.
Owner stock, age of householder
Tenure by age of householder (ACS B25007) is not published below county. Any ZIP figure here is DERIVED from the county's age-specific owner rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure — never read directly.
Derived — this ZIP
No ZIP figure — too few owner households to state a share
NOT DERIVED: no county tenure-by-age rates available for this ZIP's county.
