Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 31% correction for affordability
DOM: 90d (rising) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)90
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)40
Buy vs Rent (15%)75
Cancellation Rate (10%)75
Days on Market (5%)75
Balanced market in 80631. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 42.8% of median income. A 18% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 90. Renting is approximately 91% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 22.9).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
STABLESELLER SLIGHT
Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Sellers hold a slight edge. Prices down 1.3% YoY.
Turnover Index · Live in this ZIPBacktest: 20.7% of later sellers were already in the top 20% (random = 20%, 193 held-out sales) · 9,784 parcels scored nightly
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Weld.
Aggregate median +2.0% YoY in Weld, CO (county), but the under-$500k tier is -1.7% — the rise is mix shift, not appreciation. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 13.0% to 17.2% (+4.2pp) and the $1M+ share from 9.9% to 12.0% (+2.1pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
6 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row. 1 tier had too few sales at every level and are left blank rather than estimated.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$228k
$329
10
1.9%
COUNTY · Weld, CO
$250k–$500k
$422k
$336
80
15.3%
COUNTY · Weld, CO
$500k–$750k
$635k
$354
214
40.8%
COUNTY · Weld, CO
$750k–$1M
$850k
$331
157
30.0%
COUNTY · Weld, CO
$1M–$1.5M
$1.14M
$405
43
8.2%
COUNTY · Weld, CO
$1.5M–$2M
$1.68M
$507
14
2.7%
COUNTY · Weld, CO
$2M+
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
All sales (the headline median)
$700k
$351
524
100%
COUNTY · Weld, CO
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Weld, CO), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 80631.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
Weld County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 80631→Weld County, COPop: 369,880
12-Month Direction
-5Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
36· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden45
32.9%
stretched
Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15
Buy vs Rent0
2.034x
rent advantage
Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15
Valuation16
+68.1%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand9
3.3 mo
balanced
Source: Lotvox MLS · Updated 2026-05-15
Insurance Risk
32/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
CO 3.8%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0667d ago
Poverty Rate
9.1%
CO 9.4%US 12.6%
Lower than most U.S. counties
Median Household Income
$93,287
CO $94,510US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
112.5
CO 111.8US 100.3
Higher than many comparable counties
Home Value (ZHVI)$497,294
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
