Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 19.4% correction for affordability
DOM: 48d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)75
Valuation Gap (25%)25
Supply & Demand (20%)0
Buy vs Rent (15%)100
Cancellation Rate (10%)0
Days on Market (5%)60
Balanced market in 80232. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 36.9% of median income. A 5% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 48. Renting is approximately 137% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 28.4).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
COOLINGSELLER SLIGHT
Market is cooling with expanding inventory. Sellers hold a slight edge. Prices down 2.7% YoY.
Turnover Index · Live in this ZIPBacktest: 26.6% of later sellers were already in the top 20% (random = 20%, 128 held-out sales) · 7,697 parcels scored nightly
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Jefferson.
Aggregate median +3.0% YoY in Jefferson, CO (county), but the under-$500k tier is -1.0% — the rise is mix shift, not appreciation. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 29.5% to 26.9% (-2.6pp) and the $1M+ share from 12.8% to 14.6% (+1.8pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
4 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$114k
$234
97
—
COUNTY · Denver, CO
$250k–$500k
$391k
$361
126
37.5%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$579k
$431
176
52.4%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$845k
$439
20
6.0%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.20M
$515
187
—
COUNTY · Denver, CO
$1.5M–$2M
$1.67M
$523
262
—
COUNTY · Jefferson, CO
$2M+
$2.64M
$730
31
—
COUNTY · Denver, CO
All sales (the headline median)
$530k
$388
336
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Jefferson, CO), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 80232.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
Jefferson County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
Jefferson County
County-level context for ZIP 80232
Verified — Jefferson County
Healthy (28)
ZIP 80232→Jefferson County, COPop: 578,437
12-Month Direction
-8Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
Why this score
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
35· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.