Lotvox market story
ZIP 34638
Pasco County, FL
What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.
- Typical home value
- $420,845
- 12-month change
- −3.1%
- Months of supply
- 2.6
This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 2.6 (was 2.8) · Payment share of income 23.7% (was 23.4%)
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Who's going to sell in 34638 this year?
Lotvox Turnover Index
Ranking every home in 34638 by how likely it is to sell
The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 34638 yet.
Where
34638 in Pasco County, FL
34638 is one of 24 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Pasco County, FL.
Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 3 of the 22 with a value.
- Value rank in county
- 3 of 22
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research
Local life
Schools in 34638
10 school locations in 34638: 3 elementary, 2 middle, 3 high, 2 other.
In alphabetical order: ANGELINE ACADEMY OF INNOVATION, BEXLEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, CENTRAL PASCO GIRLS ACADEMY, CHARLES S. RUSHE MIDDLE SCHOOL, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.
- School locations
- 10
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)
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What it costs
Home values
What homes are worth in 34638
In January 2000 the typical home in 34638 was worth $135,145.
Values peaked at $474,336 in August 2022. The latest reading is −11.3% from that peak.
As of August 2026: $420,845, −3.1% over twelve months.
- Typical home value
- $420,845
- 12-month change
- −3.1%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31
Housing pulse
Monthly cost vs. price
Start with the typical home: $420,845. Put 20% down and borrow $336,676 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.
That is $2,331 a month in principal and interest.
The median household here earns $117,931 a year, $9,828 a month. So the payment takes 23.7% of income — rated “affordable” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).
The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 7.6% in 2000.
- Payment share of income
- 23.7%
- Monthly P&I
- $2,331
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31
Lotvox lens
The payment, at each month's rate
Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $809.
In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $998.
By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,165 — +117% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +37%.
- Payment change since 2020
- +117%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Lotvox lens
Home value after inflation
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Reported values rose +211% since January 2000.
General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.
Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $266,723. So the real change is +58%, not +211%.
- Real change since 2000
- +58%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Home values
34638 against its neighbors
34638: +211% since January 2000.
Pasco County: +217% since January 2000.
Florida: +245% since January 2000 — 34638 ran behind it by 34 points.
- Change since 2000
- +211%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Lotvox lens
34638 among Florida ZIPs
Against 1,098 Florida ZIP codes, 34638 sits at the 93rd percentile for affordability (price vs local income).
15th for appreciation (recent value growth); 48th for rental yield (rent vs price).
- Affordability percentile
- 93rd
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
Lotvox lens
Rent or own
Owning the typical home costs about $2,752 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,309 a month.
Price divided by a year's rent: 15.2. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.
- Price-to-rent
- 15.2
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
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What's moving
Housing pulse
Listings Flow Ladder
Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 91 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 110% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.
On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 273. That is 145% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.
Going out — closed sales: about 104 a month. That is 135% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 3% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 97% of its 2015–2019 level.
The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 2.6 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.
The net reading: about 13 more homes sold than came on each month, so inventory is shrinking. The basin is draining.
- Months of supply
- 2.6
Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31
Housing pulse
Sales pace vs. normal
Homes sold: about 104 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).
The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 75 — so sales ran at 139% of it, and below it in 2 of the last 24 months.
- Sales vs 2015–19 level
- 139%
Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
New supply
Homes being permitted
Across Pasco County, builders pulled permits for 7,878 new homes in 2025.
Of those, 79% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).
- Units permitted 2025
- 7,878
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025
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Who's holding, who's leaving
Housing pulse
Migration and inventory
This ZIP sits in Pasco County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 15,554 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 10,044 moved out.
Net across those counties: +5,510 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 273 in June 2026.
Most arrivals came from Hillsborough, FL (8,182 households); most departures went to Hillsborough, FL (4,065).
- Net households (top-10 flows)
- +5,510
Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01
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