Lotvox market story
ZIP 85264
Fort McDowell, Maricopa County, AZ
What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.
- Typical home value
- $1,187,570
- 12-month change
- +7.9%
- Payment share of income
- 135.3%
This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 135.3% (was 133.7%) · Monthly P&I $6,578 (was $6,500)
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Who's going to sell in 85264 this year?
Lotvox Turnover Index
Ranking every home in 85264 by how likely it is to sell
The Lotvox Turnover Index is scored here but not published yet: a ZIP goes live only when its held-out capture beats 20% on at least 30 recorded sales.
Where
85264 in Maricopa County, AZ
85264 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ.
Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 6 of the 38 nearby ZIPs shown.
- Value rank among nearby ZIPs
- 6 of 38
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research
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What it costs
Home values
What homes are worth in 85264
In December 2023 the typical home in 85264 was worth $1,077,059.
Values peaked at $1,187,570 in August 2026. The latest reading is the peak.
As of August 2026: $1,187,570, +7.9% over twelve months.
- Typical home value
- $1,187,570
- 12-month change
- +7.9%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31
Housing pulse
Monthly cost vs. price
Start with the typical home: $1,187,570. Put 20% down and borrow $950,056 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.
That is $6,578 a month in principal and interest.
The median household here earns $58,333 a year, $4,861 a month. So the payment takes 135.3% of income — more than the median household earns — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).
The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 122.7% in 2023.
- Payment share of income
- 135.3%
- Monthly P&I
- $6,578
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31
Lotvox lens
Home value after inflation
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Reported values rose +10% since December 2023.
General prices (CPI-U) rose +8% over the same span.
Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2023 home was worth $1,165,633. So the real change is +2%, not +10%.
- Real change since 2023
- +2%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Lotvox lens
85264 among Arizona ZIPs
Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85264 sits at the 0th percentile for affordability (price vs local income).
98th for appreciation (recent value growth); 0th for rental yield (rent vs price).
- Affordability percentile
- 0th
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
Lotvox lens
Rent or own
Owning the typical home costs about $7,766 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $525 a month.
Price divided by a year's rent: 188.5. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.
- Price-to-rent
- 188.5
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
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What's moving
Housing pulse
Sales pace vs. normal
Homes sold: about 1 a month in July 2026 (Redfin).
The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 0 — so sales ran at ∞% of it, and below it in 6 of the last 24 months.
- Sales vs 2015–19 level
- ∞%
Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-07
New supply
Homes being permitted
Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.
Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).
- Units permitted 2025
- 31,651
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025
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Who's holding, who's leaving
Housing pulse
Migration and inventory
This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.
Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 4 in June 2026.
Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).
- Net households (top-10 flows)
- −94
Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01
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What to do
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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/phoenix/zip/85264