Lotvox market story

ZIP 85254

Scottsdale, Maricopa County, AZ

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$904,759
12-month change
+5.0%
Months of supply
3.2

This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 49.7% (was 49.2%) · Monthly P&I $5,011 (was $4,952)

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Who's going to sell in 85254 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 85254 by how likely it is to sell

Random pick of 20% of parcels20.0%Lotvox Turnover Index top 20%24.3%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 14,997 parcels in 85254, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.

In a held-out test on 37 arm's-length sales, 24.3% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.

Its top 10% alone held 8.1% of those sales, against 10% by chance.

Where

85254 in Maricopa County, AZ

85254 · $904,75985260 · $715,33085054 · $715,45985032 · $450,30085253 · $3,276,16285028 · $704,36285258 · $857,73985050 · $620,86785022 · $462,02585255 · $1,308,00385250 · $613,18885020 · $403,27285018 · $984,70785024 · $483,74285251 · $517,33085259 · $1,141,52685016 · $519,91485023 · $416,40385257 · $546,69585021 · $433,11585014 · $442,12885008 · $373,67685266 · $1,275,07785029 · $356,33285026 · no value published85012 · $640,65285027 · $378,64185013 · $482,15685085 · $632,48185006 · $406,94585015 · $334,41185053 · $378,74685256 · no value published85034 · $284,21485051 · $343,74285268 · $665,83185281 · $392,79885004 · $416,17485201 · $356,78885003 · $581,637 85254
$284K$3.3M typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

85254 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 6 of the 38 nearby ZIPs shown.

Value rank among nearby ZIPs
6 of 38

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 85254

Elementary · 1Middle · 9High · 2Other · 1
Source: NCESSource: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

13 school locations in 85254: 1 elementary, 9 middle, 2 high, 1 other.

In alphabetical order: Cocopah Middle School, Copper Canyon Elementary School, Desert Shadows Elementary School, Desert Shadows Middle School, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
13

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 85254

$0$250K$500K$750K$1.0M200020052010201520202025Peak August 2026 · $904,759Latest · $904,759
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 85254 was worth $210,482.

Values peaked at $904,759 in August 2026. The latest reading is the peak.

As of August 2026: $904,759, +5.0% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$904,759
12-month change
+5.0%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$904,759
Loan at 20% down
$723,807
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$5,011
Median household income, per month
$10,074
Share of income
49.7%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 11.6% → 49.7%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $904,759. Put 20% down and borrow $723,807 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $5,011 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $120,885 a year, $10,074 a month. So the payment takes 49.7% of income — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 11.6% in 2000.

Payment share of income
49.7%
Monthly P&I
$5,011

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$2K$4K$6K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,8896.67% rate · $4,655
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $1,260.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,889.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $4,655 — +146% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +55%.

Payment change since 2020
+146%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$500K$1.0M$1.5M200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +330% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $415,408. So the real change is +118%, not +330%.

Real change since 2000
+118%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

85254 against its neighbors

0100200300400500200020052010201520202025
85254 (2000 = 100)Maricopa County (2000 = 100)Arizona (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

85254: +330% since January 2000.

Maricopa County: +212% since January 2000.

Arizona: +207% since January 2000 — 85254 ran ahead of it by 123 points.

Change since 2000
+330%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

85254 among Arizona ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
14th pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
95th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
15th pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85254 sits at the 14th percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

95th for appreciation (recent value growth); 15th for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
14th

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$5,916
principal + interest $5,011 · taxes & insurance est. $905
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$2,448
Price-to-rent ratio
30.8
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $5,916 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,448 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 30.8. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
30.8

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo3.2 mo3.2 months of supplyNet −0 / month · inventory shrinking
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 78 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 74% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 250. That is 87% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 78 a month. That is 78% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 5% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 95% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.2 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 0 more homes sold than came on each month, so inventory is shrinking. The basin is draining.

Months of supply
3.2

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

05010015020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 78 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 97 — so sales ran at 80% of it, and below it in 20 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
80%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

020,00040,00060,000202240,550202338,292202436,380202531,651
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
31,651

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
25,749
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
25,843
Net households
−94
Top origins
Pinal, AZ6,549
Los Angeles, CA3,562
Pima, AZ3,262
Top destinations
Pinal, AZ10,805
Pima, AZ2,720
Yavapai, AZ2,297
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.

Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 250 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−94

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

Who's holding

How long owners in 85254 have held

0–5 years
2,307
5–10 years
1,824
10–20 years
1,204
20+ years
854
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 6,189 homes with a recorded purchase date, 14% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 37% changed hands in the last five.

24% are owned from a different mailing address, 8% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
14%
Owned from elsewhere
24%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 85254 with 85258The same story, side by side. An agent?Claim 85254 as your farm territory$299/mo · the farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/phoenix/zip/85254