Lotvox market story

ZIP 85253

Paradise Valley, Maricopa County, AZ

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$3,276,162
12-month change
+11.8%
Months of supply
5.0

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 5.0 (was 5.1) · Payment share of income 119.6% (was 118.1%)

1 of 5

Who's going to sell in 85253 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 85253 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index is scored here but not published yet: a ZIP goes live only when its held-out capture beats 20% on at least 30 recorded sales.

Where

85253 in Maricopa County, AZ

85253 · $3,276,16285018 · $984,70785028 · $704,36285250 · $613,18885251 · $517,33085254 · $904,75985258 · $857,73985257 · $546,69585016 · $519,91485008 · $373,67685260 · $715,33085032 · $450,30085026 · no value published85014 · $442,12885020 · $403,27285006 · $406,94585034 · $284,21485012 · $640,65285013 · $482,15685281 · $392,79885054 · $715,45985021 · $433,11585022 · $462,02585050 · $620,86785015 · $334,41185004 · $416,17485003 · $581,63785282 · $460,20585029 · $356,33285256 · no value published85023 · $416,40385201 · $356,78885040 · $319,91785255 · $1,308,00385259 · $1,141,52685024 · $483,74285051 · $343,74285007 · $404,43285283 · $448,61085017 · $300,182 85253
$284K$3.3M typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

85253 is one of 135 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Maricopa County, AZ.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 1 of the 38 nearby ZIPs shown.

Value rank among nearby ZIPs
1 of 38

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 85253

6 school locations in 85253: 1 elementary, 3 middle, 2 high.

In alphabetical order: Chaparral High School, Cherokee Elementary School, EVIT - Chaparral High School, Kiva Elementary School, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
6

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 85253

$0$1.0M$2.0M$3.0M$4.0M200020052010201520202025Peak August 2026 · $3,276,162Latest · $3,276,162
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 85253 was worth $713,387.

Values peaked at $3,276,162 in August 2026. The latest reading is the peak.

As of August 2026: $3,276,162, +11.8% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$3,276,162
12-month change
+11.8%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$3,276,162
Loan at 20% down
$2,620,930
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$18,147
Median household income, per month
$15,179
Share of income
119.6%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 26.0% → 119.6%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $3,276,162. Put 20% down and borrow $2,620,930 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $18,147 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $182,150 a year, $15,179 a month. So the payment takes 119.6% of income — more than the median household earns — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 26.0% in 2000.

Payment share of income
119.6%
Monthly P&I
$18,147

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$5K$10K$15K$20K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $5,1716.67% rate · $16,855
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $4,272.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $5,171.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $16,855 — +226% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +105%.

Payment change since 2020
+226%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$1.0M$2.0M$3.0M$4.0M200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +359% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $1,407,943. So the real change is +133%, not +359%.

Real change since 2000
+133%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

85253 against its neighbors

0100200300400500200020052010201520202025
85253 (2000 = 100)Maricopa County (2000 = 100)Arizona (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

85253: +359% since January 2000.

Maricopa County: +212% since January 2000.

Arizona: +207% since January 2000 — 85253 ran ahead of it by 153 points.

Change since 2000
+359%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

85253 among Arizona ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
0th pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
99th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
1st pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 398 Arizona ZIP codes, 85253 sits at the 0th percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

99th for appreciation (recent value growth); 1st for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
0th

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$21,423
principal + interest $18,147 · taxes & insurance est. $3,276
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,715
Price-to-rent ratio
159.2
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $21,423 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,715 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 159.2. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
159.2

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo5.0 mo5.0 months of supplyNet +6 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 39 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 87% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 166. That is 61% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 33 a month. That is 79% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 5.0 months of supply — inside the 4–6 month balanced range. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 6 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
5.0

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

02040608020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 33 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 35 — so sales ran at 94% of it, and below it in 24 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
94%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

020,00040,00060,000202240,550202338,292202436,380202531,651
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Maricopa County, builders pulled permits for 31,651 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 54% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
31,651

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

4 of 5

Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
25,749
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
25,843
Net households
−94
Top origins
Pinal, AZ6,549
Los Angeles, CA3,562
Pima, AZ3,262
Top destinations
Pinal, AZ10,805
Pima, AZ2,720
Yavapai, AZ2,297
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Maricopa County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 25,749 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 25,843 moved out.

Net across those counties: −94 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 166 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Pinal, AZ (6,549 households); most departures went to Pinal, AZ (10,805).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−94

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

Who's holding

How long owners in 85253 have held

0–5 years
1,027
5–10 years
980
10–20 years
588
20+ years
221
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 2,816 homes with a recorded purchase date, 8% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 36% changed hands in the last five.

29% are owned from a different mailing address, 12% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
8%
Owned from elsewhere
29%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 85253 with 85255The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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