Lotvox market story

ZIP 34251

Manatee County, FL

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$660,347
12-month change
+0.9%
Months of supply
6.0

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 6.0 (was 6.4) · Payment share of income 50.8% (was 50.2%)

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Who's going to sell in 34251 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 34251 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 34251 yet.

Where

34251 in Manatee County, FL

34201 · $619,11034202 · $660,56934203 · $370,19834205 · $267,28334207 · $207,13834208 · $321,76834209 · $388,52934210 · $274,78834211 · $546,12034212 · $519,00334215 · $797,03434216 · $1,876,77934217 · $861,71134219 · $413,27734221 · $352,19734222 · $374,34734243 · $395,84934250 · $749,59134251 · $660,347 34251
$207K$1.9M typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

34251 is one of 19 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Manatee County, FL — 99% of its own area is in the county.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 6 of the 19 with a value.

Value rank in county
6 of 19

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 34251

1 school location in 34251: 1 elementary.

In alphabetical order: MYAKKA CITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
1

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 34251

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200020052010201520202025Peak May 2024 · $672,673Latest · $660,347
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 34251 was worth $166,229.

Values peaked at $672,673 in May 2024. The latest reading is −1.8% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $660,347, +0.9% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$660,347
12-month change
+0.9%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$660,347
Loan at 20% down
$528,278
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$3,658
Median household income, per month
$7,207
Share of income
50.8%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 12.8% → 50.8%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $660,347. Put 20% down and borrow $528,278 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $3,658 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $86,487 a year, $7,207 a month. So the payment takes 50.8% of income — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 12.8% in 2000.

Payment share of income
50.8%
Monthly P&I
$3,658

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K$4K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,3646.67% rate · $3,397
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $995.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,364.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $3,397 — +149% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +57%.

Payment change since 2020
+149%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +297% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $328,070. So the real change is +101%, not +297%.

Real change since 2000
+101%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

34251 against its neighbors

0100200300400500200020052010201520202025
34251 (2000 = 100)Manatee County (2000 = 100)Florida (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

34251: +297% since January 2000.

Manatee County: +209% since January 2000.

Florida: +245% since January 2000 — 34251 ran ahead of it by 52 points.

Change since 2000
+297%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$4,318
principal + interest $3,658 · taxes & insurance est. $660
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$951
Price-to-rent ratio
57.9
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $4,318 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $951 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 57.9. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
57.9

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo6.0 mo6.0 months of supplyNet +2 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 6 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026).

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 28.

Going out — closed sales: about 5 a month. The drain is drawn 8% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 92% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 6.0 months of supply — inside the 4–6 month balanced range. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 2 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
6.0

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

05101520252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 5 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 9 — so sales ran at 56% of it, and below it in 24 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
56%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

05,00010,00015,00020228,45720238,10620247,472202511,015
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Manatee County, builders pulled permits for 11,015 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 64% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
11,015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
6,962
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
5,634
Net households
+1,328
Top origins
Sarasota, FL3,150
Hillsborough, FL1,204
Pinellas, FL1,037
Top destinations
Sarasota, FL2,429
Hillsborough, FL1,308
Pinellas, FL686
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Manatee County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 6,962 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 5,634 moved out.

Net across those counties: +1,328 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 28 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Sarasota, FL (3,150 households); most departures went to Sarasota, FL (2,429).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+1,328

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 34251 with 34201The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/north-port/zip/34251