Lotvox market story

ZIP 28761

McDowell County, NC

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$376,235
12-month change
−0.1%
Months of supply
6.2

This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 36.7% (was 36.3%) · Monthly P&I $2,084 (was $2,059)

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Who's going to sell in 28761 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 28761 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 28761 yet.

Where

28761 in McDowell County, NC

28749 · no value published28752 · $236,44028761 · $376,23528762 · $257,010 28761
$236K$376K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

28761 is one of 4 ZIP codes that lie mostly in McDowell County, NC — 71% of its own area is in the county.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 1 of the 3 with a value.

Value rank in county
1 of 3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 28761

1 school location in 28761: 1 elementary.

In alphabetical order: Nebo Elementary School. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
1

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 28761

$0$200K$400K$600K201620182020202220242026Peak March 2025 · $382,226Latest · $376,235
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2016 the typical home in 28761 was worth $209,865.

Values peaked at $382,226 in March 2025. The latest reading is −1.6% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $376,235, −0.1% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$376,235
12-month change
−0.1%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$376,235
Loan at 20% down
$300,988
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$2,084
Median household income, per month
$5,679
Share of income
36.7%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2016–2026: 20.5% → 36.7%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $376,235. Put 20% down and borrow $300,988 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $2,084 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $68,152 a year, $5,679 a month. So the payment takes 36.7% of income — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 20.5% in 2016.

Payment share of income
36.7%
Monthly P&I
$2,084

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K2016201820202022202420262.68% rate · $9076.67% rate · $1,936
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2016 (3.87%) the payment was $789.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $907.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $1,936 — +113% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +34%.

Payment change since 2020
+113%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K201620182020202220242026
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2016Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +79% since January 2016.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +41% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2016 home was worth $295,063. So the real change is +28%, not +79%.

Real change since 2016
+28%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

28761 against its neighbors

50100150200250201620182020202220242026
28761 (2016 = 100)McDowell County (2016 = 100)North Carolina (2016 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

28761: +79% since January 2016.

McDowell County: +83% since January 2016.

North Carolina: +98% since January 2016 — 28761 ran behind it by 18 points.

Change since 2016
+79%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$2,460
principal + interest $2,084 · taxes & insurance est. $376
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$578
Price-to-rent ratio
54.2
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $2,460 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $578 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 54.2. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
54.2

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo6.2 mo6.2 months of supplyNet +6 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 21 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026).

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 89.

Going out — closed sales: about 14 a month.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 6.2 months of supply — above the 4–6 month balanced range. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 6 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
6.2

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

05101520252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 14 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 8 — so sales ran at 175% of it, and below it in 3 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
175%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

01002003002022182202318620241752025164
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across McDowell County, builders pulled permits for 164 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 100% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
164

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
443
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
452
Net households
−9
Top origins
Buncombe, NC218
Burke, NC92
Rutherford, NC31
Top destinations
Burke, NC169
Buncombe, NC146
Rutherford, NC58
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in McDowell County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 443 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 452 moved out.

Net across those counties: −9 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 89 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Buncombe, NC (218 households); most departures went to Burke, NC (169).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−9

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 28761 with 28762The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/hickory/zip/28761