Lotvox market story

ZIP 80516

Erie, Weld County, CO

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$710,974
12-month change
−1.4%
Months of supply
3.4

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 3.4 (was 3.3) · Payment share of income 29.4% (was 29.1%)

1 of 5

Who's going to sell in 80516 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 80516 by how likely it is to sell

Random pick of 20% of parcels20.0%Lotvox Turnover Index top 20%27.3%
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index ranks the 12,402 parcels in 80516, calibrated on this ZIP's own recorded sales.

In a held-out test on 139 arm's-length sales, 27.3% of the parcels that sold were already in its top 20% on the scoring date. Random chance is 20%.

Its top 10% alone held 11.5% of those sales, against 10% by chance.

Where

80516 in Weld County, CO

80504 · $571,93680514 · $495,01180516 · $710,97480520 · $465,56280530 · $497,39080534 · $505,73980542 · $549,62680543 · $445,58980546 · no value published80550 · $548,05580610 · $439,97780611 · $578,40980612 · $641,81180615 · $520,57980620 · $391,73980621 · $461,95380622 · no value published80623 · $359,25980624 · $618,62980631 · $364,69780634 · $441,77980642 · $697,60180643 · $527,69880644 · $502,59080645 · $452,35680646 · no value published80648 · $599,49580649 · $436,59480650 · $465,61680651 · $540,77380652 · $626,96580729 · no value published80732 · no value published80742 · no value published80754 · no value published 80516
$359K$711K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

80516 is one of 35 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Weld County, CO — 77% of its own area is in the county.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 1 of the 28 with a value.

Value rank in county
1 of 28

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Around 80516

Parks & open space · 27Trails · 20Dining · 29Recreation & fitness · 6Arts & venues · 6Day trips · 11
Source: NPS NRHP · USGS 3DEP · USGS PAD-US · Wikidata · OpenStreetMap · as of 2026-09-21Source: National Park Service, National Register of Historic Places; USGS 3D Elevation Program; USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US); Wikidata (CC0); © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · data as of 2026-09-21

Mapped in and around 80516: 99 places to go — 29 dining, 27 parks & open space, 20 trails.

Places mapped
99

Source: National Park Service, National Register of Historic Places; USGS 3D Elevation Program; USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US); Wikidata (CC0); © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · data as of 2026-09-21

Local life

Schools in 80516

10 school locations in 80516: 5 elementary, 4 middle, 1 high.

In alphabetical order: Aspen Ridge Preparatory School, Black Rock Elementary, Erie Elementary School, Erie High School, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
10

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

2 of 5

What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 80516

$0$250K$500K$750K$1.0M200020052010201520202025Peak July 2022 · $787,313Latest · $710,974
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 80516 was worth $259,513.

Values peaked at $787,313 in July 2022. The latest reading is −9.7% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $710,974, −1.4% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$710,974
12-month change
−1.4%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$710,974
Loan at 20% down
$568,779
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$3,938
Median household income, per month
$13,383
Share of income
29.4%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 10.7% → 29.4%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $710,974. Put 20% down and borrow $568,779 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $3,938 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $160,590 a year, $13,383 a month. So the payment takes 29.4% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 10.7% in 2000.

Payment share of income
29.4%
Monthly P&I
$3,938

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$2K$4K$6K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,8566.67% rate · $3,658
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $1,554.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,856.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $3,658 — +97% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +24%.

Payment change since 2020
+97%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$250K$500K$750K$1.0M200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +174% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $512,176. So the real change is +39%, not +174%.

Real change since 2000
+39%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

80516 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
80516 (2000 = 100)Weld County (2000 = 100)Colorado (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

80516: +174% since January 2000.

Weld County: +178% since January 2000.

Colorado: +199% since January 2000 — 80516 ran behind it by 25 points.

Change since 2000
+174%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$4,649
principal + interest $3,938 · taxes & insurance est. $711
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$2,799
Price-to-rent ratio
21.2
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $4,649 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,799 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 21.2. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
21.2

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

3 of 5

What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo3.4 mo3.4 months of supplyNet +11 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 75 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 97% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 215. That is 129% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 64 a month. That is 89% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 33% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 67% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.4 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 11 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
3.4

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

025507510020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 64 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 63 — so sales ran at 102% of it, and below it in 6 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
102%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

02,0004,0006,0008,00020226,16620233,62720243,46820252,993
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Weld County, builders pulled permits for 2,993 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 67% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
2,993

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

4 of 5

Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
8,838
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
5,777
Net households
+3,061
Top origins
Larimer, CO2,730
Adams, CO2,058
Boulder, CO1,534
Top destinations
Larimer, CO2,021
Adams, CO1,123
Boulder, CO848
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Weld County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 8,838 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 5,777 moved out.

Net across those counties: +3,061 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 215 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Larimer, CO (2,730 households); most departures went to Larimer, CO (2,021).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+3,061

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

County records

On the county rolls

Properties on the assessor roll
11,826
Average assessor market value
$725,144
Typical home value (ZHVI)
$710,974
Assessor vs market
+2.0%
Source: County records · Zillow (ZHVI) · LotvoxSource: County assessor and recorder public records; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

County assessor records list 11,826 properties with a market value here. Their average assessed market value is $725,144; the typical home value is $710,974.

The assessor average sits +2.0% from the market figure — an average against a typical value, so treat it as a check, not a verdict.

Properties on the roll
11,826

Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Who's holding

How long owners in 80516 have held

0–5 years
2,557
5–10 years
3,673
10–20 years
3,616
20+ years
2,355
Source: County records · as of 2026-10-11Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

Of 12,201 homes with a recorded purchase date, 19% have had the same owner for 20 years or more, and 21% changed hands in the last five.

20% are owned from a different mailing address, 2% from out of state.

Held 20+ years
19%
Owned from elsewhere
20%

Source: County assessor and recorder public records · data as of 2026-10-11

5 of 5

What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 80516 with 80642The same story, side by side. An agent?Claim 80516 as your farm territory$199/mo · the farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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