Lotvox market story

ZIP 75154

Ellis County, TX

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$348,717
12-month change
−1.9%
Months of supply
5.2

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 5.2 (was 5.1) · Payment share of income 24.1% (was 23.8%)

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Who's going to sell in 75154 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 75154 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 75154 yet.

Where

75154 in Ellis County, TX

75101 · no value published75119 · $264,94475125 · $291,04775152 · $321,31975154 · $348,71775165 · $349,00375167 · $504,74776041 · no value published76064 · $375,09376065 · $456,19176623 · no value published76651 · $260,24976670 · $257,834 75154
$258K$505K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

75154 is one of 13 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Ellis County, TX — 88% of its own area is in the county.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 5 of the 10 with a value.

Value rank in county
5 of 10

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 75154

11 school locations in 75154: 7 elementary, 3 middle, 1 high.

In alphabetical order: CURTISTENE S MCCOWAN MIDDLE, DOLORES MCCLATCHEY EL, EASTRIDGE EL, FRANK D MOATES EL, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
11

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 75154

$0$100K$200K$300K$400K200020052010201520202025Peak August 2022 · $372,850Latest · $348,717
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 75154 was worth $117,704.

Values peaked at $372,850 in August 2022. The latest reading is −6.5% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $348,717, −1.9% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$348,717
12-month change
−1.9%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$348,717
Loan at 20% down
$278,974
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$1,932
Median household income, per month
$8,013
Share of income
24.1%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 8.1% → 24.1%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $348,717. Put 20% down and borrow $278,974 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $1,932 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $96,150 a year, $8,013 a month. So the payment takes 24.1% of income — rated “affordable” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 8.1% in 2000.

Payment share of income
24.1%
Monthly P&I
$1,932

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $8786.67% rate · $1,794
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $705.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $878.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $1,794 — +104% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +29%.

Payment change since 2020
+104%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +196% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $232,301. So the real change is +50%, not +196%.

Real change since 2000
+50%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

75154 against its neighbors

50100150200250300200920122015201820212024
75154 (2009 = 100)Ellis County (2009 = 100)Texas (2009 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

75154: +147% since January 2009.

Ellis County: +145% since January 2009.

Texas: +108% since January 2009 — 75154 ran ahead of it by 39 points.

Change since 2009
+147%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

75154 among Texas ZIPs

Affordability — price vs local income
49th pct
Appreciation — recent value growth
29th pct
Rental yield — rent vs price
71st pct
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Against 1,763 Texas ZIP codes, 75154 sits at the 49th percentile for affordability (price vs local income).

29th for appreciation (recent value growth); 71st for rental yield (rent vs price).

Affordability percentile
49th

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$2,280
principal + interest $1,932 · taxes & insurance est. $348
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$2,272
Price-to-rent ratio
12.8
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $2,280 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $2,272 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 12.8. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
12.8

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo5.2 mo5.2 months of supplyNet +28 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 82 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 110% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 278. That is 165% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

Going out — closed sales: about 54 a month. That is 86% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months. The drain is drawn 48% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 52% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 5.2 months of supply — inside the 4–6 month balanced range. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 28 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
5.2

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

02040608020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 54 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 60 — so sales ran at 90% of it, and below it in 13 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
90%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

02,0004,0006,00020222,73820232,88420242,97220253,678
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Ellis County, builders pulled permits for 3,678 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 88% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
3,678

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
6,071
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
3,741
Net households
+2,330
Top origins
Dallas, TX3,219
Tarrant, TX1,508
Denton, TX275
Top destinations
Dallas, TX1,509
Tarrant, TX854
Johnson, TX333
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Ellis County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 6,071 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 3,741 moved out.

Net across those counties: +2,330 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 278 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Dallas, TX (3,219 households); most departures went to Dallas, TX (1,509).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+2,330

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 75154 with 75152The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/dallas/zip/75154