Lotvox market story

ZIP 27278

Orange County, NC

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$472,719
12-month change
−2.5%
Months of supply
2.9

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 2.9 (was 3.0) · Payment share of income 30.9% (was 30.5%)

1 of 5

Who's going to sell in 27278 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 27278 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 27278 yet.

Where

27278 in Orange County, NC

27231 · $401,34927243 · $393,82427278 · $472,71927510 · $429,93627514 · $642,82227516 · $605,88827599 · no value published 27278
$394K$643K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

27278 is one of 7 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Orange County, NC — 96% of its own area is in the county.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 3 of the 6 with a value.

Value rank in county
3 of 6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 27278

Elementary · 5Middle · 3High · 4Other · 1
Source: NCESSource: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

13 school locations in 27278: 5 elementary, 3 middle, 4 high, 1 other.

In alphabetical order: A L Stanback Middle, Cedar Ridge High, Central Elementary, Eno River Academy, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
13

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 27278

$0$200K$400K$600K20022007201220172022Peak February 2025 · $487,097Latest · $472,719
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In February 2001 the typical home in 27278 was worth $197,355.

Values peaked at $487,097 in February 2025. The latest reading is −3.0% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $472,719, −2.5% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$472,719
12-month change
−2.5%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$472,719
Loan at 20% down
$378,175
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$2,618
Median household income, per month
$8,485
Share of income
30.9%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2001–2026: 12.9% → 30.9%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $472,719. Put 20% down and borrow $378,175 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $2,618 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $101,821 a year, $8,485 a month. So the payment takes 30.9% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 12.9% in 2001.

Payment share of income
30.9%
Monthly P&I
$2,618

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K200220072012201720222.68% rate · $1,1016.67% rate · $2,432
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in February 2001 (7.05%) the payment was $1,056.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,101.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,432 — +121% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +39%.

Payment change since 2020
+121%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K20022007201220172022
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to February 2001Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +140% since February 2001.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +90% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2001 home was worth $374,673. So the real change is +26%, not +140%.

Real change since 2001
+26%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

27278 against its neighbors

50100150200250200520092013201720212025
27278 (2004 = 100)Orange County (2004 = 100)North Carolina (2004 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

27278: +119% since August 2004.

Orange County: +111% since August 2004.

North Carolina: +125% since August 2004 — 27278 ran behind it by 6 points.

Change since 2004
+119%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$3,091
principal + interest $2,618 · taxes & insurance est. $473
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,496
Price-to-rent ratio
26.3
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $3,091 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,496 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 26.3. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
26.3

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo2.9 mo2.9 months of supplyNet +5 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 46 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 99% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 119.

Going out — closed sales: about 41 a month. That is 92% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 2.9 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 5 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
2.9

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

020406020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 41 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 35 — so sales ran at 117% of it, and below it in 18 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
117%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

05001,0001,500202248520231,01120243752025666
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Orange County, builders pulled permits for 666 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 45% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
666

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

4 of 5

Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
2,756
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
3,658
Net households
−902
Top origins
Durham, NC1,135
Wake, NC583
Alamance, NC395
Top destinations
Durham, NC1,356
Wake, NC758
Alamance, NC607
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Orange County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 2,756 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 3,658 moved out.

Net across those counties: −902 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 119 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Durham, NC (1,135 households); most departures went to Durham, NC (1,356).

Net households (top-10 flows)
−902

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 27278 with 27510The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/durham/zip/27278