Lotvox market story

ZIP 21629

Caroline County, MD

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$362,588
12-month change
+0.2%
Months of supply
3.97

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 3.97 (was 4.2) · Payment share of income 34.4% (was 34.0%)

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Who's going to sell in 21629 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 21629 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 21629 yet.

Where

21629 in Caroline County, MD

21629 · $362,58821632 · $244,26421636 · $338,39621639 · $314,35521640 · $397,64321641 · no value published21655 · $337,42521660 · $368,837 21629
$244K$398K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

21629 is one of 8 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Caroline County, MD.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 3 of the 7 with a value.

Value rank in county
3 of 7

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 21629

2 school locations in 21629: 1 elementary, 1 middle.

In alphabetical order: Denton Elementary School, Lockerman Middle School. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
2

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 21629

$0$100K$200K$300K$400K200020052010201520202025Peak January 2026 · $364,987Latest · $362,588
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 21629 was worth $96,841.

Values peaked at $364,987 in January 2026. The latest reading is −0.7% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $362,588, +0.2% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$362,588
12-month change
+0.2%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$362,588
Loan at 20% down
$290,070
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$2,008
Median household income, per month
$5,843
Share of income
34.4%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 9.2% → 34.4%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $362,588. Put 20% down and borrow $290,070 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $2,008 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $70,117 a year, $5,843 a month. So the payment takes 34.4% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 9.2% in 2000.

Payment share of income
34.4%
Monthly P&I
$2,008

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $8646.67% rate · $1,865
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $580.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $864.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $1,865 — +116% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +36%.

Payment change since 2020
+116%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +274% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $191,126. So the real change is +90%, not +274%.

Real change since 2000
+90%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

21629 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
21629 (2000 = 100)Caroline County (2000 = 100)Maryland (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

21629: +274% since January 2000.

Caroline County: +237% since January 2000.

Maryland: +180% since January 2000 — 21629 ran ahead of it by 94 points.

Change since 2000
+274%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$2,371
principal + interest $2,008 · taxes & insurance est. $363
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,151
Price-to-rent ratio
26.3
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $2,371 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,151 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 26.3. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
26.3

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo4.0 mo3.97 months of supplyNet +0 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 11 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026).

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 41.

Going out — closed sales: about 10 a month. The drain is drawn 1% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 99% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 3.97 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 0 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
3.97

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

0510152020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 10 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 12 — so sales ran at 83% of it, and below it in 18 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
83%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

0255075100202269202369202455202575
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Caroline County, builders pulled permits for 75 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 95% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
75

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
557
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
526
Net households
+31
Top origins
Queen Anne's, MD121
Talbot, MD112
Anne Arundel, MD89
Top destinations
Talbot, MD117
Dorchester, MD110
Queen Anne's, MD90
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Caroline County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 557 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 526 moved out.

Net across those counties: +31 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 41 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Queen Anne's, MD (121 households); most departures went to Talbot, MD (117).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+31

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 21629 with 21636The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

Back to the full ZIP 21629 page

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/caroline-county-md/zip/21629