Lotvox market story

ZIP 21158

Carroll County, MD

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$470,619
12-month change
+1.1%
Months of supply
1.9

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 1.9 (was 1.8) · Payment share of income 28.8% (was 28.4%)

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Who's going to sell in 21158 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 21158 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 21158 yet.

Where

21158 in Carroll County, MD

21048 · $561,35921074 · $434,08521102 · $467,55021157 · $463,60821158 · $470,61921757 · $457,70821776 · $486,75021784 · $560,19821787 · $397,789 21158
$398K$561K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

21158 is one of 9 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Carroll County, MD.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 4 of the 9 with a value.

Value rank in county
4 of 9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 21158

2 school locations in 21158: 2 elementary.

In alphabetical order: Runnymede Elementary, Westminster Elementary. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
2

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 21158

$0$200K$400K$600K200020052010201520202025Peak July 2026 · $470,700Latest · $470,619
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 21158 was worth $164,553.

Values peaked at $470,700 in July 2026. The latest reading is the peak.

As of August 2026: $470,619, +1.1% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$470,619
12-month change
+1.1%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$470,619
Loan at 20% down
$376,495
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$2,607
Median household income, per month
$9,066
Share of income
28.8%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 10.1% → 28.8%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $470,619. Put 20% down and borrow $376,495 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $2,607 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $108,795 a year, $9,066 a month. So the payment takes 28.8% of income — rated “stretched” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 10.1% in 2000.

Payment share of income
28.8%
Monthly P&I
$2,607

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,1626.67% rate · $2,421
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $985.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,162.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,421 — +108% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +31%.

Payment change since 2020
+108%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K$800K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +186% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $324,762. So the real change is +45%, not +186%.

Real change since 2000
+45%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

21158 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
21158 (2000 = 100)Carroll County (2000 = 100)Maryland (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

21158: +186% since January 2000.

Carroll County: +187% since January 2000.

Maryland: +180% since January 2000 — 21158 ran ahead of it by 6 points.

Change since 2000
+186%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$3,077
principal + interest $2,607 · taxes & insurance est. $470
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,925
Price-to-rent ratio
20.4
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $3,077 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,925 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 20.4. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
20.4

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo1.9 mo1.9 months of supplyNet +5 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 28 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026). That is 82% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 44.

Going out — closed sales: about 23 a month. That is 67% of the 2015–2019 level for the same months.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 1.9 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 5 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
1.9

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

01020304020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 23 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 28 — so sales ran at 82% of it, and below it in 23 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
82%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

01002003004002022350202321020241562025153
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Carroll County, builders pulled permits for 153 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 100% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
153

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
2,761
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
2,272
Net households
+489
Top origins
Baltimore, MD842
Howard, MD461
Frederick, MD363
Top destinations
Baltimore, MD593
Frederick, MD352
York, PA313
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Carroll County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 2,761 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 2,272 moved out.

Net across those counties: +489 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 44 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Baltimore, MD (842 households); most departures went to Baltimore, MD (593).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+489

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 21158 with 21102The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

Back to the full ZIP 21158 page

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/baltimore/zip/21158