Lotvox market story

ZIP 21102

Carroll County, MD

What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.

Typical home value
$467,550
12-month change
+0.9%
Months of supply
2.1

This week since 2026-10-08: Months of supply 2.1 (was 2.3) · Payment share of income 26.0% (was 25.7%)

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Who's going to sell in 21102 this year?

Lotvox Turnover Index

Ranking every home in 21102 by how likely it is to sell

Lotvox Turnover Index
Not yet live
Source: County assessor and recorder public records; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · accuracy by ZIP · methodology

The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 21102 yet.

Where

21102 in Carroll County, MD

21048 · $561,35921074 · $434,08521102 · $467,55021157 · $463,60821158 · $470,61921757 · $457,70821776 · $486,75021784 · $560,19821787 · $397,789 21102
$398K$561K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

21102 is one of 9 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Carroll County, MD — 77% of its own area is in the county.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 5 of the 9 with a value.

Value rank in county
5 of 9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 21102

3 school locations in 21102: 2 elementary, 1 high.

In alphabetical order: Ebb Valley Elementary, Manchester Elementary, Manchester Valley High. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
3

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

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What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 21102

$0$200K$400K$600K200020052010201520202025Peak April 2026 · $469,214Latest · $467,550
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 21102 was worth $157,574.

Values peaked at $469,214 in April 2026. The latest reading is −0.4% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $467,550, +0.9% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$467,550
12-month change
+0.9%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$467,550
Loan at 20% down
$374,040
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$2,590
Median household income, per month
$9,961
Share of income
26.0%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 8.8% → 26.0%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $467,550. Put 20% down and borrow $374,040 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $2,590 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $119,535 a year, $9,961 a month. So the payment takes 26.0% of income — rated “affordable” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 8.8% in 2000.

Payment share of income
26.0%
Monthly P&I
$2,590

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$1K$2K$3K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $1,1766.67% rate · $2,405
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $943.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,176.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,405 — +104% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +29%.

Payment change since 2020
+104%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$200K$400K$600K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +197% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $310,989. So the real change is +50%, not +197%.

Real change since 2000
+50%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

21102 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
21102 (2000 = 100)Carroll County (2000 = 100)Maryland (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

21102: +197% since January 2000.

Carroll County: +187% since January 2000.

Maryland: +180% since January 2000 — 21102 ran ahead of it by 16 points.

Change since 2000
+197%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$3,057
principal + interest $2,590 · taxes & insurance est. $467
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,283
Price-to-rent ratio
30.4
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $3,057 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,283 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 30.4. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
30.4

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

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What's moving

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo2.1 mo2.1 months of supplyNet −1 / month · inventory shrinking
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 13 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026).

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 30.

Going out — closed sales: about 14 a month.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 2.1 months of supply — below the 4–6 month range Lotvox treats as balanced. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 1 more homes sold than came on each month, so inventory is shrinking. The basin is draining.

Months of supply
2.1

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

0510152020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 14 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 12 — so sales ran at 117% of it, and below it in 19 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
117%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

01002003004002022350202321020241562025153
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Carroll County, builders pulled permits for 153 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 100% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
153

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

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Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
2,761
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
2,272
Net households
+489
Top origins
Baltimore, MD842
Howard, MD461
Frederick, MD363
Top destinations
Baltimore, MD593
Frederick, MD352
York, PA313
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Carroll County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 2,761 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 2,272 moved out.

Net across those counties: +489 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 30 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Baltimore, MD (842 households); most departures went to Baltimore, MD (593).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+489

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

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What to do

Own a home here?What's my home worth?Enter your address for a county-record value range. Buying?Compare 21102 with 21157The same story, side by side. An agent?See where the index is livethe farm territory and this page's sponsor spot.

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Link: https://lotvox.com/story/baltimore/zip/21102