Lotvox market story
ZIP 78953
Bastrop County, TX
What homes are worth, what they cost to carry, how fast they sell — one step at a time.
- Typical home value
- $547,383
- 12-month change
- −2.4%
- Payment share of income
- 40.9%
This week since 2026-10-08: Payment share of income 40.9% (was 40.5%) · Monthly P&I $3,032 (was $2,996)
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Who's going to sell in 78953 this year?
Lotvox Turnover Index
Ranking every home in 78953 by how likely it is to sell
The Lotvox Turnover Index isn't offered for 78953 yet.
Where
78953 in Bastrop County, TX
78953 is one of 8 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Bastrop County, TX — 65% of its own area is in the county.
Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 1 of the 8 with a value.
- Value rank in county
- 1 of 8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research
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What it costs
Home values
What homes are worth in 78953
In January 2010 the typical home in 78953 was worth $232,512.
Values peaked at $687,338 in June 2022. The latest reading is −20.4% from that peak.
As of August 2026: $547,383, −2.4% over twelve months.
- Typical home value
- $547,383
- 12-month change
- −2.4%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31
Housing pulse
Monthly cost vs. price
Start with the typical home: $547,383. Put 20% down and borrow $437,906 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.
That is $3,032 a month in principal and interest.
The median household here earns $88,852 a year, $7,404 a month. So the payment takes 40.9% of income — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).
The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 17.4% in 2010.
- Payment share of income
- 40.9%
- Monthly P&I
- $3,032
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31
Lotvox lens
The payment, at each month's rate
Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2010 (5.03%) the payment was $1,002.
In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $1,451.
By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $2,816 — +94% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +22%.
- Payment change since 2020
- +94%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Lotvox lens
Home value after inflation
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Reported values rose +135% since January 2010.
General prices (CPI-U) rose +54% over the same span.
Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2010 home was worth $357,213. So the real change is +53%, not +135%.
- Real change since 2010
- +53%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.
Home values
78953 against its neighbors
78953: +135% since January 2010.
Bastrop County: +123% since January 2010.
Texas: +109% since January 2010 — 78953 ran ahead of it by 26 points.
- Change since 2010
- +135%
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Lotvox lens
78953 among Texas ZIPs
Against 1,763 Texas ZIP codes, 78953 sits at the 8th percentile for affordability (price vs local income).
28th for appreciation (recent value growth); 15th for rental yield (rent vs price).
- Affordability percentile
- 8th
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
Lotvox lens
Rent or own
Owning the typical home costs about $3,579 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,682 a month.
Price divided by a year's rent: 27.1. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.
- Price-to-rent
- 27.1
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)
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What's moving
Housing pulse
Sales pace vs. normal
Homes sold: about 1 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).
The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 0 — so sales ran at ∞% of it, and below it in 6 of the last 24 months.
- Sales vs 2015–19 level
- ∞%
Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
New supply
Homes being permitted
Across Bastrop County, builders pulled permits for 2,269 new homes in 2025.
Of those, 68% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).
- Units permitted 2025
- 2,269
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025
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Who's holding, who's leaving
Housing pulse
Migration and inventory
This ZIP sits in Bastrop County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 2,818 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 1,875 moved out.
Net across those counties: +943 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 7 in June 2026.
Most arrivals came from Travis, TX (1,798 households); most departures went to Travis, TX (956).
- Net households (top-10 flows)
- +943
Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01
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What to do
