San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX · Medina County, TX · 191 properties with county records
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Natalia 78039 is in Medina County, TX, part of the San Antonio Metro. The typical home value in Natalia 78039 is $231,419 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 0.2% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 63 days, and 0% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 6 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 78039 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Medina County's 9 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $280,346, so 78039 sits 17% below the county middle. Lotvox holds county assessor records for 191 properties in 78039.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 78039 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 78039 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 63 days with 6 months of supply.
What do homes in 78039 sell for?
The typical home value in 78039 is $231,419 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 0.2% in a year. County records put the median at about $245 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 78039?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 78039 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 78039 compare to Medina County?
78039's typical value of $231,419 compares with a middle value of $280,346 across Medina County's 9 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 78039 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Ownership cost: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), 20% down, 30-year loan at the current mortgage rate, plus 1.2% of the price a year.
Rent to price
Not available for this ZIP — no price-to-rent ratio published here.
76
/100
Stable
stable · balanced · prices easing year-over-year.
Price trend
50
Affordability
95
Valuation
90
Economic health
69
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Seller's Market
DOM: 28d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)0
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)100
Days on Market (5%)20
Seller-favored market in 78039. Expect to pay at or near list price. Payment burden: 19.4% of median income. Median days on market: 28. Renting is approximately 71% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 20.5).
Buyer Caution
Seller's market. Be prepared to pay near list price.
Competitive market similar to 2021-2022 — limited inventory driving prices above fundamentals.
STABLEBALANCED
Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers.
Address lookup
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Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
+4.0%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$240,700
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+55.2%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Bexar+55.2%
Bexar+55.2%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Housing pulse — Housing pulse could not be loaded (429).
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Medina.
Current tiers · 12 months to Invalid Datefloor 10 sales/tier
7 tiers had too few sales at every level and are left blank rather than estimated.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$250k–$500k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$500k–$750k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$750k–$1M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1M–$1.5M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1.5M–$2M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$2M+
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 78039.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
This ZIP code crosses county lines. Property data shows Bexar (65.6%) and Bexar (34.4%). County metrics below are shown separately for each county.
Bexar (65.6%)
Bexar (34.4%)
ZIP 78039→2 counties
12-Month Direction
-14Moderate Deterioration
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
45· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
20.6%
affordable
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Valuation15
+55.2%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
6 mo
balanced
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
43/100
low_risk
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.6%
TX 4.1%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0857d ago
Poverty Rate
14.7%
TX 13.8%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$70,571
TX $78,036US $82,006
Near national averages
Cost of Living (RPP)
96.5
TX 96.5US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$257,675
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA · Coverage derived from property records · Counties with <2% coverage excluded as likely data errors
