Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 5.7% correction for affordability
DOM: 38d (stable) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)40
Supply & Demand (20%)85
Buy vs Rent (15%)100
Cancellation Rate (10%)0
Days on Market (5%)40
Balanced market in 27615. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 31.3% of median income. Median days on market: 38. Renting is approximately 157% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 30.9).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
STABLEBALANCED
Market is holding steady with balanced conditions. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers.
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A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Wake.
Aggregate median -3.6% YoY in this ZIP, but the under-$500k tier is +0.3% — the aggregate is falling while the entry tier rises. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 40.8% to 45.4% (+4.6pp) and the $1M+ share from 10.9% to 11.4% (+0.5pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$198k
$143
12
2.1%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$390k
$236
247
43.3%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$605k
$242
181
31.8%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$845k
$262
65
11.4%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.18M
$306
35
6.1%
ZIP
$1.5M–$2M
$1.63M
$373
14
2.5%
ZIP
$2M+
$2.74M
$477
16
2.8%
ZIP
All sales (the headline median)
$535k
$247
570
100%
ZIP
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 27615.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
Wake County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
County Coverage (3 counties)
ZIP 27615 spans 3 counties
Healthy (28)
This ZIP code crosses county lines. Property data shows Johnston (85.5%), Mecklenburg (12.2%) and Wake (2.3%). County metrics below are shown separately for each county.
Johnston (85.5%)
Mecklenburg (12.2%)
Wake (2.3%)
ZIP 27615→3 counties
Johnston County 85.5%Mecklenburg County 12.2%Wake County 2.3%
12-Month Direction
+4Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
Why this score
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
40· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Economic indicators remain stronger than national averages.
Unemployment Rate
3.0%
NC 3.5%US 4.4%
Lower than most U.S. counties
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0667d ago
Poverty Rate
10.8%
NC 12.9%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$79,838
NC $71,866US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
93.8
NC 93.8US 100.3
Lower than most U.S. counties
Home Value (ZHVI)$344,953
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA · Coverage derived from property records · Counties with <2% coverage excluded as likely data errors