Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 26.7% correction for affordability
DOM: 67d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)75
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)50
Cancellation Rate (10%)75
Days on Market (5%)75
Balanced market in 85120. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 40.0% of median income. A 12% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 67. Renting is approximately 39% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 16.7).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
COOLINGSELLER SLIGHT
Market is cooling with expanding inventory. Sellers hold a slight edge. Prices down 1.9% YoY.
Turnover Index · Coming soonLotvox Turnover Index needs 30 recorded sales before a grade is published.
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Pinal.
Aggregate median +2.1% YoY in Pinal, AZ (county), but the under-$500k tier is -1.1% — the rise is mix shift, not appreciation. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 13.8% to 11.1% (-2.7pp) and the $1M+ share from 11.8% to 12.3% (+0.5pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
6 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$200k
$204
2,858
—
METRO · Phoenix, AZ
$250k–$500k
$379k
$272
15
57.7%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$616k
$253
976
—
COUNTY · Pinal, AZ
$750k–$1M
$844k
$265
459
—
COUNTY · Pinal, AZ
$1M–$1.5M
$1.16M
$311
152
—
COUNTY · Pinal, AZ
$1.5M–$2M
$1.72M
$399
50
—
COUNTY · Pinal, AZ
$2M+
$2.58M
$567
28
—
COUNTY · Pinal, AZ
All sales (the headline median)
$385k
$278
26
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Pinal, AZ), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 85120.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
Pinal County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 85120→Maricopa County, AZ
12-Month Direction
-7Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
41· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden45
33.2%
stretched
Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15
Buy vs Rent6
1.915x
rent advantage
Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15
Valuation11
+70.4%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand17
3.5 mo
balanced
Source: Lotvox MLS · Updated 2026-05-15
Insurance Risk
32/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.8%
AZ 4.5%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0667d ago
Poverty Rate
11.1%
AZ 12.7%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$85,518
AZ $77,970US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
99.3
AZ 99.3US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$460,378
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
