Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX · Hays County, TX · 22,637 properties with county records
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San Marcos 78666 is in Hays County, TX, part of the Austin Metro. The typical home value in San Marcos 78666 is $309,421 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 2.9% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 92 days, and 28% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 7.5 months of supply, sellers hold a slight edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 78666 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Hays County's 7 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $555,623, so 78666 sits 44% below the county middle. Typical rent is $1,418 a month (Zillow Observed Rent Index, September 2026). Lotvox holds county assessor records for 22,637 properties in 78666.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 78666 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 78666 is a seller's market, narrowly. Homes went under contract in a median 92 days with 7.5 months of supply.
What do homes in 78666 sell for?
The typical home value in 78666 is $309,421 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 2.9% in a year. County records put the median at about $248 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 78666?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 78666 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 78666 compare to Hays County?
78666's typical value of $309,421 compares with a middle value of $555,623 across Hays County's 7 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 78666 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Ownership cost: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), 20% down, 30-year loan at the current mortgage rate, plus 1.2% of the price a year.
Rent to price — the investor's question first
18.2×
price to annual rent
Lower is friendlier to a buy-to-let case. This is a ratio of published medians, not a yield on any particular property.
Price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Annual rent: 12 months of Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI).
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 18.5% correction for affordability
DOM: 109d (rising) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)100
Buy vs Rent (15%)50
Cancellation Rate (10%)100
Days on Market (5%)100
Balanced market in 78666. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 34.6% of median income. Median days on market: 109. Renting is approximately 57% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 18.9).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
COOLINGSELLER SLIGHT
Market is cooling with expanding inventory. Sellers hold a slight edge. Prices down 2.9% YoY.
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Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
+4.6%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$323,706
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+30.7%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Hays+30.7%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Housing pulse — Housing pulse could not be loaded (429).
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Hays.
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
2 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row. 5 tiers had too few sales at every level and are left blank rather than estimated.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$250k–$500k
$393k
$216
18
52.9%
METRO · Austin, TX
$500k–$750k
$583k
$236
10
29.4%
METRO · Austin, TX
$750k–$1M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1M–$1.5M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1.5M–$2M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$2M+
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
All sales (the headline median)
$432k
$218
34
100%
METRO · Austin, TX
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 78666.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 78666→Hays County, TX
12-Month Direction
-20Moderate Deterioration
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
48· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
36.8%
severe
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Price-to-rent
18.2x
neutral
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation22
+30.7%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
7.5 mo
buyer's market
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
45/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
3.9%
TX 4.1%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0857d ago
Poverty Rate
9.8%
TX 13.8%US 12.6%
Lower than most U.S. counties
Median Household Income
$85,827
TX $78,036US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
96.5
TX 96.5US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$374,688
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
