Mesa County, CO · 120 properties with county records
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Mesa 81646 is in Mesa, CO, part of the Grand Junction Metro. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 127 days, and 0% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Aug 31, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data sellers hold a slight edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 81646 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Lotvox holds county assessor records for 120 properties in 81646.
Is 81646 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Aug 31, 2026, 81646 is a seller's market, narrowly. Homes went under contract in a median 127 days.
What do homes in 81646 sell for?
The typical home value in 81646 is $460,000 (Zillow Home Value Index, null), up 0.0% in a year. County records put the median at about $135 per square foot (computed Jul 26, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 81646?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 81646 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 81646 compare to Mesa?
Lotvox does not hold enough ZIP-level values in Mesa to compare. The county page lists every covered ZIP.
Where does this 81646 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Cite as: Lotvox ZIP market record, 81646 Mesa, CO, https://lotvox.com/grand-junction/zip/81646
Listings Flow Ladder — 81646
Faucet, basin and drain — new listings in, active inventory, closed sales out.as of Aug 31, 2026
Thin market — under 25 active listings; ratios withheld
Faucet — new listings
0/mo
— of normal (—) · unknown
Basin — active listings
1
— of normal (—) · unknown
Months of supply
—
derived — not published at this grain
Drain — closed sales
—/mo
— of normal (—)
Net — faucet minus drain
—
—
Reading
current
as of 2026-08-31
Compare against:2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 · 0 same-month points
How plugged is the drain? Two definitions, both ours, deliberately not reconciled.
—Absorption vs its own normal— 1 - (closed sales / active listings) / same-month median of that ratio
—Closed sales vs its own normal— 1 - closed sales per month / same-month median closed sales per month
Closed sales over 24 months — two different numbers, deliberately not merged.
—/mofall in the monthly rate (%)— peak 1/mo (2024-05-31) to —/mo now
0transactions that did not happen— summed monthly shortfall vs the same-month normal, over 0 months below it (vs 2015-19 (COVID excluded))
rate_drop_from_peak is a change in the monthly rate; cumulative_shortfall_vs_normal counts transactions not transacted. They are different quantities and are not interchangeable.
2026-08-31
Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox. As of 2026-08-31. Normal = same-month median of monthly rates, minimum 3 same-month points. Source window 3 months (flows shown per month). months_of_supply is not published at this grain (0 non-null rows measured); derived here as active listings / closed sales per month. A fresher supply-only read (0 new, 10 active, 2026-09-01, Realtor.com inventory (county + ZIP), via Lotvox) is available but is NOT used in the net — that source publishes no closed sales, so subtracting across it would mix two vintages.
Should you buy here?
buyer-timing lens
46affordability /100
Buyer leverage is seller slight; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Negotiate Hard
Needs 16% correction for affordability
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)100
Supply & Demand (20%)40
Days on Market (5%)20
Moderate buyer leverage in 81646. Room to negotiate 5-10% below list. Payment burden: 32.6% of median income. Median days on market: 26. Market appears 40% overpriced vs. assessed values.
What to Offer
Offer 5-10% below list. You have room to negotiate.
in 1,295 · out 976 · Mesa County, CO (parent county of this ZIP)
active inventory
as of 2026-06-01 · IRS SOI county-to-county migration flows 2022-2023 + Redfin inventory history
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Mesa.
Aggregate median +2.1% YoY in Mesa, CO (county), but the under-$500k tier is -3.0% — the rise is mix shift, not appreciation. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 73.9% to 70.0% (-3.9pp) and the $1M+ share from 4.8% to 6.1% (+1.3pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
7 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$150k
—
280
21.9%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$250k–$500k
$360k
—
613
48.0%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$500k–$750k
$585k
—
231
18.1%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$750k–$1M
$828k
—
74
5.8%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$1M–$1.5M
$1.20M
—
45
3.5%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$1.5M–$2M
$1.75M
—
13
1.0%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$2M+
$4.92M
—
20
1.6%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
All sales (the headline median)
$385k
—
1,276
100%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Mesa, CO), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 81646.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 81646→Mesa County, COPop: 161,196
12-Month Direction
+8Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
33· Distressed
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
35.7%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.4% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-08
Price-to-rent
32.4x
favors renting
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation7
+75.4%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Insurance Risk
34/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.6%
CO 3.8%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0845d ago
Poverty Rate
11.9%
CO 9.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$71,485
CO $94,510US $82,006
Near national averages
Cost of Living (RPP)
112.5
CO 111.8US 100.3
Higher than many comparable counties
Home Value (ZHVI)$436,551
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
Tenure by age of householder (ACS B25007) is not published below county. Any ZIP figure here is DERIVED from the county's age-specific owner rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure — never read directly.
Derived — this ZIP
No ZIP figure — too few owner households to state a share
DERIVED: this county's age-specific owner-householder rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure (ACS B01001, ZCTA). Tenure by age is not published below county. Assumes the ZIP's rates match its county's; only the age structure is local. THIN: only ~62 estimated owner households here, below the 100 floor — the share is not stated.
