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Mesa 81643 is in Mesa County, CO, part of the Grand Junction Metro. The typical home value in Mesa 81643 is $539,051 (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026), up 6.9% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 7 days, and 36% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Aug 31, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 10.5 months of supply, sellers hold the advantage. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 81643 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Mesa County's 15 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $497,746, so 81643 sits 8% above the county middle. Lotvox holds county assessor records for 891 properties in 81643.
Headline value data through August 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 81643 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Aug 31, 2026, 81643 is a seller's market. Homes went under contract in a median 7 days with 10.5 months of supply.
What do homes in 81643 sell for?
The typical home value in 81643 is $539,051 (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026), up 6.9% in a year. County records put the median at about $125 per square foot (computed Jul 26, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 81643?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 81643 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 81643 compare to Mesa County?
81643's typical value of $539,051 compares with a middle value of $497,746 across Mesa County's 15 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for August 2026.
Where does this 81643 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Not available for this ZIP — no rent or ownership-cost estimate published here.
Rent to price
Not available for this ZIP — no price-to-rent ratio published here.
53
/100
mixed
hot · seller advantage · prices rising year-over-year.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)25
Valuation Gap (25%)100
Supply & Demand (20%)40
Days on Market (5%)0
Balanced market in 81643. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 26.6% of median income. Median days on market: 14. Market appears 51% overpriced vs. assessed values.
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
HOTSELLER ADVANTAGE
Market is running hot with fast-moving inventory. Sellers are firmly in control. Prices up 6.9% YoY.
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Housing pulse — Housing pulse could not be loaded (429).
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Mesa.
Aggregate median +2.1% YoY in Mesa, CO (county), but the under-$500k tier is -3.0% — the rise is mix shift, not appreciation. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 73.9% to 70.0% (-3.9pp) and the $1M+ share from 4.8% to 6.1% (+1.3pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
7 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$150k
—
280
—
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$250k–$500k
$360k
—
613
—
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$500k–$750k
$585k
—
231
—
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$750k–$1M
$828k
—
74
—
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$1M–$1.5M
$1.20M
—
45
—
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$1.5M–$2M
$1.75M
—
13
—
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$2M+
$4.92M
—
20
—
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
All sales (the headline median)
$450k
—
14
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Mesa, CO), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 81643.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 81643→Mesa County, COPop: 161,196
12-Month Direction
+8Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
33· Distressed
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
28.6%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.4% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-08
Price-to-rent
38x
favors renting
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation7
+75.4%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
10.5 mo
buyer's market
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-08-31
Insurance Risk
34/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.6%
CO 3.8%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0845d ago
Poverty Rate
11.9%
CO 9.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$71,485
CO $94,510US $82,006
Near national averages
Cost of Living (RPP)
112.5
CO 111.8US 100.3
Higher than many comparable counties
Home Value (ZHVI)$436,551
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
