Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens
Negotiate Hard
Needs 78.6% correction for affordability
DOM: 118d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)100
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)40
Buy vs Rent (15%)75
Cancellation Rate (10%)100
Days on Market (5%)100
Moderate buyer leverage in 81615. Room to negotiate 5-10% below list. Payment burden: 136.4% of median income. A 74% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 118. Renting is approximately 72% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 20.7).
What to Offer
Offer 5-10% below list. You have room to negotiate.
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Pitkin.
Aggregate median -6.1% YoY in Pitkin, CO (county), but the under-$500k tier is +14.3% — the aggregate is falling while the entry tier rises. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 12.6% to 17.6% (+5.0pp) and the $1M+ share from 67.4% to 63.2% (-4.1pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
7 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$128k
—
24
—
METRO · Glenwood Springs, CO
$250k–$500k
$405k
$420
10
14.7%
COUNTY · Pitkin, CO
$500k–$750k
$620k
—
69
—
METRO · Glenwood Springs, CO
$750k–$1M
$825k
—
35
—
METRO · Glenwood Springs, CO
$1M–$1.5M
$1.15M
—
10
14.7%
COUNTY · Pitkin, CO
$1.5M–$2M
$1.82M
—
12
17.6%
COUNTY · Pitkin, CO
$2M+
$3.21M
—
21
30.9%
COUNTY · Pitkin, CO
All sales (the headline median)
$1.40M
$420
68
100%
COUNTY · Pitkin, CO
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Pitkin, CO), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 81615.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
Pitkin County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
Pitkin County
County-level context for ZIP 81615
Verified — Pitkin County
Moderate (31)
ZIP 81615→Pitkin County, COPop: 16,593
12-Month Direction
+6Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
Why this score
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
35· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.