Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX · Caldwell County, TX · 3,939 properties with county records
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Caldwell 78616 is in Caldwell County, TX, part of the Austin Metro. The typical home value in Caldwell 78616 is $367,798 (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026), down 3.7% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 108 days, and 16% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Aug 31, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 16.3 months of supply, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 78616 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Caldwell County's 8 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $267,692, so 78616 sits 37% above the county middle. Lotvox holds county assessor records for 3,939 properties in 78616.
Headline value data through August 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 78616 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Aug 31, 2026, 78616 is a balanced market. Homes went under contract in a median 108 days with 16.3 months of supply.
What do homes in 78616 sell for?
The typical home value in 78616 is $367,798 (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026), down 3.7% in a year. County records put the median at about $157 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 78616?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 78616 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 78616 compare to Caldwell County?
78616's typical value of $367,798 compares with a middle value of $267,692 across Caldwell County's 8 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for August 2026.
Where does this 78616 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Cite as: Lotvox ZIP market record, 78616 Caldwell, TX, data through August 2026, https://lotvox.com/austin/zip/78616
Listings Flow Ladder — 78616
Faucet, basin and drain — new listings in, active inventory, closed sales out.as of Aug 31, 2026
the basin is fillingnet 4 listings/mo
Faucet — new listings
6/mo
200% of normal (3) · gushing· baseline thin
Basin — active listings
38
292% of normal (13) · overflowing· baseline thin
Months of supply
16.3 mo
derived — not published at this grain
Drain — closed sales
2/mo
140% of normal (2)· baseline thin
Net — faucet minus drain
+4/mo
filling
Reading
current
as of 2026-08-31
Compare against:2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 · 5 same-month points
How plugged is the drain? Two definitions, both ours, deliberately not reconciled.
59%Absorption vs its own normal— 1 - (closed sales / active listings) / same-month median of that ratio
0%Closed sales vs its own normal— 1 - closed sales per month / same-month median closed sales per month
Closed sales over 24 months — two different numbers, deliberately not merged.
3/mofall in the monthly rate (53%)— peak 5/mo (2026-05-31) to 2/mo now
10transactions that did not happen— summed monthly shortfall vs the same-month normal, over 12 months below it (vs 2015-19 (COVID excluded))
rate_drop_from_peak is a change in the monthly rate; cumulative_shortfall_vs_normal counts transactions not transacted. They are different quantities and are not interchangeable.
2026-08-31
Redfin market data (county + ZIP), via Lotvox. As of 2026-08-31. Normal = same-month median of monthly rates, minimum 3 same-month points. Source window 3 months (flows shown per month). months_of_supply is not published at this grain (0 non-null rows measured); derived here as active listings / closed sales per month. A fresher supply-only read (4 new, 43 active, 2026-09-01, Realtor.com inventory (county + ZIP), via Lotvox) is available but is NOT used in the net — that source publishes no closed sales, so subtracting across it would mix two vintages.
Should you buy here?
buyer-timing lens
47affordability /100
Buyer leverage is balanced; weigh payment burden and the 3-lens valuation before bidding.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Negotiate Hard
Needs 14% correction for affordability
DOM: 112d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)25
Supply & Demand (20%)100
Buy vs Rent (15%)100
Days on Market (5%)100
Moderate buyer leverage in 78616. Room to negotiate 5-10% below list. Payment burden: 32.7% of median income. Median days on market: 112. Renting is approximately 128% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 27.4).
What to Offer
Offer 5-10% below list. You have room to negotiate.
in 1,607 · out 990 · Caldwell County, TX (parent county of this ZIP)
active inventory
as of 2026-06-01 · IRS SOI county-to-county migration flows 2022-2023 + Redfin inventory history
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Caldwell.
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
2 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row. 5 tiers had too few sales at every level and are left blank rather than estimated.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$250k–$500k
$393k
$216
18
52.9%
METRO · Austin, TX
$500k–$750k
$583k
$236
10
29.4%
METRO · Austin, TX
$750k–$1M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1M–$1.5M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$1.5M–$2M
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
$2M+
—
—
—
—
fewer than 10 sales at zip, county and metro level
All sales (the headline median)
$432k
$218
34
100%
METRO · Austin, TX
No mix-shift history for this area. no geography from this ZIP up to metro has 8+ quarters of 10+ recorded arms-length sales across at least 4 price tiers. Trends are drawn only from recorded transactions; the last-sale snapshot above cannot carry a time series, because a property that sold twice keeps only its latest sale — which drags the history upward through the tiers and would invent the very mix shift this section exists to test for.
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 78616.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 78616→Caldwell County, TX
12-Month Direction
-40Strong Deterioration
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
55· Fair
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
34.9%
stretched
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.4% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-08
Price-to-rent
27.2x
favors renting
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation17
+40.7%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
16.3 mo
buyer's market
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-08-31
Insurance Risk
45/100
low_risk
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
TX 4.1%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0845d ago
Poverty Rate
13.7%
TX 13.8%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$68,503
TX $78,036US $82,006
Near national averages
Cost of Living (RPP)
96.5
TX 96.5US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$287,466
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
Tenure by age of householder (ACS B25007) is not published below county. Any ZIP figure here is DERIVED from the county's age-specific owner rates applied to this ZIP's own age structure — never read directly.
Derived — this ZIP
No ZIP figure — this ZIP spans 3 counties
NOT DERIVED: this ZIP spans more than one county. Tenure by age is not published below county, and no single county rate applies here. Weighting by area would produce a number, not a measurement - area is a poor proxy for where households are. Each county's own figure is shown instead.
